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FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5High Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $237.51 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.1): -1.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

FTAI Aviation Ltd. (Nasdaq: FTAI) is a Cayman Islands exempted company. Except as otherwise specified, "we", "us", "our", "FTAI", "FTAI Aviation" or "the Company" refer to us and our consolidated subsidiaries.

$237.51+28.8% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#4 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-1.40%
IncomeYield0.67%(5y avg 3.24%)Payout26.89%sustainable
Stop $220.24Target $305.02(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$350.60+47.6%10 analysts
$305.02our TP
$237.51price
$350.60mean
$408

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $237.51 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.1): -1.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — FTAI Aviation Ltd.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 29%
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 8.1): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)44.4
P/E (Fwd)19.4
Mkt Cap$22.9B
EV/EBITDA25.5
Profit Mgn18.9%
ROE233.3%
Rev Growth65.5%
Beta1.55
Dividend0.67%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.37bearish
IV75%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On March 5, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of FTAI Aviation Ltd. ("FTAI" or the "Company") appointed Nicholas McAleese as the Company's Chief Financial Officer and Michael Hazan as the Company's Chief Accounting Officer, each effective March 6, 2026. Mr.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    The Board of Directors (the "Board") of FTAI Aviation Ltd. ("FTAI" or the "Company") appointed David Moreno as the Company's President and Stacy Kuperus as the Company's principal operating officer, effective February 12, 2026. Each of Mr. Moreno and Ms.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $202.49Resistance $288.21

Price Targets

$220
$305
A.Upside+28.4%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FTAI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $237.51 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.1): -1.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $220.24. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.

What is the FTAI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $305.02 (+28.8% upside). Prior stop was $220.24. Stop-loss: $220.24.

What are the risks of investing in FTAI?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 8.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is FTAI overvalued or undervalued?

FTAI Aviation Ltd. trades at a P/E of 44.4 (forward 19.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FTAI?

17 analysts cover FTAI with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $351.

What does FTAI Aviation Ltd. do?FTAI Aviation Ltd. (Nasdaq: FTAI) is a Cayman Islands exempted company. Except as otherwise specified, "we", "us",...

FTAI Aviation Ltd. (Nasdaq: FTAI) is a Cayman Islands exempted company. Except as otherwise specified, "we", "us", "our", "FTAI", "FTAI Aviation" or "the Company" refer to us and our consolidated subsidiaries.

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