MSC Industrial Direct has a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and earnings estimates rising 31.6% in the past 30 days, but the stock has surpassed analyst price targets and trades with negative price momentum, offering limited near-term risk-reward for new buyers.
Thesis pillars
- Rising Earnings Estimates→Stable
- Top Tier Financial Health→Stable
- Negative Momentum Price Overshoot→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
MSC Industrial Direct Company, (MSM) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $120.78 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
MSC Industrial Direct Company is a North American distributor of metalworking and maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) products and services, serving customers from individual machine shops to Fortune 1000 manufacturers and government agencies through more than 7,000... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $120.78 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 47d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — MSC Industrial Direct Company,
Latest news
- NEWS MSC Industrial (MSM) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc (MSM) Stock Up 3.7% but GF Value Sa - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS MSC Industrial (MSM) Q3 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Why Is MSC Industrial Stock Gaining Wednesday? - MSC Industrial Direct Co (NYSE:MSM) - Benzinga — Benzinga positive
- NEWS MSC Industrial shares jump after third-quarter earnings top expectations (MSM) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-09-04T15:02:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerU.S. government and public sector10%10-K Item 1A: 'As a supplier to the U.S. government and public sector, which represented approximately 10% of the Company's total revenue in fiscal year 2025, we must comply with certain laws and regulations'
- LOWProductMSC exclusive brand SKUs15%10-K Item 1: 'SKUs sold under MSC exclusive brands represent approximately 15% of net sales.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-10Item 5.02MEDIUMSVP, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary Neal Dongre voluntarily resigned, continuing in his role until his successor joins the company and through the remainder of fiscal 2026; the company states no disagreement over operations, policies, or practices.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $120.78 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $114.71. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $123.21 (-5.6% upside). Prior stop was $114.71. Stop-loss: $114.71.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.
MSC Industrial Direct Company, trades at a P/E of 28.1 (forward 21.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover MSM with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $131.
What does MSC Industrial Direct Company, do?MSC Industrial Direct Company is a North American distributor of metalworking and maintenance, repair and operations...
MSC Industrial Direct Company is a North American distributor of metalworking and maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) products and services, serving customers from individual machine shops to Fortune 1000 manufacturers and government agencies through more than 7,000 associates. The company offers approximately 2.5 million SKUs via five customer fulfillment centers, nine regional inventory centers, and 38 warehouses across the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, with government and public sector customers representing approximately 10% of fiscal 2025 revenue.