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Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $510.31 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (DoW) (63.0%).

Lockheed Martin is a global aerospace and defense technology company with four segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space. Principal customers are U.S. Government agencies and allies; 72% of 2025 total consolidated sales came from the... Read more

$510.31+13.0% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#42 of 46 Aerospace & Defense
Stop $486.88Target $577.22(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$641.35+25.7%20 analysts
$577.22our TP
$510.31price
$641.35mean
$756

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $510.31 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (DoW) (63.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (DoW) (63.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.7
P/E (Fwd)15.9
Mkt Cap$117.5B
EV/EBITDA17.1
Profit Mgn6.4%
ROE67.6%
Rev Growth0.3%
Beta0.24
Dividend2.65%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.92neutral
IV45%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. Government72%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derived 72% of our total consolidated sales from the U.S. Government in 2025'
  • HIGHCustomerDepartment of War (DoW)63%
    10-K Item 1A: 'including 63% from the Department of War (DoW), also known as the Department of Defense under 10 U.S.C. § 111(a)'
  • MEDIUMProductF-35 program27%
    10-K Item 1A: 'The F-35 program...is our largest program and represented 27% of our total consolidated sales in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 6, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.6
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
6 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $501.94Resistance $637.92

Price Targets

$487
$577
A.Upside+13.1%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LMT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $510.31 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (DoW) (63.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $486.88. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

What is the LMT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $577.22 (+13.0% upside). Prior stop was $486.88. Stop-loss: $486.88.

What are the risks of investing in LMT?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (DoW) (63.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5.

Is LMT overvalued or undervalued?

Lockheed Martin Corporation trades at a P/E of 24.7 (forward 15.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LMT?

29 analysts cover LMT with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $641.

What does Lockheed Martin Corporation do?Lockheed Martin is a global aerospace and defense technology company with four segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire...

Lockheed Martin is a global aerospace and defense technology company with four segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space. Principal customers are U.S. Government agencies and allies; 72% of 2025 total consolidated sales came from the U.S. Government, including 63% from the Department of Defense.

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