Three earnings misses in the last four quarters — including a severe miss in mid-2025 that dragged the average surprise to approximately negative 19% — alongside 72% revenue concentration with a single government customer and only 6.1% headroom to the analyst price target suggest a cautious posture; the stock is below its 200-day moving average but that average is still rising at roughly 2.8% over the past month, indicating a pullback within a longer uptrend that has not yet confirmed a reversal.
Thesis pillars
- Thin Upside Asymmetry Not Cleared→Stable
- Earnings Delivery Deteriorating→Stable
- Government Customer Concentration→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. At $538.00, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.2%; Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%).
Lockheed Martin develops, manufactures, and sustains advanced military aircraft, missiles, helicopters, defense systems, and space vehicles across four segments. In 2025, 72% of consolidated sales came from the U.S. Government, with the F-35 Lightning II alone representing 27%... Read more
Sell if holding. At $538.00, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.2%; Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 17d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — Lockheed Martin Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Lockheed Martin Corp Stock (LMT) Moved Down by 3.17% on Apr 22: Drivers Behind the Movement - TradingKey — TradingKey negative
- NEWS Forget Lockheed Martin. This Defense Stock Will Double by 2028. - 24/7 Wall St. — 24/7 Wall St. negative
- NEWS Down 6.3% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why Lockheed (LMT) Looks Ripe for a Turnaround - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Bernstein raises Lockheed Martin stock price target on missile growth - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS Earnings To Watch: Lockheed Martin (LMT) Reports Q1 Results Tomorrow - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-07-07T10:21:37Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. Government72%10-K Item 1A: 'We derived 72% of our total consolidated sales from the U.S. Government in 2025, including 63% from the Department of War (DoW)'
- MEDIUMProductF-35 program27%10-K Item 1A: 'The F-35 program...is our largest program and represented 27% of our total consolidated sales in 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $538.00, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.2%; Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $507.46. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $555.35 (+3.2% upside). Prior stop was $507.46. Stop-loss: $507.46.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5.
Lockheed Martin Corporation trades at a P/E of 26.4 (forward 17.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts cover LMT with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $617.
What does Lockheed Martin Corporation do?Lockheed Martin develops, manufactures, and sustains advanced military aircraft, missiles, helicopters, defense...
Lockheed Martin develops, manufactures, and sustains advanced military aircraft, missiles, helicopters, defense systems, and space vehicles across four segments. In 2025, 72% of consolidated sales came from the U.S. Government, with the F-35 Lightning II alone representing 27% of total sales. The company employed approximately 123,000 people at year-end 2025, with 93% located in the United States.