Life Time operates a fitness membership business delivering three of its last four quarters above consensus with a positive technical backdrop, but free cash flow is deeply negative relative to net income, revenue is heavily concentrated in dues and enrollment fees, and with only 5.1% headroom to the analyst target and a reward-to-risk ratio below 1, the current entry point offers insufficient upside relative to the potential drawdown.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak Delivery→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Flow Quality→Stable
- Membership Revenue Concentration Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. (LTH) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $40.81 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%).
Life Time operates 189 resort-like athletic country clubs across 31 U.S. states and Canada, serving nearly 1.6 million individual members across approximately 873,000 memberships. Subscription membership dues and enrollment fees represent over 72% of Center revenue, with average... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $40.81 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Decker Retirement Planning Inc. Makes New Investment in Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. $LTH - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Life Time Group (LTH) Soars 12% on Stellar Earnings, Upbeat Outlook - Insider Monkey — Insider Monkey positive
- NEWS Life Time Group (LTH) to Release Earnings on Tuesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Life Time Announces Share Repurchase of Common Stock - Life Time Healthy Way of Life — Life Time Healthy Way of Life positive
- NEWS Life Time Announces Share Repurchase of Common Stock - PR Newswire — PR Newswire positive
Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductmembership dues and enrollment fees72%10-K Item 1: 'our membership dues and enrollment fees now representing over 72% of our total Center revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-20Item 5.02LOWDirector Andres Small resigned effective May 20, 2026; replaced by Rachael Wagner appointed as independent Class III director with term expiring at 2027 annual meeting. Board remains at 12 members, 10 independent.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-11Item 5.02LOWDirector Alejandro Santo Domingo gave notice of intention to resign from Board effective March 31, 2026. No successor named. No reason cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $40.81 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $38.01. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $40.95 (+0.3% upside). Prior stop was $38.01. Stop-loss: $38.01.
Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.3% away).
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.9 (forward 20.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover LTH with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $44.
What does Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. do?Life Time operates 189 resort-like athletic country clubs across 31 U.S. states and Canada, serving nearly 1.6 million...
Life Time operates 189 resort-like athletic country clubs across 31 U.S. states and Canada, serving nearly 1.6 million individual members across approximately 873,000 memberships. Subscription membership dues and enrollment fees represent over 72% of Center revenue, with average annual revenue per center membership of $3,531 in 2025. The company employs over 44,000 team members and targets affluent suburban and urban markets.