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LADRLadder Capital CorpSell5.5·$9.78-2.30%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Ladder Capital is in a hold-no-new-entry phase: a death cross hard block and momentum failure eliminate new entry, and just 6% upside to the analyst target leaves a thin margin for reward; the business shows genuine underlying strength in its Piotroski score and margins, but the technical backdrop and negative price momentum need to resolve before this becomes actionable.

Thesis pillars

  • Momentum Death Cross Hard BlockStable
  • Strong Piotroski And MarginsStable
  • Thin Upside Margin To TargetStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Ladder Capital Corp (LADR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $9.78 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Thin upside margin: 9.9%.

Ladder Capital is a commercial real estate investment trust operating balance sheet and conduit mortgage lending, CMBS and other securities investment, and net-leased and diversified real estate ownership. Since its 2008 inception through 2025, Ladder has originated $31.3... Read more

$9.78+9.9% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#14 of 24 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield9.19%(5y avg 8.09%)Payout209.09%
Stop $9.45Target $10.72(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$12.32+26.0%7 analysts
$10.72our TP
$9.78price
$12.32mean
$14

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $9.78 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Thin upside margin: 9.9%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 17d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Ladder Capital Corp

About Ladder Capital Corp

Ladder Capital held a $2.2 billion balance sheet of 73 first mortgage loans, a $2.1 billion CMBS securities portfolio across 115 CUSIPs, and $966.2 million of owned real estate -- 149 net-leased properties and 56 diversified properties -- as of December 31, 2025. The company has originated $31.3 billion of commercial real estate loans since its 2008 founding, with 98.6% of its CMBS holdings rated investment grade and collateral concentrated 11.2% by market value in the New York-Newark-Jersey City metro area.

Ladder earns net interest income from balance sheet first mortgage loans -- typically floating-rate, one-to-five-year loans on transitional properties -- and originates fixed-rate conduit loans for sale into CMBS trusts, generally retaining no ongoing interest once sold. The company funds this lending through a diversified mix of $2.2 billion in senior unsecured notes, an $850 million unsecured revolving credit facility (of which $280 million was drawn), and multiple committed loan repurchase facilities totaling $656.0 million, none of which were drawn at year-end 2025. Ladder's 149 single-tenant net-leased properties, spanning 3.4 million square feet with a 6.7-year weighted average remaining lease term, collected 100% of billed rent in 2025, while its 56 diversified commercial properties collected 98%. The company achieved investment-grade credit ratings from Moody's and Fitch in May 2025, automatically releasing subsidiary guarantees under its revolving credit facility.

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Ladder's 10-K flags that it does not observe formal diversification criteria across property types, tenants, geographies or borrowers, meaning any single large borrower or a downturn concentrated in one property type could disproportionately affect results -- a risk realized in the office sector, where the filing notes hybrid work has structurally reduced space demand, particularly for Class B and C buildings in secondary markets. Layered on top, 11.2% of Ladder's CMBS collateral by market value sits in the New York-Newark-Jersey City metro area, the single largest of the top 25 MSAs where 63.9% of that portfolio's collateral is located, concentrating regional economic risk within an otherwise nationally diversified book.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

From Ladder Capital Corp's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202617d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.9%
Negative momentum
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.8
P/E (Fwd)8.5
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn25.4%
ROE3.7%
Rev Growth1.7%
Beta0.99
Dividend9.19%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.22bullish
IV18%low

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWGeographicNew York-Newark-Jersey City MSA11%
    10-K Item 1: 'with 4.4% and 11.2%, by property count and market value, respectively, of the collateral located in the New York-Newark-Jersey City MSA'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Macd
3.7
Rsi
4.5
Volume
6.1
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.1
Quality Rank
2.9
Growth Rank
3.8
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 17d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.74Resistance $10.21

Price Targets

$9
$11
A.Upside+9.6%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (17d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LADR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $9.78 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Thin upside margin: 9.9%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $9.45. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LADR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.72 (+9.9% upside). Prior stop was $9.45. Stop-loss: $9.45.

What are the risks of investing in LADR?

Thin upside margin: 9.9%; Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA.

Is LADR overvalued or undervalued?

Ladder Capital Corp trades at a P/E of 22.8 (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LADR?

13 analysts cover LADR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Ladder Capital Corp do?Ladder Capital is a commercial real estate investment trust operating balance sheet and conduit mortgage lending, CMBS...

Ladder Capital is a commercial real estate investment trust operating balance sheet and conduit mortgage lending, CMBS and other securities investment, and net-leased and diversified real estate ownership. Since its 2008 inception through 2025, Ladder has originated $31.3 billion of commercial real estate loans and $17.0 billion of conduit loans, of which $16.9 billion were sold into 75 CMBS securitizations, making it one of the largest non-bank contributors to CMBS deals in the United States.

Related stocks: EFC (Ellington Financial Inc.) · RITM (Rithm Capital Corp.) · FBRT (Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.) · ORC (Orchid Island Capital, Inc.) · BXMT (Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.)
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