Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.1 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 6.7 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.08
LMT · Why this verdict
Why Lockheed Martin (LMT) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score4.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Three earnings misses in the last four quarters — including a severe miss in mid-2025 that dragged the average surprise to approximately negative 19% — alongside 72% revenue concentration with a single government customer and only 6.1% headroom to the analyst price target suggest a cautious posture; the stock is below its 200-day moving average but that average is still rising at roughly 2.8% over the past month, indicating a pullback within a longer uptrend that has not yet confirmed a reversal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With approximately 6.1% headroom remaining to the analyst consensus price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of about 1.4-to-1, the current setup does not clear the minimum asymmetry threshold, leaving little margin for error at the current entry level. Price targets | A share price correction of 10% or more would create at least 17% upside to the $562 consensus target and improve the risk/reward to a level that justifies re-engagement. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterA reward-to-risk ratio above 1.0 is technically favorable in absolute terms; with positive news sentiment scoring above 0.6 and low short interest, a patient hold at the current level can still generate a positive return even without a price correction. | ||
Three of the last four reported quarters have missed earnings estimates, with the average surprise running at approximately negative 19%; the two most recent quarters each missed, following a solid beat, and an outlier miss of nearly 77% in mid-2025 distorted the full-year average, together signaling uneven execution and raising questions about near-term guidance reliability. Earnings | At least two consecutive positive EPS surprises of 3% or more over the next four quarters signal a return to reliable delivery. | →Stable |
| CounterThe severe miss in mid-2025 appears to be an outlier that disproportionately weighted the average; if the two most recent small misses of roughly 3% and 4% reflect tightened guidance discipline rather than fundamental deterioration, the delivery pattern may normalize without a structural problem. | ||
A single government customer accounts for 72% of revenue, a concentration level flagged at HIGH severity in the company's filings; this reliance concentrates funding dependency in one relationship and limits revenue diversification. Bear case | Revenue from non-government customers grows to represent more than 35% of total revenue over the next 12 months, beginning to dilute the concentration. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe concentration is already sized and factored into risk guidance as a HIGH-severity item; if no contract reductions materialize over the next four reporting periods, the concern remains latent rather than active, and the risk premium the market applies for it may diminish. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with volume distribution (falling on-balance volume) pointing to near-term selling pressure; however, the 200-day moving average itself continues to rise at approximately 2.8% over the past 30 days, and the data characterizes this as a pullback within a longer uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 90 days and on-balance volume returns to accumulation, confirming the pullback was temporary. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterContinued distribution alongside a sub-200-day moving average close can precede deeper corrections; if the moving average begins to flatten or decline over the next several weeks, what is currently a pullback in an uptrend may transition into a confirmed downtrend. | ||
With approximately 6.1% headroom remaining to the analyst consensus price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of about 1.4-to-1, the current setup does not clear the minimum asymmetry threshold, leaving little margin for error at the current entry level.
Tripped→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A share price correction of 10% or more would create at least 17% upside to the $562 consensus target and improve the risk/reward to a level that justifies re-engagement.
CounterA reward-to-risk ratio above 1.0 is technically favorable in absolute terms; with positive news sentiment scoring above 0.6 and low short interest, a patient hold at the current level can still generate a positive return even without a price correction.
Three of the last four reported quarters have missed earnings estimates, with the average surprise running at approximately negative 19%; the two most recent quarters each missed, following a solid beat, and an outlier miss of nearly 77% in mid-2025 distorted the full-year average, together signaling uneven execution and raising questions about near-term guidance reliability.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- At least two consecutive positive EPS surprises of 3% or more over the next four quarters signal a return to reliable delivery.
CounterThe severe miss in mid-2025 appears to be an outlier that disproportionately weighted the average; if the two most recent small misses of roughly 3% and 4% reflect tightened guidance discipline rather than fundamental deterioration, the delivery pattern may normalize without a structural problem.
A single government customer accounts for 72% of revenue, a concentration level flagged at HIGH severity in the company's filings; this reliance concentrates funding dependency in one relationship and limits revenue diversification.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue from non-government customers grows to represent more than 35% of total revenue over the next 12 months, beginning to dilute the concentration.
CounterThe concentration is already sized and factored into risk guidance as a HIGH-severity item; if no contract reductions materialize over the next four reporting periods, the concern remains latent rather than active, and the risk premium the market applies for it may diminish.
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with volume distribution (falling on-balance volume) pointing to near-term selling pressure; however, the 200-day moving average itself continues to rise at approximately 2.8% over the past 30 days, and the data characterizes this as a pullback within a longer uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 90 days and on-balance volume returns to accumulation, confirming the pullback was temporary.
CounterContinued distribution alongside a sub-200-day moving average close can precede deeper corrections; if the moving average begins to flatten or decline over the next several weeks, what is currently a pullback in an uptrend may transition into a confirmed downtrend.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 4.4 |
| Net margin | 3.2 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 68%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.6 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 0.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 6.6 |
| 52w position | 4.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 6.3 |
| put call | 1.0 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 2.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.85
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.49
Upside
+7.5%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Insider at 6.3 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 6.3, Value at 6.2, and Sentiment at 6.0; the weakest are Growth at 1.3, Momentum at 2.0, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.49 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Delivery Deteriorating
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 3% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a return to reliable delivery and falsifying the deteriorating-execution thesis.
- P2Government Customer Concentration
Trip ifGovernment customer revenue concentration falls below 50% of total revenue for 2 consecutive reporting periods, indicating meaningful diversification.
- P3Thin Upside Asymmetry Not ClearedTripped
Trip ifShare price falls to $480 or below, expanding upside to the $562 price target above 17% and improving the reward-to-risk profile to above 2.0-to-1.
- P4Momentum Pullback Not Yet Confirmed
Trip ifThe 200-day moving-average slope falls below 0% for 4 consecutive weeks, confirming the pullback has become a structural downtrend rather than a temporary correction.