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ADIAnalog Devices, Inc.Buy Wait6.2·$391.80+1.26%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Analog Devices has delivered a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak amid 37% year-over-year revenue growth, supported by a perfect financial-health score and a wide economic moat, but with the stock just 0.8% below near-term technical resistance and a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 28.9x, the entry point rather than the business quality is the primary question for new capital.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth AccelerationStable
  • Distribution Supply ConcentrationStable
  • Wide Moat Quality FranchiseStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Wait for pullback to $371.37. At $391.80 the A.R:R is 0.6:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $371.37 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries.

Analog Devices designs and sells high-performance analog, mixed-signal, and digital ICs across four end markets in fiscal 2025: Industrial (45%), Automotive (30%), Consumer (13%), and Communications (13%). Third-party distributors accounted for approximately 56% of fiscal 2025... Read more

$391.80+11.8% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#5 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.05%
IncomeYield1.14%(5y avg 1.66%)Payout60.57%
Entry $371.37(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $329.37Target $416.15(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 0.6:1Setup A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$452.33+15.5%30 analysts
$416.15our TP
$391.80price
$452.33mean
$363
$515

Wait for pullback to $371.37. At $391.80 the A.R:R is 0.6:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $371.37 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.85, quality 7.5/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.80, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 19, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.71)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries
Thin upside margin: 6.2%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)57.5
P/E (Fwd)26.2
Mkt Cap$188.5B
EV/EBITDA31.5
Profit Mgn26.0%
ROE9.6%
Rev Growth37.2%
Beta1.18
Dividend1.14%
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWide

Options Flow

P/C1.43bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$215-45.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerthird-party distributors56%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to third-party distributors accounted for approximately 56% of our revenue in the year ended November 1, 2025.'
  • HIGHSupplierTSMC and other wafer foundries
    10-K Item 1A: 'We currently source more than half of our wafer requirements annually from third-party wafer foundries, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and others.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders at the March 11, 2026 Annual Meeting approved the Amended and Restated Analog Devices 2020 Equity Incentive Plan, adopted by the Board of Directors on December 10, 2025. Routine compensatory arrangement approval; no officer departure or appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.80EARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $382.82Resistance $445.91

Price Targets

$329
$371
$416
A.Upside+6.2%
A.R:R0.6:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! momentum at 4.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-19 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $371.37. At $391.80 the A.R:R is 0.6:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $371.37 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.85, quality 7.5/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $416.15 (+6.2%), stop $329.37 (−19.0%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $416.15 (+11.8% upside). Target $416.15 (+6.2%), stop $329.37 (−19.0%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $329.37.

What are the risks of investing in ADI?

Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries; Thin upside margin: 6.2%.

Is ADI overvalued or undervalued?

Analog Devices, Inc. trades at a P/E of 57.5 (forward 26.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ADI?

39 analysts cover ADI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $452.

What does Analog Devices, Inc. do?Analog Devices designs and sells high-performance analog, mixed-signal, and digital ICs across four end markets in...

Analog Devices designs and sells high-performance analog, mixed-signal, and digital ICs across four end markets in fiscal 2025: Industrial (45%), Automotive (30%), Consumer (13%), and Communications (13%). Third-party distributors accounted for approximately 56% of fiscal 2025 revenue across a portfolio of more than 75,000 SKUs sold to OEM customers globally.

Related stocks: AVGO (Broadcom Inc.) · CRDO (Credo Technology Group Holding ) · MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) · MPWR (Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.) · ALAB (Astera Labs, Inc.)
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