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MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.45, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum.

MFA Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States. It operates through two segments: Mortgage-Related Assets and Lima One. The Mortgage-Related Assets segment primarily invests in and manages a diversified... Read more

$9.45+39.9% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#7 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield15.27%(5y avg 13.02%)Payout163.64%
Stop $9.03Target $13.05(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 8.0:1
Analyst target$15.00+58.7%5 analysts
$13.05our TP
$9.45price
$15.00mean
$31

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.45, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — MFA Financial, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.7
P/E (Fwd)6.3
Mkt Cap$963M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn46.7%
ROE7.4%
Rev Growth-46.5%
Beta1.55
Dividend15.27%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.36bearish
IV46%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
2.3
Volume
2.4
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.3
Uptrend pullback (RSI 32) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.9
Quality Rank
3.5
Value Rank
5.5
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R 8.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $9.31Resistance $10.43

Price Targets

$9
$13
A.Upside+38.1%
A.R:R8.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum
! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MFA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.45, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe. Target $13.05 (+38.1%), stop $9.03 (−4.7%), A.R:R 8.0:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MFA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.05 (+39.9% upside). Target $13.05 (+38.1%), stop $9.03 (−4.7%), A.R:R 8.0:1. Stop-loss: $9.03.

What are the risks of investing in MFA?

Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum.

Is MFA overvalued or undervalued?

MFA Financial, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.7 (forward 6.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MFA?

10 analysts cover MFA with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $15.

What does MFA Financial, Inc. do?MFA Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States....

MFA Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States. It operates through two segments: Mortgage-Related Assets and Lima One. The Mortgage-Related Assets segment primarily invests in and manages a diversified portfolio of residential whole loans, including nonqualified mortgage loans, business purpose loans such as single-family rental loans, single-family and multifamily transitional loans, legacy re-performing and non-performing loans, and agency-eligible investor loans. This segment also invests in residential mortgage-backed securities, including agency MBS, non-agency MBS, and credit risk transfer securities. The Lima One segment includes a stand-alone mortgage origination and servicing business; and originates and services business purpose loans for real estate investors, and related mortgage banking activities. The company offers residential whole loans, including purchased credit deteriorated and non-performing loans; and mortgage servicing rights-related assets. The company's investment activities through a combination of securitization transactions, term loan warehouse financing and repurchase agreement financing. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. MFA Financial, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is based in New York, New York.

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