MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the MFA stock price target?

Take-profit $13.14 (+27.6% upside). Prior stop was $9.94.

Q: Is MFA overvalued or undervalued?

MFA Financial, Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.8 (forward 6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about MFA?

10 analysts cover MFA with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $15.

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $10.29: Near 52-week high (2.6% away); Earnings in 4 days (event risk).

$10.29+27.6% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#3 of 17 REIT - Mortgage

Stop $9.94Target $13.14(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.2:1

Analyst target$15.10+46.7%5 analysts

$13.14our TP

$10.29price

$15.10mean

$31

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $10.29: Near 52-week high (2.6% away); Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Attractive valuation

Strong growth profile

Margin of safety: 48%

Risks

Near 52-week high (2.6% away)

Earnings in 4 days (event risk)

Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.8

P/E (Fwd)6.8

Mkt Cap$1.0B

EV/EBITDA—

Profit Mgn54.3%

ROE9.6%

Rev Growth111.3%

Beta1.62

Dividend14.16%

Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.75bearish

IV56%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.515%1.27

Quality6.515%0.97

Growth7.515%1.13

Momentum4.610%0.46

Sentiment6.410%0.64

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank6.010%0.60

Technical Setup4.45%0.22

Risk Profile4.95%0.25

Catalyst4.05%0.20

Overall (Σ contributions)6.24

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5A.R:R 3.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

61 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $9.41Resistance $10.43

Price Targets

$10

$13

A.Upside+27.7%

A.R:R3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d

Earnings

0/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-05 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MFA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $10.29: Near 52-week high (2.6% away); Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $9.94. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MFA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.14 (+27.6% upside). Prior stop was $9.94. Stop-loss: $9.94.

What are the risks of investing in MFA?

Near 52-week high (2.6% away); Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is MFA overvalued or undervalued?

MFA Financial, Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.8 (forward 6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MFA?

10 analysts cover MFA with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $15.

What does MFA Financial, Inc. do?MFA Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States....

MFA Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States. It operates through two segments: Mortgage-Related Assets and Lima One. The Mortgage-Related Assets segment primarily invests in and manages a diversified portfolio of residential whole loans, including nonqualified mortgage loans, business purpose loans such as single-family rental loans, single-family and multifamily transitional loans, legacy re-performing and non-performing loans, and agency-eligible investor loans. This segment also invests in residential mortgage-backed securities, including agency MBS, non-agency MBS, and credit risk transfer securities. The Lima One segment includes a stand-alone mortgage origination and servicing business; and originates and services business purpose loans for real estate investors, and related mortgage banking activities. The company offers residential whole loans, including purchased credit deteriorated and non-performing loans; and mortgage servicing rights-related assets. The company's investment activities through a combination of securitization transactions, term loan warehouse financing and repurchase agreement financing. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. MFA Financial, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is based in New York, New York.