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MSC Industrial Direct Company, (MSM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellHigh Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $103.99 — A.R:R is negative (-2.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.3% away).

MSC is a leading North American distributor of a broad range of metalworking and maintenance, repair and operations ("MRO") products and services. With a history of driving innovation in industrial product distribution for more than 80 years, we help solve our manufacturing... Read more

$103.99+2.4% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#16 of 17 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.21%
IncomeYield3.35%(5y avg 3.70%)Payout92.47%at-risk
Stop $98.71Target $106.59(resistance)A.R:R -2.7:1
Analyst target$93.50-10.1%6 analysts
$106.59our TP
$103.99price
$93.50mean
$67
$117

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $103.99 — A.R:R is negative (-2.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.3% away). Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — MSC Industrial Direct Company,

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.3% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.9
P/E (Fwd)21.0
Mkt Cap$5.8B
EV/EBITDA15.0
Profit Mgn5.4%
ROE15.0%
Rev Growth2.9%
Beta0.81
Dividend3.35%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C6.87bearish
IV37%normal
Max Pain$45-56.7% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-15Item 5.02MEDIUM
    MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC. | | | Date: | April 15, 2026 | By: | /s/ GREG CLARK | | Name: | Greg Clark | | Title: | Vice President and [... truncated]
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    . Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers On March 2, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.2
Earnings Growth
3.7
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -2.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 41d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $95.71Resistance $108.77

Price Targets

$99
$107
A.Upside+2.5%
A.R:R-2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-21.8% upside)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-01 (41d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $103.99 — A.R:R is negative (-2.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.3% away). Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $98.71. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

What is the MSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $106.59 (+2.4% upside). Prior stop was $98.71. Stop-loss: $98.71.

What are the risks of investing in MSM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Is MSM overvalued or undervalued?

MSC Industrial Direct Company, trades at a P/E of 27.9 (forward 21.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MSM?

16 analysts cover MSM with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $94.

What does MSC Industrial Direct Company, do?MSC is a leading North American distributor of a broad range of metalworking and maintenance, repair and operations...

MSC is a leading North American distributor of a broad range of metalworking and maintenance, repair and operations ("MRO") products and services. With a history of driving innovation in industrial product distribution for more than 80 years, we help solve our manufacturing customers' metalworking and MRO challenges.

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