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RKLBRocket Lab CorporationSell5.3·$104.61-4.24%
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Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $104.61: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.52; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Rocket Lab provides launch services via the Electron rocket and space systems including spacecraft components and on-orbit management, serving government and commercial customers from sites in New Zealand and Virginia. Revenue was $601.8 million in 2025, with the U.S. government... Read more

$104.61+41.4% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#36 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-0.31%
Stop $97.31Target $147.98(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$107.03+2.3%17 analysts
$147.98our TP
$104.61price
$107.03mean
$60
$150

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $104.61: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.52; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17

Recent Developments — Rocket Lab Corporation

Generated 2026-06-17T09:07:23Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor composites and inertial measurement units
Target reached (-7.9% upside)
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-15027.5
Mkt Cap$68.3B
EV/EBITDA-376.0
Profit Mgn-26.9%
ROE-13.5%
Rev Growth63.5%
Beta2.50
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.52bearish
IV105%elevated
Max Pain$215+105.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop five customers49%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top five customers accounted for approximately 49% of our revenues'
  • MEDIUMCustomerU.S. government47%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 47%...of our total annual revenues were derived from contracts with the U.S. government, U.S. prime contractors and its agencies'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle vendor composites and inertial measurement units
    10-K Item 1A: 'contracted with a single vendor or a limited number of vendors to provide certain key products or services, such as composites, inertial measurement units'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-05Item 5.02LOW
    Rocket Lab appointed Agostino Ricupati (age 59) as VP, Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer effective June 3, 2026. Previously CAO at Cooper Companies July 2017–May 2026. No departure disclosed; routine officer appointment.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-30Item 5.02LOW
    CEO Sir Peter Beck voluntarily reduced annual base salary to $1.00 and cancelled all 392,155 unvested RSUs effective March 30, 2026. No disagreement cited; described as reflecting focus on long-term shareholder value.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -26.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
3.3
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
8.5
Cash-burning: FCF -32% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.3
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
8.2
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 27)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
27 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $99.61Resistance $151.00

Price Targets

$97
$148
A.Upside+41.5%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RKLB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $104.61: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.52; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $97.31. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RKLB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $147.98 (+41.4% upside). Prior stop was $97.31. Stop-loss: $97.31.

What are the risks of investing in RKLB?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor composites and inertial measurement units; Target reached (-7.9% upside); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is RKLB overvalued or undervalued?

Rocket Lab Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -15027.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RKLB?

27 analysts cover RKLB with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $107.

What does Rocket Lab Corporation do?Rocket Lab provides launch services via the Electron rocket and space systems including spacecraft components and...

Rocket Lab provides launch services via the Electron rocket and space systems including spacecraft components and on-orbit management, serving government and commercial customers from sites in New Zealand and Virginia. Revenue was $601.8 million in 2025, with the U.S. government accounting for approximately 47% and top-5 customers representing 49% of revenues. The company is developing the medium-lift Neutron launch vehicle targeting constellation deployments and potentially human spaceflight.

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