Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.8 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 6.4 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.15
LMT · Why this verdict
Why Lockheed Martin (LMT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With approximately 6.1% headroom remaining to the analyst consensus price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of about 1.4-to-1, the current setup does not clear the minimum asymmetry threshold, leaving little margin for error at the current entry level. Price targets | A share price correction of 10% or more would create at least 17% upside to the $562 consensus target and improve the risk/reward to a level that justifies re-engagement. | →Stable |
| CounterA reward-to-risk ratio above 1.0 is technically favorable in absolute terms; with positive news sentiment scoring above 0.6 and low short interest, a patient hold at the current level can still generate a positive return even without a price correction. | ||
Three of the last four reported quarters have missed earnings estimates, with the average surprise running at approximately negative 19%; the two most recent quarters each missed, following a solid beat, and an outlier miss of nearly 77% in mid-2025 distorted the full-year average, together signaling uneven execution and raising questions about near-term guidance reliability. Earnings | At least two consecutive positive EPS surprises of 3% or more over the next four quarters signal a return to reliable delivery. | →Stable |
| CounterThe severe miss in mid-2025 appears to be an outlier that disproportionately weighted the average; if the two most recent small misses of roughly 3% and 4% reflect tightened guidance discipline rather than fundamental deterioration, the delivery pattern may normalize without a structural problem. | ||
A single government customer accounts for 72% of revenue, a concentration level flagged at HIGH severity in the company's filings; this reliance concentrates funding dependency in one relationship and limits revenue diversification. Bear case | Revenue from non-government customers grows to represent more than 35% of total revenue over the next 12 months, beginning to dilute the concentration. | →Stable |
| CounterThe concentration is already sized and factored into risk guidance as a HIGH-severity item; if no contract reductions materialize over the next four reporting periods, the concern remains latent rather than active, and the risk premium the market applies for it may diminish. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with volume distribution (falling on-balance volume) pointing to near-term selling pressure; however, the 200-day moving average itself continues to rise at approximately 2.8% over the past 30 days, and the data characterizes this as a pullback within a longer uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 90 days and on-balance volume returns to accumulation, confirming the pullback was temporary. | →Stable |
| CounterContinued distribution alongside a sub-200-day moving average close can precede deeper corrections; if the moving average begins to flatten or decline over the next several weeks, what is currently a pullback in an uptrend may transition into a confirmed downtrend. | ||
With approximately 6.1% headroom remaining to the analyst consensus price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of about 1.4-to-1, the current setup does not clear the minimum asymmetry threshold, leaving little margin for error at the current entry level.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A share price correction of 10% or more would create at least 17% upside to the $562 consensus target and improve the risk/reward to a level that justifies re-engagement.
CounterA reward-to-risk ratio above 1.0 is technically favorable in absolute terms; with positive news sentiment scoring above 0.6 and low short interest, a patient hold at the current level can still generate a positive return even without a price correction.
Three of the last four reported quarters have missed earnings estimates, with the average surprise running at approximately negative 19%; the two most recent quarters each missed, following a solid beat, and an outlier miss of nearly 77% in mid-2025 distorted the full-year average, together signaling uneven execution and raising questions about near-term guidance reliability.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- At least two consecutive positive EPS surprises of 3% or more over the next four quarters signal a return to reliable delivery.
CounterThe severe miss in mid-2025 appears to be an outlier that disproportionately weighted the average; if the two most recent small misses of roughly 3% and 4% reflect tightened guidance discipline rather than fundamental deterioration, the delivery pattern may normalize without a structural problem.
A single government customer accounts for 72% of revenue, a concentration level flagged at HIGH severity in the company's filings; this reliance concentrates funding dependency in one relationship and limits revenue diversification.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue from non-government customers grows to represent more than 35% of total revenue over the next 12 months, beginning to dilute the concentration.
CounterThe concentration is already sized and factored into risk guidance as a HIGH-severity item; if no contract reductions materialize over the next four reporting periods, the concern remains latent rather than active, and the risk premium the market applies for it may diminish.
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with volume distribution (falling on-balance volume) pointing to near-term selling pressure; however, the 200-day moving average itself continues to rise at approximately 2.8% over the past 30 days, and the data characterizes this as a pullback within a longer uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 90 days and on-balance volume returns to accumulation, confirming the pullback was temporary.
CounterContinued distribution alongside a sub-200-day moving average close can precede deeper corrections; if the moving average begins to flatten or decline over the next several weeks, what is currently a pullback in an uptrend may transition into a confirmed downtrend.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Three earnings misses in the last four quarters — including a severe miss in mid-2025 that dragged the average surprise to approximately negative 19% — alongside 72% revenue concentration with a single government customer and only 6.1% headroom to the analyst price target suggest a cautious posture; the stock is below its 200-day moving average but that average is still rising at roughly 2.8% over the past month, indicating a pullback within a longer uptrend that has not yet confirmed a reversal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 4.4 |
| Net margin | 3.2 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 68%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.6 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 0.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.1 |
| support resistance | 0.8 |
| 52w position | 5.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 5.5 |
| put call | 9.7 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 2.2 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:19d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.17
Upside
+1.7%
Downside
10.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.17 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1, and Value at 5.8; the weakest are Growth at 1.3, Technical at 3.2, and Catalyst at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.17 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Delivery Deteriorating
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 3% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a return to reliable delivery and falsifying the deteriorating-execution thesis.
- P2Government Customer Concentration
Trip ifGovernment customer revenue concentration falls below 50% of total revenue for 2 consecutive reporting periods, indicating meaningful diversification.
- P3Thin Upside Asymmetry Not Cleared
Trip ifShare price falls to $480 or below, expanding upside to the $562 price target above 17% and improving the reward-to-risk profile to above 2.0-to-1.
- P4Momentum Pullback Not Yet Confirmed
Trip ifThe 200-day moving-average slope falls below 0% for 4 consecutive weeks, confirming the pullback has become a structural downtrend rather than a temporary correction.