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ADIAnalog Devices, Inc.Buy Wait6.4·$390.32+3.45%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Analog Devices has delivered a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak amid 37% year-over-year revenue growth, supported by a perfect financial-health score and a wide economic moat, but with the stock just 0.8% below near-term technical resistance and a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 28.9x, the entry point rather than the business quality is the primary question for new capital.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth AccelerationStable
  • Distribution Supply ConcentrationDeteriorating
  • Wide Moat Quality FranchiseStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Wait for pullback to $364.11. At $390.32 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $364.11 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries.

Analog Devices designs and sells high-performance analog, mixed-signal, and digital ICs across four end markets in fiscal 2025: Industrial (45%), Automotive (30%), Consumer (13%), and Communications (13%). Third-party distributors accounted for approximately 56% of fiscal 2025... Read more

$390.32+8.0% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#15 of 54 Semiconductors
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.04%
IncomeYield1.17%(5y avg 1.65%)Payout60.57%
Entry $364.11(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $336.27Target $421.11(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$457.73+17.3%30 analysts
$421.11our TP
$390.32price
$457.73mean
$365
$550

Wait for pullback to $364.11. At $390.32 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $364.11 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 0.8x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=technology 9/10 self excluded). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 19, 202611d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries
Thin upside margin: 8.0%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)56.2
P/E (Fwd)25.9
Mkt Cap$189.9B
EV/EBITDA31.7
Profit Mgn26.0%
ROE9.6%
Rev Growth37.2%
Beta1.21
Dividend1.17%
Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWide

Options Flow

P/C1.64bearish
IV59%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerthird-party distributors56%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to third-party distributors accounted for approximately 56% of our revenue in the year ended November 1, 2025.'
  • HIGHSupplierTSMC and other wafer foundries
    10-K Item 1A: 'We currently source more than half of our wafer requirements annually from third-party wafer foundries, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and others.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders at the March 11, 2026 Annual Meeting approved the Amended and Restated Analog Devices 2020 Equity Incentive Plan, adopted by the Board of Directors on December 10, 2025. Routine compensatory arrangement approval; no officer departure or appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Technology 9/10 self excludedSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $352.73Resistance $400.69

Price Targets

$336
$364
$421
A.Upside+8.0%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1%
Max %2%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! R/R 0.8x at spot < 1.5 minimum
! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-19 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $364.11. At $390.32 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $364.11 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 0.8x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Target $421.11 (+7.9%), stop $336.27 (−16.1%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $421.11 (+8.0% upside). Target $421.11 (+7.9%), stop $336.27 (−16.1%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $336.27.

What are the risks of investing in ADI?

Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries; Thin upside margin: 8.0%.

Is ADI overvalued or undervalued?

Analog Devices, Inc. trades at a P/E of 56.2 (forward 25.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ADI?

37 analysts cover ADI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $458.

What does Analog Devices, Inc. do?Analog Devices designs and sells high-performance analog, mixed-signal, and digital ICs across four end markets in...

Analog Devices designs and sells high-performance analog, mixed-signal, and digital ICs across four end markets in fiscal 2025: Industrial (45%), Automotive (30%), Consumer (13%), and Communications (13%). Third-party distributors accounted for approximately 56% of fiscal 2025 revenue across a portfolio of more than 75,000 SKUs sold to OEM customers globally.

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