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ADIAnalog Devices, Inc.Buy Wait6.8·$361.78-3.40%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Analog Devices has delivered a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak amid 37% year-over-year revenue growth, supported by a perfect financial-health score and a wide economic moat, but with the stock just 0.8% below near-term technical resistance and a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 28.9x, the entry point rather than the business quality is the primary question for new capital.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth AccelerationStable
  • Distribution Supply ConcentrationImproving
  • Wide Moat Quality FranchiseStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitGrowthModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $364.11 but weak momentum; recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries.

Analog Devices designs and sells high-performance analog, mixed-signal, and digital ICs across four end markets in fiscal 2025: Industrial (45%), Automotive (30%), Consumer (13%), and Communications (13%). Third-party distributors accounted for approximately 56% of fiscal 2025... Read more

$361.78+19.6% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#5 of 54 Semiconductors
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.37%
IncomeYield1.17%(5y avg 1.65%)Payout49.64%sustainable
Entry $364.11(Buy At Market Sticky)Stop $341.53Target $432.63(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 3.1:1
Analyst target$470.25+30.0%32 analysts
$432.63our TP
$361.78price
$470.25mean
$675

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $364.11 but weak momentum; recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.56, quality 7.6/10, growth 10.0/10). (held at prior verdict — engine reading is near the momentum/RSI threshold; will commit on clearer signal). Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 9/11 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=technology 9/10 self excluded). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 24, 202686d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)42.9
P/E (Fwd)22.1
Mkt Cap$175.3B
EV/EBITDA27.2
Profit Mgn29.8%
ROE12.2%
Rev Growth39.6%
Beta1.21
Dividend1.17%
Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.31bullish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$500+38.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerthird-party distributors56%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to third-party distributors accounted for approximately 56% of our revenue in the year ended November 1, 2025.'
  • HIGHSupplierTSMC and other wafer foundries
    10-K Item 1A: 'We currently source more than half of our wafer requirements annually from third-party wafer foundries, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and others.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders at the March 11, 2026 Annual Meeting approved the Amended and Restated Analog Devices 2020 Equity Incentive Plan, adopted by the Board of Directors on December 10, 2025. Routine compensatory arrangement approval; no officer departure or appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.0>=4.5A.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(4)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 86d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Technology 9/10 self excludedSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $353.11Resistance $396.95

Price Targets

$342
$364
$433
A.Upside+19.6%
A.R:R3.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.4%
Max %2.8%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts37
Consensus4.2/5
Avg Target$470

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-24 (86d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADI stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $364.11 but weak momentum; recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.56, quality 7.6/10, growth 10.0/10). (held at prior verdict — engine reading is near the momentum/RSI threshold; will commit on clearer signal). Target $432.63 (+19.6%), stop $341.53 (−5.9%), A.R:R 3.1:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $432.63 (+19.6% upside). Target $432.63 (+19.6%), stop $341.53 (−5.9%), A.R:R 3.1:1. Stop-loss: $341.53.

What are the risks of investing in ADI?

Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries.

Is ADI overvalued or undervalued?

Analog Devices, Inc. trades at a P/E of 42.9 (forward 22.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ADI?

37 analysts cover ADI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $470.

What does Analog Devices, Inc. do?Analog Devices designs and sells high-performance analog, mixed-signal, and digital ICs across four end markets in...

Analog Devices designs and sells high-performance analog, mixed-signal, and digital ICs across four end markets in fiscal 2025: Industrial (45%), Automotive (30%), Consumer (13%), and Communications (13%). Third-party distributors accounted for approximately 56% of fiscal 2025 revenue across a portfolio of more than 75,000 SKUs sold to OEM customers globally.

Related stocks: SKHY (SK hynix Inc.) · AVGO (Broadcom Inc.) · NXPI (NXP Semiconductors N.V.) · MPWR (Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.) · CRDO (Credo Technology Group Holding )
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