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FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services

Sell if holding. At $247.81, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 10.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

FTAI Aviation Ltd. (Nasdaq: FTAI) is a Cayman Islands exempted company. Except as otherwise specified, "we", "us", "our", "FTAI", "FTAI Aviation" or "the Company" refer to us and our consolidated subsidiaries.

$247.81+18.4% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#2 of 17 Rental & Leasing Services
Stop $231.66Target $294.84(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$338.90+36.8%10 analysts
$294.84our TP
$247.81price
$338.90mean
$375

Sell if holding. At $247.81, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 10.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.90)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 10.5): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)42.5
P/E (Fwd)17.2
Mkt Cap$21.9B
EV/EBITDA25.0
Profit Mgn20.0%
ROE241.2%
Rev Growth32.7%
Beta1.65
Dividend0.63%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.39bullish
IV85%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On March 5, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of FTAI Aviation Ltd. ("FTAI" or the "Company") appointed Nicholas McAleese as the Company's Chief Financial Officer and Michael Hazan as the Company's Chief Accounting Officer, each effective March 6, 2026. Mr.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    The Board of Directors (the "Board") of FTAI Aviation Ltd. ("FTAI" or the "Company") appointed David Moreno as the Company's President and Stacy Kuperus as the Company's principal operating officer, effective February 12, 2026. Each of Mr. Moreno and Ms.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-28Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Adoption of the FTAI Aviation Strategic Capital Profit Participation Plan On January 22, 2026, FTAI Aviation Ltd.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
4.7
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
7.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $202.84Resistance $278.00

Price Targets

$232
$295
A.Upside+19.0%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FTAI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $247.81, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 10.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $231.66. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FTAI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $294.84 (+18.4% upside). Prior stop was $231.66. Stop-loss: $231.66.

What are the risks of investing in FTAI?

Leverage penalty (D/E 10.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Negative momentum.

Is FTAI overvalued or undervalued?

FTAI Aviation Ltd. trades at a P/E of 42.5 (forward 17.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FTAI?

17 analysts cover FTAI with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $339.

What does FTAI Aviation Ltd. do?FTAI Aviation Ltd. (Nasdaq: FTAI) is a Cayman Islands exempted company. Except as otherwise specified, "we", "us",...

FTAI Aviation Ltd. (Nasdaq: FTAI) is a Cayman Islands exempted company. Except as otherwise specified, "we", "us", "our", "FTAI", "FTAI Aviation" or "the Company" refer to us and our consolidated subsidiaries.

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