Value
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.4 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.7 |
| PEG | 4.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.7x
- ▸PEG: 2.52
MSM · Why this verdict
Why MSC Industrial Direct Company, (MSM) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Analyst earnings estimates for MSC Industrial have risen 31.6% over the past 30 days, signaling that the professional investment community is becoming more optimistic about the company's near-term earnings power. Sentiment breakdown | Earnings per share estimates for fiscal 2027 continue rising by at least 10% over the next 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRising estimates may simply reflect the upcoming earnings event in 15 days rather than a durable revision cycle, and the most recent quarter was a miss at -1.94%, indicating the business is not consistently executing above expectations. | ||
The company achieves a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, indicating strength across all nine measures of financial health including profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above in the next two annual or semi-annual assessments. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect Piotroski F-Score does not capture competitive positioning, and a quality score of only 5.4/10 overall alongside below-average growth suggests the high financial health reading may not translate into superior earnings growth. | ||
The stock has surpassed analyst price targets with only 2.2% upside to resistance at $116.75 and a negative asymmetry ratio of -2.4, meaning downside risk of 5.5% to $107.96 far outweighs any near-term price gain. Targets | A pullback to near $108 creates a new entry point with improved risk-reward of at least 2-to-1 upside-to-downside. | →Stable |
| CounterNear-term earnings in only 15 days could produce a positive surprise that drives the stock meaningfully above the current resistance level, rewarding holders despite the current negative risk-reward. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.6%, and earnings are due in just 15 days, creating a near-term potential catalyst if the streak continues. Earnings | The company beats earnings estimates by at least 3% in the upcoming July 2026 quarter report. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss at -1.94%, and with the stock already above analyst targets, even a beat may not drive further price appreciation given the stretched valuation. | ||
Analyst earnings estimates for MSC Industrial have risen 31.6% over the past 30 days, signaling that the professional investment community is becoming more optimistic about the company's near-term earnings power.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings per share estimates for fiscal 2027 continue rising by at least 10% over the next 6 months.
CounterRising estimates may simply reflect the upcoming earnings event in 15 days rather than a durable revision cycle, and the most recent quarter was a miss at -1.94%, indicating the business is not consistently executing above expectations.
The company achieves a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, indicating strength across all nine measures of financial health including profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above in the next two annual or semi-annual assessments.
CounterA perfect Piotroski F-Score does not capture competitive positioning, and a quality score of only 5.4/10 overall alongside below-average growth suggests the high financial health reading may not translate into superior earnings growth.
The stock has surpassed analyst price targets with only 2.2% upside to resistance at $116.75 and a negative asymmetry ratio of -2.4, meaning downside risk of 5.5% to $107.96 far outweighs any near-term price gain.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- A pullback to near $108 creates a new entry point with improved risk-reward of at least 2-to-1 upside-to-downside.
CounterNear-term earnings in only 15 days could produce a positive surprise that drives the stock meaningfully above the current resistance level, rewarding holders despite the current negative risk-reward.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.6%, and earnings are due in just 15 days, creating a near-term potential catalyst if the streak continues.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats earnings estimates by at least 3% in the upcoming July 2026 quarter report.
CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss at -1.94%, and with the stock already above analyst targets, even a beat may not drive further price appreciation given the stretched valuation.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MSC Industrial Direct has a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and earnings estimates rising 31.6% in the past 30 days, but the stock has surpassed analyst price targets and trades with negative price momentum, offering limited near-term risk-reward for new buyers.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.4 |
| ROA | 5.8 |
| Gross margin | 4.2 |
| Op margin | 4.1 |
| Net margin | 3.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 8.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 5.3 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 4.6 |
| put call | 7.7 |
| implied vol | 5.1 |
| beta | 8.1 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 9.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.2 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Estimates up 31.6% (30d)
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:110d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.54
Upside
-11.0%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:8.3>=5.5. Top dim: Momentum at 8.3; weakest: Technical at 4.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.3, Growth at 7.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 4.5, Value at 4.6, and Peer rank at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.54 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rising Earnings Estimates
Trip ifAnalyst earnings estimates for the next fiscal year decline by more than 10% from current levels over any 60-day window.
- P2Top Tier Financial Health
Trip ifReported gross margin falls below 30% in any quarter, indicating deterioration in the financial health indicators underlying the Piotroski score.
- P3Negative Momentum Price Overshoot
Trip ifStock price drops below $107.96, the stop-loss support level, on a closing basis.
- P4Earnings Beat Streak Upcoming Catalyst
Trip ifActual EPS falls below the consensus estimate by more than 5% in the upcoming quarterly report due in 15 days.