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EMBJEmbraer S.A.Sell6.0·$67.24+4.88%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Embraer shows a compelling combination of high growth scores and an attractive valuation — PEG of 0.13, a forward P/E of 16.0 times, and 18.2% upside to the consensus target — but quarterly earnings delivery has alternated between beats and misses with a negative average surprise of roughly -14% over four quarters, free cash flow is negative, and business quality sits below the minimum threshold, making this a setup that warrants monitoring before committing fresh capital.

Thesis pillars

  • Fcf Negative Quality Below FloorStable
  • Strong Revenue Earnings Growth ProfileStable
  • Attractive Valuation Analyst UpsideStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $67.24: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Embraer S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and systems worldwide. The company operates through Commercial Aviation; Defense & Security; Executive Aviation; Services & Support; and Other segments. The... Read more

$67.24+8.1% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#6 of 64 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-1.97%
IncomeYield1.22%(5y avg 2.68%)Payout35.37%sustainable
Stop $62.58Target $72.72(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$80.80+20.2%15 analysts
$72.72our TP
$67.24price
$80.80mean
$97

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $67.24: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 10, 202635d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)37.5
P/E (Fwd)16.6
Mkt Cap$11.4B
EV/EBITDA4.1
Profit Mgn3.9%
ROE8.8%
Rev Growth18.4%
Beta0.72
Dividend1.22%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.59bullish
IV56%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.2
Gap
5.0
52w Position
6.7

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Net Margin
2.0
Roa
2.2
Operating Margin
2.3
Roe
2.9
Current Ratio
5.4
Moat
5.6
Piotroski F
7.8
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -13% FCF/NIStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 122.0%
GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 35d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
76 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $53.43Resistance $67.56

Price Targets

$63
$73
A.Upside+8.1%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (35d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EMBJ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $67.24: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $62.58. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EMBJ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $72.72 (+8.1% upside). Prior stop was $62.58. Stop-loss: $62.58.

What are the risks of investing in EMBJ?

Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is EMBJ overvalued or undervalued?

Embraer S.A. trades at a P/E of 37.5 (forward 16.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EMBJ?

13 analysts cover EMBJ with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $81.

What does Embraer S.A. do?Embraer S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and...

Embraer S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and systems worldwide. The company operates through Commercial Aviation; Defense & Security; Executive Aviation; Services & Support; and Other segments. The Commercial Aviation segment develops, produces, and sells commercial jets. The Defense & Security segment develops and produces military aircraft; and is involved in research and development of software and integrated information systems, communications, border monitoring and surveillance, space systems/satellites, and aircraft modernization services and services support, as well as command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems. The Executive Aviation segment develops, produces, and sells executive jets. The Service & Support segment provides field and technical support, flight operations solutions, aircraft modification, materials management, maintenance solutions, and training programs. The Other segment engages in the supply of structural parts and hydraulic systems; production of agricultural crop-spraying aircraft; development and certification of eVTOLs; creation of a maintenance and service network, and air traffic control system for eVTOLs; development and manufacture of electrical propulsion systems; cybersecurity; and software and technical products. Additionally, the company is involved in leasing of used aircraft; pilot, mechanic, and crew training; engineering services; retail trade, maintenance, and repair of computer products; information technology consulting, data processing, application service providers, and internet hosting; and fabrication of aircraft interiors. The company was formerly known as Embraer-Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica S.A. and changed its name to Embraer S.A. in November 2010. Embraer S.A. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

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