Life Time operates a fitness membership business delivering three of its last four quarters above consensus with a positive technical backdrop, but free cash flow is deeply negative relative to net income, revenue is heavily concentrated in dues and enrollment fees, and with only 5.1% headroom to the analyst target and a reward-to-risk ratio below 1, the current entry point offers insufficient upside relative to the potential drawdown.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak Delivery↑Improving
- Negative Free Cash Flow Quality→Stable
- Membership Revenue Concentration Risk↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. (LTH) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $42.33 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%).
Life Time operates 189 resort-like athletic country clubs across 31 U.S. states and Canada, serving nearly 1.6 million individual members across approximately 873,000 memberships. Subscription membership dues and enrollment fees represent over 72% of Center revenue, with average... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $42.33 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 3/8 gates (news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Decker Retirement Planning Inc. Makes New Investment in Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. $LTH - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Life Time Group (LTH) Soars 12% on Stellar Earnings, Upbeat Outlook - Insider Monkey — Insider Monkey positive
- NEWS Life Time Group (LTH) to Release Earnings on Tuesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Life Time Announces Share Repurchase of Common Stock - Life Time Healthy Way of Life — Life Time Healthy Way of Life positive
- NEWS Life Time Announces Share Repurchase of Common Stock - PR Newswire — PR Newswire positive
Generated 2026-07-26T11:02:49Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductmembership dues and enrollment fees72%10-K Item 1: 'our membership dues and enrollment fees now representing over 72% of our total Center revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-20Item 5.02LOWDirector Andres Small resigned effective May 20, 2026; replaced by Rachael Wagner appointed as independent Class III director with term expiring at 2027 annual meeting. Board remains at 12 members, 10 independent.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-11Item 5.02LOWDirector Alejandro Santo Domingo gave notice of intention to resign from Board effective March 31, 2026. No successor named. No reason cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $42.33 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $39.97. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $43.08 (-7.1% upside). Prior stop was $39.97. Stop-loss: $39.97.
Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.7% away).
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.5 (forward 21.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover LTH with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $45.
What does Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. do?Life Time operates 189 resort-like athletic country clubs across 31 U.S. states and Canada, serving nearly 1.6 million...
Life Time operates 189 resort-like athletic country clubs across 31 U.S. states and Canada, serving nearly 1.6 million individual members across approximately 873,000 memberships. Subscription membership dues and enrollment fees represent over 72% of Center revenue, with average annual revenue per center membership of $3,531 in 2025. The company employs over 44,000 team members and targets affluent suburban and urban markets.