Mattel screens attractively valued at a forward P/E of 9.0x with a PEG of 1.13, offering roughly 13% upside to the analyst price target against about 6% downside, but the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with a death cross in place, below all moving averages, and volume showing distribution rather than accumulation. The earnings record is mixed — a large recent beat followed by two consecutive misses before it — making the valuation case contingent on technical improvement before the discount closes.
Thesis pillars
- Favorable Risk Reward Geometry→Stable
- Valuation Discount To Peers→Stable
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Mattel, Inc. (MAT) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.39 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Mattel designs and markets toys globally under owned brands including Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and UNO, supplemented by licenses from Disney, Microsoft, and NBCUniversal, generating approximately $5.3 billion in net sales in 2025. The three largest retail... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.39 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Mattel, Inc.
About Mattel, Inc.
Mattel's four-category brand portfolio—anchored by Barbie (sold since 1959), Hot Wheels (since 1968), Fisher-Price, and UNO—generated approximately $5.3 billion in net sales in 2025. Licensed properties from Disney, NBCUniversal, Microsoft, and WWE contributed $264.6 million in royalty expense. The company employed approximately 31,000 people across 34 countries, with roughly 85% of the workforce outside the United States.
Mattel distributes through mass retailers, discount stores, specialty toy stores, department stores, and direct consumer channels including American Girl flagship stores in Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York. Walmart ($1.08 billion), Target ($0.63 billion), and Amazon ($0.52 billion) collectively represented 42% of worldwide consolidated net sales in 2025; the top 10 customers accounted for 49%. The company competes with Hasbro, LEGO, The Pokémon Company, and Spin Master in North America. Revenue is highly seasonal—a large portion of retailer purchasing occurs in the third and fourth quarters ahead of the holiday season, creating first-three-quarter inventory build-up risk. Manufacturing operates across company-owned and third-party facilities in China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, and Thailand, with core products concentrated in company-owned plants.
Show full overview
Customer concentration poses a structural challenge: Walmart, Target, and Amazon together represent 42% of worldwide net sales while each actively develops private-label and exclusive-branded toys that compete directly with Mattel-branded products. Customers make no binding long-term volume commitments, and retailer algorithms controlling digital shelf placement may deprioritize Mattel lines. In April 2026, Mattel disclosed via Form 8-K that President and Chief Commercial Officer Steve Totzke would depart effective May 1, 2026, with Sanjay Luthra named as successor CCO—a leadership transition occurring as tariff uncertainty and retailer private-label competition intensify.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
From Mattel, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Mattel, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Mattel (MAT) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS MATTEL ($MAT) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS Mattel (MAT) Reports Q1 Loss, Beats Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) Posts Better-Than-Expected Sales In Q1 CY2026 - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) Releases FY 2026 Earnings Guidance - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart, Target, and Amazon42%10-K Item 1: 'Mattel's three largest customers (Walmart at $1.08 billion, Target at $0.63 billion, and Amazon at $0.52 billion) accounted for approximately 42% of worldwide consolidated net sales'
- MEDIUMCustomertop-10 customers49%10-K Item 1A: 'its ten largest customers, in the aggregate, accounted for approximately 49% of worldwide consolidated net sales'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-07Item 5.02MEDIUMSteve Totzke to depart as President and Chief Commercial Officer effective May 1, 2026; Sanjay Luthra named CCO, reporting to CEO Ynon Kreiz. Totzke will serve as non-executive Executive Advisor through December 31, 2026.SEC filing →
- 2026-06-02Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved amendment to the 2010 Equity and Long-Term Compensation Plan at May 28, 2026 annual meeting, adding 2,155,000 shares and extending plan termination to March 19, 2036. No officer departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.39 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $12.77. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $16.26 (+21.9% upside). Prior stop was $12.77. Stop-loss: $12.77.
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth.
Mattel, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.6 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover MAT with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $19.
What does Mattel, Inc. do?Mattel designs and markets toys globally under owned brands including Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and UNO,...
Mattel designs and markets toys globally under owned brands including Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and UNO, supplemented by licenses from Disney, Microsoft, and NBCUniversal, generating approximately $5.3 billion in net sales in 2025. The three largest retail customers—Walmart, Target, and Amazon—collectively represent approximately 42% of worldwide net sales, with no binding long-term volume commitments from any customer.