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LADRLadder Capital CorpSell5.3·$10.01+0.30%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Ladder Capital is in a hold-no-new-entry phase: a death cross hard block and momentum failure eliminate new entry, and just 6% upside to the analyst target leaves a thin margin for reward; the business shows genuine underlying strength in its Piotroski score and margins, but the technical backdrop and negative price momentum need to resolve before this becomes actionable.

Thesis pillars

  • Momentum Death Cross Hard BlockStable
  • Strong Piotroski And MarginsStable
  • Thin Upside Margin To TargetStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Ladder Capital Corp (LADR) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. At $10.01, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Thin upside margin: 7.1%.

Ladder Capital Corp operates as an internally-managed real estate investment trust in the United States. It operates through three segments: Loans, Securities, and Real Estate. The Loans segment originates and acquires balance sheet loans that provide interim financing to... Read more

$10.01+7.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#16 of 24 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield9.19%(5y avg 8.09%)Payout209.09%
Stop $9.65Target $10.72(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$12.32+23.1%7 analysts
$10.72our TP
$10.01price
$12.32mean
$14

Sell if holding. At $10.01, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Thin upside margin: 7.1%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Ladder Capital Corp

About Ladder Capital Corp

Ladder Capital held a $2.2 billion balance sheet of 73 first mortgage loans, a $2.1 billion CMBS securities portfolio across 115 CUSIPs, and $966.2 million of owned real estate -- 149 net-leased properties and 56 diversified properties -- as of December 31, 2025. The company has originated $31.3 billion of commercial real estate loans since its 2008 founding, with 98.6% of its CMBS holdings rated investment grade and collateral concentrated 11.2% by market value in the New York-Newark-Jersey City metro area.

Ladder earns net interest income from balance sheet first mortgage loans -- typically floating-rate, one-to-five-year loans on transitional properties -- and originates fixed-rate conduit loans for sale into CMBS trusts, generally retaining no ongoing interest once sold. The company funds this lending through a diversified mix of $2.2 billion in senior unsecured notes, an $850 million unsecured revolving credit facility (of which $280 million was drawn), and multiple committed loan repurchase facilities totaling $656.0 million, none of which were drawn at year-end 2025. Ladder's 149 single-tenant net-leased properties, spanning 3.4 million square feet with a 6.7-year weighted average remaining lease term, collected 100% of billed rent in 2025, while its 56 diversified commercial properties collected 98%. The company achieved investment-grade credit ratings from Moody's and Fitch in May 2025, automatically releasing subsidiary guarantees under its revolving credit facility.

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Ladder's 10-K flags that it does not observe formal diversification criteria across property types, tenants, geographies or borrowers, meaning any single large borrower or a downturn concentrated in one property type could disproportionately affect results -- a risk realized in the office sector, where the filing notes hybrid work has structurally reduced space demand, particularly for Class B and C buildings in secondary markets. Layered on top, 11.2% of Ladder's CMBS collateral by market value sits in the New York-Newark-Jersey City metro area, the single largest of the top 25 MSAs where 63.9% of that portfolio's collateral is located, concentrating regional economic risk within an otherwise nationally diversified book.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

From Ladder Capital Corp's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202619d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.1%
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA (4d, -0.5%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.8
P/E (Fwd)8.5
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn25.4%
ROE3.7%
Rev Growth1.7%
Beta0.99
Dividend9.19%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.22bullish
IV89%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.1
Quality Rank
2.9
Growth Rank
3.8

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.5
Obv
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
6.5
Ma Position
7.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 19d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.80Resistance $10.21

Price Targets

$10
$11
A.Upside+7.1%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (19d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LADR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $10.01, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Thin upside margin: 7.1%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $9.65. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LADR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.72 (+7.1% upside). Prior stop was $9.65. Stop-loss: $9.65.

What are the risks of investing in LADR?

Thin upside margin: 7.1%; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA (4d, -0.5%).

Is LADR overvalued or undervalued?

Ladder Capital Corp trades at a P/E of 22.8 (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LADR?

13 analysts cover LADR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Ladder Capital Corp do?Ladder Capital Corp operates as an internally-managed real estate investment trust in the United States. It operates...

Ladder Capital Corp operates as an internally-managed real estate investment trust in the United States. It operates through three segments: Loans, Securities, and Real Estate. The Loans segment originates and acquires balance sheet loans that provide interim financing to borrowers seeking short-term capital for the acquisition or transition of commercial real estate; originates conduit loans, which are first mortgage loans on commercial real estate properties for sale in commercial mortgage-backed securities securitizations; and invests in note purchase financings, subordinated debt, mezzanine debt, and other structured finance products related to commercial real estate. Its Securities segment invests in CMBS, U.S. Agency securities, corporate bonds, equity securities, and U.S. Treasury securities that are not classified as cash and cash equivalents. The Real Estate segment engages in net leased properties, other diversified real estate, and investments in unconsolidated ventures. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Ladder Capital Corp was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

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