Vail Resorts faces a perfect 4-quarter earnings miss streak and revenues declining -7% year-over-year, with 34% of its float sold short, while its business is heavily concentrated in mountain resort operations and season pass products, creating a challenging near-term outlook.
Thesis pillars
- Mountain Passproduct Concentration→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Miss Streak→Stable
- High Short Interest Squeeze Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
Sell if holding. At $140.68, A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Mountain segment (89.0%); Concentration risk — Product: pass products (lift revenue) (65.0%).
Vail Resorts operates 42 destination mountain resorts and ski areas across North America, Australia, and Switzerland in Mountain (89% of Fiscal 2025 net revenue), Lodging (11%), and Real Estate segments. The company generates revenue through lift tickets, pass products, ski... Read more
Sell if holding. At $140.68, A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Mountain segment (89.0%); Concentration risk — Product: pass products (lift revenue) (65.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 87d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Vail Resorts, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Vail Resorts (MTN) Q3 2026 Preview. EPS Est. $9.05; Reports on June 8 - AlphaStreet — AlphaStreet neutral
- NEWS What Analyst Projections for Key Metrics Reveal About Vail Resorts (MTN) Q3 Earnings - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Analysts estimate Vail Resorts (MTN) to report a decline in earnings: What to look out for - MSN — MSN negative
- NEWS Why The Narrative Around MTN Group (JSE:MTN) Is Evolving Without New Analyst Updates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Analysts Estimate Vail Resorts (MTN) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductMountain segment89%10-K Item 1: 'Mountain, Lodging and Real Estate, which represented approximately 89%, 11% and 0%, respectively, of our net revenue for our fiscal year ended July 31, 2025'
- HIGHProductpass products (lift revenue)65%10-K Item 1: 'our pass products generated approximately 65% of our total lift revenue and approximately 75% of total visitation (excluding complimentary access)'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $140.68, A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Mountain segment (89.0%); Concentration risk — Product: pass products (lift revenue) (65.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $130.83. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $142.90 (+1.6% upside). Prior stop was $130.83. Stop-loss: $130.83.
Concentration risk — Product: Mountain segment (89.0%); Concentration risk — Product: pass products (lift revenue) (65.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Vail Resorts, Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.3 (forward 22.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover MTN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $149.
What does Vail Resorts, Inc. do?Vail Resorts operates 42 destination mountain resorts and ski areas across North America, Australia, and Switzerland in...
Vail Resorts operates 42 destination mountain resorts and ski areas across North America, Australia, and Switzerland in Mountain (89% of Fiscal 2025 net revenue), Lodging (11%), and Real Estate segments. The company generates revenue through lift tickets, pass products, ski school, dining, retail/rental, and lodging; pass products including the Epic Pass accounted for approximately 65% of total lift revenue in Fiscal 2025.