Value
3.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.8 |
| PEG | 7.6 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 38.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.90
MTSI · Why this verdict
Why MACOM Technology Solutions Hold (MTSI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MACOM Technology Solutions combines 22% revenue growth and a near-perfect Piotroski score with a wide economic moat in semiconductors, but its current price has already reached the analyst target, leaving negative asymmetry and limiting the risk-reward for new positions.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
MACOM posted 22% year-over-year revenue growth and holds a wide economic moat with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, indicating durable competitive advantages alongside strong fundamental momentum. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% YoY and the Piotroski score stays at 8 or above over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRich valuation at a forward P/E of 56.2x means any growth deceleration could trigger a sharp multiple contraction well before fundamentals deteriorate. | ||
Top-10 customers represent 56.7% of revenue and international customers account for 56.3%, meaning a single large customer loss or geopolitical disruption could materially impair revenue. Bear case | Customer and geographic concentration ratios remain flat or decline below 50% over the next year. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh customer concentration often reflects sticky long-term design-win relationships in semiconductor supply chains, making sudden customer departures unlikely in practice. | ||
With an asymmetry ratio of -0.74 and the stock trading 9.9% above the price target, the current setup offers more downside than upside, making new entry unattractive on a risk-adjusted basis. V9 | The reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5 as the price pulls back to or below the entry zone over the next 12 months. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterStrong momentum (above 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume) can sustain overvalued prices for extended periods in high-growth semiconductor names. | ||
MACOM has beaten consensus earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 1.36%, and has not missed once, reflecting disciplined execution and conservative guidance. Earnings | MACOM beats or meets earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with no misses. | →Stable |
| CounterAverage surprise of only 1.36% suggests guidance is set close to actual results, leaving little room for an upward revision cycle that could re-rate the stock. | ||
MACOM posted 22% year-over-year revenue growth and holds a wide economic moat with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, indicating durable competitive advantages alongside strong fundamental momentum.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% YoY and the Piotroski score stays at 8 or above over the next 12 months.
CounterRich valuation at a forward P/E of 56.2x means any growth deceleration could trigger a sharp multiple contraction well before fundamentals deteriorate.
Top-10 customers represent 56.7% of revenue and international customers account for 56.3%, meaning a single large customer loss or geopolitical disruption could materially impair revenue.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Customer and geographic concentration ratios remain flat or decline below 50% over the next year.
CounterHigh customer concentration often reflects sticky long-term design-win relationships in semiconductor supply chains, making sudden customer departures unlikely in practice.
With an asymmetry ratio of -0.74 and the stock trading 9.9% above the price target, the current setup offers more downside than upside, making new entry unattractive on a risk-adjusted basis.
Tripped→StableV9
- Expectation
- The reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5 as the price pulls back to or below the entry zone over the next 12 months.
CounterStrong momentum (above 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume) can sustain overvalued prices for extended periods in high-growth semiconductor names.
MACOM has beaten consensus earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 1.36%, and has not missed once, reflecting disciplined execution and conservative guidance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- MACOM beats or meets earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with no misses.
CounterAverage surprise of only 1.36% suggests guidance is set close to actual results, leaving little room for an upward revision cycle that could re-rate the stock.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 7.1 |
| Op margin | 7.0 |
| Net margin | 8.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 3.7 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 46% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
9.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.2 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 27)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 50%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $27,755,221 (0.136% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.4 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 9.1 |
| 52w position | 2.7 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 9.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.5 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 98%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
2.27
Upside
+30.6%
Downside
13.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.66>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.1; weakest: Value at 3.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.1, Sentiment at 7.3, and Technical at 6.5; the weakest are Value at 3.9, Peer rank at 4.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Growth And Moat
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Customer Geographic Concentration Risk
Trip ifRevenue from top-10 customers rises above 65% of total revenue.
- P3Negative Price AsymmetryTripped
Trip ifStock price drops below $340 (more than 11% below current $384.77).
- P4Earnings Consistency Catalyst
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus by more than 5% in any single quarter.