Value
3.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.1 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.9 |
| PEG | 6.9 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 36.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.01
MTSI · Why this verdict
Why MACOM Technology Solutions Hold (MTSI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MACOM Technology Solutions combines 22% revenue growth and a near-perfect Piotroski score with a wide economic moat in semiconductors, but its current price has already reached the analyst target, leaving negative asymmetry and limiting the risk-reward for new positions.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
MACOM posted 22% year-over-year revenue growth and holds a wide economic moat with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, indicating durable competitive advantages alongside strong fundamental momentum. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% YoY and the Piotroski score stays at 8 or above over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRich valuation at a forward P/E of 56.2x means any growth deceleration could trigger a sharp multiple contraction well before fundamentals deteriorate. | ||
Top-10 customers represent 56.7% of revenue and international customers account for 56.3%, meaning a single large customer loss or geopolitical disruption could materially impair revenue. Bear case | Customer and geographic concentration ratios remain flat or decline below 50% over the next year. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh customer concentration often reflects sticky long-term design-win relationships in semiconductor supply chains, making sudden customer departures unlikely in practice. | ||
With an asymmetry ratio of -0.74 and the stock trading 9.9% above the price target, the current setup offers more downside than upside, making new entry unattractive on a risk-adjusted basis. V9 | The reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5 as the price pulls back to or below the entry zone over the next 12 months. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterStrong momentum (above 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume) can sustain overvalued prices for extended periods in high-growth semiconductor names. | ||
MACOM has beaten consensus earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 1.36%, and has not missed once, reflecting disciplined execution and conservative guidance. Earnings | MACOM beats or meets earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with no misses. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAverage surprise of only 1.36% suggests guidance is set close to actual results, leaving little room for an upward revision cycle that could re-rate the stock. | ||
MACOM posted 22% year-over-year revenue growth and holds a wide economic moat with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, indicating durable competitive advantages alongside strong fundamental momentum.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% YoY and the Piotroski score stays at 8 or above over the next 12 months.
CounterRich valuation at a forward P/E of 56.2x means any growth deceleration could trigger a sharp multiple contraction well before fundamentals deteriorate.
Top-10 customers represent 56.7% of revenue and international customers account for 56.3%, meaning a single large customer loss or geopolitical disruption could materially impair revenue.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Customer and geographic concentration ratios remain flat or decline below 50% over the next year.
CounterHigh customer concentration often reflects sticky long-term design-win relationships in semiconductor supply chains, making sudden customer departures unlikely in practice.
With an asymmetry ratio of -0.74 and the stock trading 9.9% above the price target, the current setup offers more downside than upside, making new entry unattractive on a risk-adjusted basis.
Tripped→StableV9
- Expectation
- The reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5 as the price pulls back to or below the entry zone over the next 12 months.
CounterStrong momentum (above 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume) can sustain overvalued prices for extended periods in high-growth semiconductor names.
MACOM has beaten consensus earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 1.36%, and has not missed once, reflecting disciplined execution and conservative guidance.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- MACOM beats or meets earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with no misses.
CounterAverage surprise of only 1.36% suggests guidance is set close to actual results, leaving little room for an upward revision cycle that could re-rate the stock.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.7 |
| ROA | 4.3 |
| Gross margin | 7.3 |
| Op margin | 9.3 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.0 |
| FCF quality | 3.5 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 43% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 36% YoY
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
4.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.8 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $2,674,673 (0.011% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 5.5 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.1 |
| support resistance | 5.8 |
| 52w position | 4.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.1 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸High IV: 83%
- ▸Above max pain $170
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:22d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.44
Upside
+19.1%
Downside
13.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 22d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.76>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5, ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.44 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.5, and Quality at 7.4; the weakest are Value at 3.5, Momentum at 4.3, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.44 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Growth And Moat
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Customer Geographic Concentration Risk
Trip ifRevenue from top-10 customers rises above 65% of total revenue.
- P3Negative Price AsymmetryTripped
Trip ifStock price drops below $340 (more than 11% below current $384.77).
- P4Earnings Consistency Catalyst
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus by more than 5% in any single quarter.