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Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $13.30 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Ellington Financial Inc., through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, acquires and manages mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets in the United States. It operates in two segments, Investment Portfolio and... Read more

$13.30-1.7% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#8 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
Stop $12.88Target $13.07(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$14.63+10.0%8 analysts
$13.07our TP
$13.30price
$14.63mean
$16

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $13.30 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)
Overbought (RSI 77)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.1
P/E (Fwd)7.1
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn44.6%
ROE8.7%
Rev Growth-0.6%
Beta0.94
Dividend11.84%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.20bearish
IV49%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.1
Quality Rank
3.5
Value Rank
5.0

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.2
Bollinger
1.2
52w Position
9.6
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
77 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.56Resistance $13.34

Price Targets

$13
$13
A.Upside-1.7%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EFC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $13.30 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77. Prior stop was $12.88. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EFC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.07 (-1.7% upside). Prior stop was $12.88. Stop-loss: $12.88.

What are the risks of investing in EFC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Overbought (RSI 77).

Is EFC overvalued or undervalued?

Ellington Financial Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.1 (forward 7.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EFC?

12 analysts cover EFC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $15.

What does Ellington Financial Inc. do?Ellington Financial Inc., through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, acquires and manages...

Ellington Financial Inc., through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, acquires and manages mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets in the United States. It operates in two segments, Investment Portfolio and Longbridge. The company acquires and manages residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by prime jumbo, Alt-A, non-QM, manufactured housing, subprime residential, and single-family-rental mortgage loans; RMBS for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the U.S. government agency or the U.S. government-sponsored entity; residential and commercial mortgage loans; residential mortgage-backed securities; commercial mortgage-backed securities; consumer loans and asset-backed securities backed by consumer loans; investments referencing mortgage servicing rights on traditional forward mortgage loans; collateralized loan obligations; non-mortgage- and mortgage-related derivatives; debt and equity investments in loan origination companies; and other strategic investments. It also offers reverse mortgage loans, including associated financial assets, financing, hedging, and allocated expenses. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for federal income tax purposes that intends to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income as dividends to shareholders. Ellington Financial Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Old Greenwich, Connecticut.

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