Three earnings misses in the last four quarters — including a severe miss in mid-2025 that dragged the average surprise to approximately negative 19% — alongside 72% revenue concentration with a single government customer and only 6.1% headroom to the analyst price target suggest a cautious posture; the stock is below its 200-day moving average but that average is still rising at roughly 2.8% over the past month, indicating a pullback within a longer uptrend that has not yet confirmed a reversal.
Thesis pillars
- Thin Upside Asymmetry Not Cleared→Stable
- Earnings Delivery Deteriorating→Stable
- Government Customer Concentration→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $608.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Lockheed Martin develops, manufactures, and sustains advanced military aircraft, missiles, helicopters, defense systems, and space vehicles across four segments. In 2025, 72% of consolidated sales came from the U.S. Government, with the F-35 Lightning II alone representing 27%... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $608.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 67d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Lockheed Martin Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) Stock Price Up 1.5% - What's Next? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Lockheed Martin vs. General Dynamics: Which Stock is the Better Buy? - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Lockheed Martin vs. General Dynamics: Which Stock is the Better Buy? - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS Earnings To Watch: Lockheed Martin (LMT) Reports Q2 Results Tomorrow - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Lockheed Martin Corp Stock (LMT) Moved Down by 3.17% on Apr 22: Drivers Behind the Movement - TradingKey — TradingKey negative
Generated 2026-08-15T09:37:16Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. Government72%10-K Item 1A: 'We derived 72% of our total consolidated sales from the U.S. Government in 2025, including 63% from the Department of War (DoW)'
- MEDIUMProductF-35 program27%10-K Item 1A: 'The F-35 program...is our largest program and represented 27% of our total consolidated sales in 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $608.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $699.98 (+15.0%), stop $579.28 (−5.1%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $699.98 (-6.8% upside). Target $699.98 (+15.0%), stop $579.28 (−5.1%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $579.28.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.
Lockheed Martin Corporation trades at a P/E of 22.4 (forward 18.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Hold.
28 analysts cover LMT with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $630.
What does Lockheed Martin Corporation do?Lockheed Martin develops, manufactures, and sustains advanced military aircraft, missiles, helicopters, defense...
Lockheed Martin develops, manufactures, and sustains advanced military aircraft, missiles, helicopters, defense systems, and space vehicles across four segments. In 2025, 72% of consolidated sales came from the U.S. Government, with the F-35 Lightning II alone representing 27% of total sales. The company employed approximately 123,000 people at year-end 2025, with 93% located in the United States.