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Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Rithm Capital is a global real estate-focused asset manager and internally managed REIT, operating through Origination and Servicing (Newrez), Residential Transitional Lending (Genesis), Asset Management (Sculptor, Crestline), and Investment Portfolio segments. It acquired... Read more

$9.93+23.2% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
Stop $9.49Target $12.23(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$14.06+41.6%8 analysts
$12.23our TP
$9.93price
$14.06mean
$16

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.9
P/E (Fwd)4.1
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn17.8%
ROE8.5%
Rev Growth38.7%
Beta1.19
Dividend10.35%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.23bullish
IV46%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia37%
    10-K Item 1A: '36.8% of Genesis RTLs with a total UPB of approximately $1.3 billion were secured by properties located in California'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Macd
3.4
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.02Resistance $10.27

Price Targets

$9
$12
A.Upside+23.2%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RITM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $12.23 (+23.2%), stop $9.49 (−4.6%), A.R:R 2.5:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RITM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.23 (+23.2% upside). Target $12.23 (+23.2%), stop $9.49 (−4.6%), A.R:R 2.5:1. Stop-loss: $9.49.

What are the risks of investing in RITM?

Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is RITM overvalued or undervalued?

Rithm Capital Corp. trades at a P/E of 8.9 (forward 4.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about RITM?

16 analysts cover RITM with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $14.

What does Rithm Capital Corp. do?Rithm Capital is a global real estate-focused asset manager and internally managed REIT, operating through Origination...

Rithm Capital is a global real estate-focused asset manager and internally managed REIT, operating through Origination and Servicing (Newrez), Residential Transitional Lending (Genesis), Asset Management (Sculptor, Crestline), and Investment Portfolio segments. It acquired Crestline ($324.7M) and Paramount Group Class A office assets ($1.8B) in December 2025.

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