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MSC Industrial Direct Company, (MSM) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $102.82, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.2% away).

MSC is a leading North American distributor of a broad range of metalworking and maintenance, repair and operations ("MRO") products and services. With a history of driving innovation in industrial product distribution for more than 80 years, we help solve our manufacturing... Read more

$102.82+0.2% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#11 of 17 Industrial Distribution
Stop $97.52Target $102.99(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst target$93.50-9.1%6 analysts
$102.99our TP
$102.82price
$93.50mean
$67
$117

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $102.82, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.2% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.2% away)
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.1
P/E (Fwd)20.4
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA14.6
Profit Mgn5.4%
ROE15.0%
Rev Growth2.9%
Beta0.78
Dividend3.45%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C5.33bearish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$75-27.1% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-15Item 5.02MEDIUM
    MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC. | | | Date: | April 15, 2026 | By: | /s/ GREG CLARK | | Name: | Greg Clark | | Title: | Vice President and [... truncated]
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    . Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers On March 2, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.2
Earnings Growth
3.7
GatesA.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $88.33Resistance $105.09

Price Targets

$98
$103
A.Upside+0.2%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-20.9% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-01 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $102.82, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.2% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $102.99 (+0.2%), stop $97.52 (−5.4%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $102.99 (+0.2% upside). Target $102.99 (+0.2%), stop $97.52 (−5.4%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Stop-loss: $97.52.

What are the risks of investing in MSM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.2% away); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is MSM overvalued or undervalued?

MSC Industrial Direct Company, trades at a P/E of 27.1 (forward 20.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MSM?

16 analysts cover MSM with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $94.

What does MSC Industrial Direct Company, do?MSC is a leading North American distributor of a broad range of metalworking and maintenance, repair and operations...

MSC is a leading North American distributor of a broad range of metalworking and maintenance, repair and operations ("MRO") products and services. With a history of driving innovation in industrial product distribution for more than 80 years, we help solve our manufacturing customers' metalworking and MRO challenges.

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