Skip to main content

Mattel, Inc. (MAT) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Leisure

Sell if holding. At $15.00, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart, Target, and Amazon (top-3 customers) (42.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (49.0%).

Mattel designs and markets toys globally across North America and International segments, with a portfolio spanning Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and UNO. Revenue comes from selling toys to major retailers; in 2025 its three largest customers (Walmart, Target, Amazon)... Read more

$15.00+8.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#6 of 12 Leisure
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.18%
Stop $14.06Target $16.28(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$18.71+24.8%14 analysts
$16.28our TP
$15.00price
$18.71mean
$13
$28

Sell if holding. At $15.00, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart, Target, and Amazon (top-3 customers) (42.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (49.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.7Qual5.4Grw3.6Mom5.7Sent6.9Ins5.0Peer6.0Tech4.3Risk6.15.7OVERALL

Recent Developments — Mattel, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 36%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart, Target, and Amazon (top-3 customers) (42.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (49.0%)
Thin upside margin: 8.5%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.6
P/E (Fwd)9.5
Mkt Cap$4.3B
EV/EBITDA8.7
Profit Mgn9.3%
ROE23.6%
Rev Growth4.3%
Beta0.74
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.80neutral
IV42%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerWalmart, Target, and Amazon (top-3 customers)42%
    10-K Item 1: 'Mattel's three largest customers, Walmart, Target, and Amazon, in the aggregate, accounted for approximately 42% of worldwide consolidated net sales'
  • HIGHCustomertop-10 customers49%
    10-K Item 1A: 'its ten largest customers, in the aggregate, accounted for approximately 49% of worldwide consolidated net sales'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-07Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Steve Totzke (President & Chief Commercial Officer) ceasing role effective May 1, 2026; Sanjay Luthra (EVP, EMEA & Global DTC) succeeding as Chief Commercial Officer. Totzke remains as non-executive advisor through December 31, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.6
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.50Resistance $15.56

Price Targets

$14
$16
A.Upside+8.5%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MAT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $15.00, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart, Target, and Amazon (top-3 customers) (42.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (49.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Prior stop was $14.06. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

What is the MAT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.28 (+8.5% upside). Prior stop was $14.06. Stop-loss: $14.06.

What are the risks of investing in MAT?

Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart, Target, and Amazon (top-3 customers) (42.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (49.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.5%.

Is MAT overvalued or undervalued?

Mattel, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.6 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MAT?

21 analysts cover MAT with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Mattel, Inc. do?Mattel designs and markets toys globally across North America and International segments, with a portfolio spanning...

Mattel designs and markets toys globally across North America and International segments, with a portfolio spanning Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and UNO. Revenue comes from selling toys to major retailers; in 2025 its three largest customers (Walmart, Target, Amazon) represented 42% of worldwide net sales.

Related stocks: AS (Amer Sports, Inc.) · YETI (YETI Holdings, Inc.) · PLNT (Planet Fitness, Inc.) · HAS (Hasbro, Inc.) · OSW (OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited)