Three earnings misses in the last four quarters — including a severe miss in mid-2025 that dragged the average surprise to approximately negative 19% — alongside 72% revenue concentration with a single government customer and only 6.1% headroom to the analyst price target suggest a cautious posture; the stock is below its 200-day moving average but that average is still rising at roughly 2.8% over the past month, indicating a pullback within a longer uptrend that has not yet confirmed a reversal.
Thesis pillars
- Thin Upside Asymmetry Not Cleared↑Improving
- Earnings Delivery Deteriorating→Stable
- Government Customer Concentration↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jan 29, 2026· older than 90 days
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $595.04, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Lockheed Martin develops, manufactures, and sustains advanced military aircraft, missiles, helicopters, defense systems, and space vehicles across four segments. In 2025, 72% of consolidated sales came from the U.S. Government, with the F-35 Lightning II alone representing 27%... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $595.04, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.8/10, high confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, news boost analyst cluster(5), earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Nov 5, 2026Recent Developments — Lockheed Martin Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Lockheed Martin Awarded $122.4 Million U.S. Navy Contract — fiscal.ai Nov 5, 2026 positive
- NEWS Here’s How Much You Would Have Made Owning Lockheed Martin Stock In The Last 15 Years — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Lockheed Martin Celebrates 57 Graduates from UAE Internship Program — fiscal.ai Nov 4, 2026 positive
- NEWS Lockheed Martin Q3 Preview: Shares Down 20% From Highs, Another Record Backlog Could Change Things - Benzinga — Benzinga Oct 21, 2026 negative
- NEWS Lockheed Martin (LMT): Is the Pullback a Buying Opportunity? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 21, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 5, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:44:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. Government72%10-K Item 1A: 'We derived 72% of our total consolidated sales from the U.S. Government in 2025, including 63% from the Department of War (DoW)'
- MEDIUMProductF-35 program27%10-K Item 1A: 'The F-35 program...is our largest program and represented 27% of our total consolidated sales in 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $595.04, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Analyst target $587.31 reached (−1.3%), stop $553.39 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $587.31 reached (−1.3% from $595.04); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $587.31 reached (−1.3%), stop $553.39 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $553.39.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Government (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).
Lockheed Martin Corporation trades at a P/E of 21.1 (forward 17.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Hold.
30 analysts rate LMT, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 21 analysts publish price targets averaging $653.
What does Lockheed Martin Corporation do?Lockheed Martin develops, manufactures, and sustains advanced military aircraft, missiles, helicopters, defense...
Lockheed Martin develops, manufactures, and sustains advanced military aircraft, missiles, helicopters, defense systems, and space vehicles across four segments. In 2025, 72% of consolidated sales came from the U.S. Government, with the F-35 Lightning II alone representing 27% of total sales. The company employed approximately 123,000 people at year-end 2025, with 93% located in the United States.