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Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. At $529.40, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Concentration risk — Product: F-35 program (27.0%).

Lockheed Martin is a global aerospace and defense company with four segments—Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space—serving U.S. and international government customers. In fiscal 2025, 72% of consolidated sales came from the U.S. Government... Read more

$529.40+7.3% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#44 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield3.27%
IncomeYield2.61%(5y avg 2.63%)Payout65.38%
Stop $505.87Target $567.04(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$630.05+19.0%20 analysts
$567.04our TP
$529.40price
$630.05mean
$756

Sell if holding. At $529.40, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Concentration risk — Product: F-35 program (27.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Lockheed Martin Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%)
Concentration risk — Product: F-35 program (27.0%)
Thin upside margin: 7.3%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.6
P/E (Fwd)16.5
Mkt Cap$121.8B
EV/EBITDA17.6
Profit Mgn6.4%
ROE67.6%
Rev Growth0.3%
Beta0.10
Dividend2.61%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.78neutral
IV45%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. Government72%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derived 72% of our total consolidated sales from the U.S. Government in 2025, including 63% from the Department of War (DoW)'
  • HIGHProductF-35 program27%
    10-K Item 1: 'The F-35 program is our largest program, generating 27% of our total consolidated sales, as well as 67% of Aeronautics' sales in 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.6

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
7.3
Value Rank
8.3
Attractive P/E vs peersSuperior ROE vs peers
GatesA.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $500.31Resistance $580.98

Price Targets

$506
$567
A.Upside+7.1%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LMT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $529.40, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Concentration risk — Product: F-35 program (27.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $505.87. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

What is the LMT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $567.04 (+7.3% upside). Prior stop was $505.87. Stop-loss: $505.87.

What are the risks of investing in LMT?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Concentration risk — Product: F-35 program (27.0%); Thin upside margin: 7.3%.

Is LMT overvalued or undervalued?

Lockheed Martin Corporation trades at a P/E of 25.6 (forward 16.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LMT?

29 analysts cover LMT with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $630.

What does Lockheed Martin Corporation do?Lockheed Martin is a global aerospace and defense company with four segments—Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control,...

Lockheed Martin is a global aerospace and defense company with four segments—Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space—serving U.S. and international government customers. In fiscal 2025, 72% of consolidated sales came from the U.S. Government (63% from the Department of War); the F-35 program alone represented 27% of total sales.

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