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ADIAnalog Devices, Inc.Buy Wait5.9·$403.33-0.14%
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Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Wait for pullback to $386.49. At $403.33 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $386.49 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC.

Analog Devices designs and sells precision analog, mixed-signal, and DSP ICs serving industrial (45%), automotive (30%), consumer (13%), and communications (13%) end markets globally, with manufacturing in the US, Ireland, and Southeast Asia. Revenue is generated through direct... Read more

$403.33+7.3% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#7 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield1.97%
IncomeYield1.09%(5y avg 1.66%)Payout60.57%
Entry $386.49(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $344.85Target $414.95(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 0.3:1Setup A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$451.03+11.8%31 analysts
$414.95our TP
$403.33price
$451.03mean
$363
$515

Wait for pullback to $386.49. At $403.33 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $386.49 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.88, quality 7.5/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.35, news boost analyst cluster(6), earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 19, 202671d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.5 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)59.9
P/E (Fwd)27.3
Mkt Cap$196.7B
EV/EBITDA32.8
Profit Mgn26.0%
ROE9.6%
Rev Growth37.2%
Beta1.18
Dividend1.09%
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWide

Options Flow

P/C0.15bullish
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$200-50.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerthird-party distributors56%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to third-party distributors accounted for approximately 56% of our revenue in the year ended November 1, 2025'
  • HIGHSupplierTSMC
    10-K Item 1A: 'We currently source more than half of our wafer requirements annually from third-party wafer foundries, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOW
    At the 2026 Annual Meeting on March 11, 2026, shareholders approved the Amended and Restated 2020 Equity Incentive Plan. Compensatory arrangement; no officer departure or appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.2
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.0
Forward Pe
4.5
Analyst Target
5.0
Peg Ratio
7.7
Forward P/E: 27.3xPEG: 0.88
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.35NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(6)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $380.18Resistance $439.70

Price Targets

$345
$386
$415
A.Upside+2.9%
A.R:R0.3:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.6% upside)
! momentum at 2.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-19 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $386.49. At $403.33 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $386.49 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.88, quality 7.5/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $414.95 (+2.9%), stop $344.85 (−17.0%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $414.95 (+7.3% upside). Target $414.95 (+2.9%), stop $344.85 (−17.0%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $344.85.

What are the risks of investing in ADI?

Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is ADI overvalued or undervalued?

Analog Devices, Inc. trades at a P/E of 59.9 (forward 27.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ADI?

39 analysts cover ADI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $451.

What does Analog Devices, Inc. do?Analog Devices designs and sells precision analog, mixed-signal, and DSP ICs serving industrial (45%), automotive...

Analog Devices designs and sells precision analog, mixed-signal, and DSP ICs serving industrial (45%), automotive (30%), consumer (13%), and communications (13%) end markets globally, with manufacturing in the US, Ireland, and Southeast Asia. Revenue is generated through direct sales (~44%) and third-party distributors (~56%), with products including 75,000+ SKUs sold to OEMs worldwide.

Related stocks: CRDO (Credo Technology Group Holding ) · AVGO (Broadcom Inc.) · MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) · ALAB (Astera Labs, Inc.) · NXPI (NXP Semiconductors N.V.)
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