Embraer shows a compelling combination of high growth scores and an attractive valuation — PEG of 0.13, a forward P/E of 16.0 times, and 18.2% upside to the consensus target — but quarterly earnings delivery has alternated between beats and misses with a negative average surprise of roughly -14% over four quarters, free cash flow is negative, and business quality sits below the minimum threshold, making this a setup that warrants monitoring before committing fresh capital.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Negative Quality Below Floor→Stable
- Strong Revenue Earnings Growth Profile→Stable
- Attractive Valuation Analyst Upside↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026· older than 90 days
Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. At $78.52, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Near 52-week high (2.8% away).
Embraer S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and systems worldwide. The company operates through Commercial Aviation; Defense & Security; Executive Aviation; Services & Support; and Other segments. The... Read more
Sell if holding. At $78.52, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Near 52-week high (2.8% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — Embraer S.A.
Latest news
- NEWS IndiGo in Negotiations with Embraer for Potential Order of Up to 150 Jets — fiscal.ai Nov 4, 2026 positive
- NEWS Fokker Services Group Nominated as Embraer Authorized Service Center for Royal Netherlands Air Force C-390 Fleet — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS SES to Equip 18 Embraer E195-E2 Aircraft with Multi-Orbit In-Flight Connectivity — fiscal.ai Nov 2, 2026 positive
- NEWS Greek Government to Sign Agreement for Embraer KC-390 Aircraft — fiscal.ai Nov 2, 2026 positive
- NEWS Embraer Announces 4-for-1 Forward Split of American Depositary Shares — fiscal.ai Oct 30, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:07Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $78.52, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Near 52-week high (2.8% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $73.02. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $85.32 (+8.7% upside). Prior stop was $73.02. Stop-loss: $73.02.
Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Near 52-week high (2.8% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).
Embraer S.A. trades at a P/E of 31.8 (forward 19.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts rate EMBJ, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 15 analysts publish price targets averaging $95.
What does Embraer S.A. do?Embraer S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and...
Embraer S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and systems worldwide. The company operates through Commercial Aviation; Defense & Security; Executive Aviation; Services & Support; and Other segments. The Commercial Aviation segment develops, produces, and sells commercial jets. The Defense & Security segment develops and produces military aircraft; and is involved in research and development of software and integrated information systems, communications, border monitoring and surveillance, space systems/satellites, and aircraft modernization services and services support, as well as command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems. The Executive Aviation segment develops, produces, and sells executive jets. The Service & Support segment provides field and technical support, flight operations solutions, aircraft modification, materials management, maintenance solutions, and training programs. The Other segment engages in the supply of structural parts and hydraulic systems; production of agricultural crop-spraying aircraft; development and certification of eVTOLs; creation of a maintenance and service network, and air traffic control system for eVTOLs; development and manufacture of electrical propulsion systems; cybersecurity; and software and technical products. Additionally, the company is involved in leasing of used aircraft; pilot, mechanic, and crew training; engineering services; retail trade, maintenance, and repair of computer products; information technology consulting, data processing, application service providers, and internet hosting; and fabrication of aircraft interiors. The company was formerly known as Embraer-Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica S.A. and changed its name to Embraer S.A. in November 2010. Embraer S.A. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.