Mattel, Inc. (MAT) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $14.82: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart, Target, and Amazon top-3 (42.0%).
Mattel designs and markets toys globally (Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price) in North America and International segments. Top-3 customers (Walmart, Target, Amazon) accounted for 42% of 2025 worldwide consolidated net sales; top-10 customers accounted for 49%.
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $14.82: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart, Target, and Amazon top-3 (42.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.80, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerWalmart, Target, and Amazon top-342%10-K Item 1A: 'Mattel has significant customer concentration... Walmart, Target, and Amazon, in the aggregate, accounted for approximately 42% of worldwide consolidated net sales'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-07Item 5.02MEDIUMSteve Totzke ceasing as President and CCO effective May 1, 2026. Sanjay Luthra appointed Chief Commercial Officer as successor. Totzke serves as non-executive advisor through December 31, 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $14.82: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart, Target, and Amazon top-3 (42.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Prior stop was $13.88. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $16.65 (+12.2% upside). Prior stop was $13.88. Stop-loss: $13.88.
Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart, Target, and Amazon top-3 (42.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Mattel, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.0 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover MAT with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $19.
What does Mattel, Inc. do?Mattel designs and markets toys globally (Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price) in North America and International...
Mattel designs and markets toys globally (Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price) in North America and International segments. Top-3 customers (Walmart, Target, Amazon) accounted for 42% of 2025 worldwide consolidated net sales; top-10 customers accounted for 49%.