Value
6.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.3 |
| p ocf | 8.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 11.7x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
LADR · Why this verdict
Why Ladder Capital (LADR) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ladder Capital is in a hold-no-new-entry phase: a death cross hard block and momentum failure eliminate new entry, and just 6% upside to the analyst target leaves a thin margin for reward; the business shows genuine underlying strength in its Piotroski score and margins, but the technical backdrop and negative price momentum need to resolve before this becomes actionable.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Three momentum and trend gates have failed simultaneously: the momentum score of 3.1 falls below the required 4.5 threshold, the asymmetry ratio at spot is below the 1.5 minimum, and a death cross has triggered a hard block on new entry—together representing a technically broken price structure that argues against accumulation. Engine gate (failed) | The technical picture would need to recover with the momentum score crossing above 5.0 and the death cross resolving (50-day moving average crossing back above the 200-day) before this pillar is falsified. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is only about 2.2% below its 200-day moving average, and the data notes it is too early to call a confirmed breakdown; a shallow, brief decline near the moving average is not the same as a structural trend reversal. | ||
Despite weak price momentum, the business carries a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and strong net margins near 25%, suggesting that the underlying financial health is sound and that the current technical weakness may not reflect a deterioration in business fundamentals. Quality breakdown | This quality anchor holds if the Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 out of 9 and net margins remain above 20% for the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFor a mortgage REIT, margin strength is heavily influenced by the interest-rate and credit environment; if conditions shift unfavorably, margins can compress quickly and the Piotroski score would likely fall alongside credit quality. | ||
The stock sits about 6% below the analyst take-profit level of $10.72—a gap the bear case itself characterizes as a thin upside margin—leaving little room for price appreciation relative to the uncertainty in the current technical environment. Bear case | The upside case improves materially if the analyst consensus target is revised upward above $11.40, expanding potential gain to more than 12%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 1.7-to-1 at the current price structure is technically favorable; investors already holding at a lower cost basis face much better entry geometry, and 6% appreciation can close organically if the fundamentals hold. | ||
The dividend as a percentage of reported earnings stands at approximately 910%, meaning distributions significantly exceed reported net income; a dividend safety score of only 5.2 out of 10 reflects limited confidence that the payout is sustainable at current levels from an earnings standpoint. Catalyst breakdown | The coverage concern diminishes if the payout ratio relative to reported earnings falls below 200% for 2 consecutive quarters, implying earnings have caught up with distributions. | →Stable |
| CounterThe price-to-cash-flow multiple of 12.0 times suggests operating cash generation may support distributions more comfortably than the earnings-based ratio implies; if cash flows hold up, the reported-earnings gap may overstate the actual coverage risk. | ||
Three momentum and trend gates have failed simultaneously: the momentum score of 3.1 falls below the required 4.5 threshold, the asymmetry ratio at spot is below the 1.5 minimum, and a death cross has triggered a hard block on new entry—together representing a technically broken price structure that argues against accumulation.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The technical picture would need to recover with the momentum score crossing above 5.0 and the death cross resolving (50-day moving average crossing back above the 200-day) before this pillar is falsified.
CounterThe stock is only about 2.2% below its 200-day moving average, and the data notes it is too early to call a confirmed breakdown; a shallow, brief decline near the moving average is not the same as a structural trend reversal.
Despite weak price momentum, the business carries a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and strong net margins near 25%, suggesting that the underlying financial health is sound and that the current technical weakness may not reflect a deterioration in business fundamentals.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- This quality anchor holds if the Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 out of 9 and net margins remain above 20% for the next 4 quarters.
CounterFor a mortgage REIT, margin strength is heavily influenced by the interest-rate and credit environment; if conditions shift unfavorably, margins can compress quickly and the Piotroski score would likely fall alongside credit quality.
The stock sits about 6% below the analyst take-profit level of $10.72—a gap the bear case itself characterizes as a thin upside margin—leaving little room for price appreciation relative to the uncertainty in the current technical environment.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The upside case improves materially if the analyst consensus target is revised upward above $11.40, expanding potential gain to more than 12%.
CounterThe reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 1.7-to-1 at the current price structure is technically favorable; investors already holding at a lower cost basis face much better entry geometry, and 6% appreciation can close organically if the fundamentals hold.
The dividend as a percentage of reported earnings stands at approximately 910%, meaning distributions significantly exceed reported net income; a dividend safety score of only 5.2 out of 10 reflects limited confidence that the payout is sustainable at current levels from an earnings standpoint.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The coverage concern diminishes if the payout ratio relative to reported earnings falls below 200% for 2 consecutive quarters, implying earnings have caught up with distributions.
CounterThe price-to-cash-flow multiple of 12.0 times suggests operating cash generation may support distributions more comfortably than the earnings-based ratio implies; if cash flows hold up, the reported-earnings gap may overstate the actual coverage risk.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.2 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 2.4 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.9 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $358,925 (0.029% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.9 |
| quality rank | 2.9 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.1 |
| support resistance | 6.9 |
| 52w position | 8.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 7.1 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 2.2 |
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Earnings in 1 days
- ▸Dividend: 9.3%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.77
Upside
+8.8%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Technical at 7.0 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.0, Value at 6.5, and Growth at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 2.9, Catalyst at 4.3, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.77 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Momentum Death Cross Hard Block
Trip ifMomentum score recovers above 5.0 and the 50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day moving average.
- P2Strong Piotroski And Margins
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 out of 9 or net margin falls below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Thin Upside Margin To Target
Trip ifAnalyst consensus take-profit target rises above $11.40, expanding upside headroom beyond 12%.
- P4Dividend Payout Coverage Concern
Trip ifDividend payout ratio relative to reported earnings falls below 200% for 2 consecutive quarters.