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Ladder Capital Corp (LADR) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $9.99 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Ladder Capital Corp operates as an internally-managed real estate investment trust in the United States. It operates through three segments: Loans, Securities, and Real Estate. The Loans segment originates and acquires balance sheet loans that provide interim financing to... Read more

$9.99+7.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#9 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield9.21%(5y avg 8.05%)Payout209.09%
Stop $9.67Target $10.72(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$12.32+23.3%7 analysts
$10.72our TP
$9.99price
$12.32mean
$14

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $9.99 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val6.4Qual5.9Grw6.5Mom2.2Sent6.7Ins5.0Peer3.6Tech8.1Risk6.25.5OVERALL

Recent Developments — Ladder Capital Corp

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.3%
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.7
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn25.4%
ROE3.7%
Rev Growth1.7%
Beta1.01
Dividend9.21%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV35%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
2.3
Rsi
3.0
Macd
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.1
Value Rank
2.7
Growth Rank
4.5
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
28 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.85Resistance $10.49

Price Targets

$10
$11
A.Upside+7.3%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LADR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $9.99 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $9.67. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LADR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.72 (+7.3% upside). Prior stop was $9.67. Stop-loss: $9.67.

What are the risks of investing in LADR?

Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Negative momentum.

Is LADR overvalued or undervalued?

Ladder Capital Corp trades at a P/E of 22.7 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LADR?

13 analysts cover LADR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Ladder Capital Corp do?Ladder Capital Corp operates as an internally-managed real estate investment trust in the United States. It operates...

Ladder Capital Corp operates as an internally-managed real estate investment trust in the United States. It operates through three segments: Loans, Securities, and Real Estate. The Loans segment originates and acquires balance sheet loans that provide interim financing to borrowers seeking short-term capital for the acquisition or transition of commercial real estate; originates conduit loans, which are first mortgage loans on commercial real estate properties for sale in commercial mortgage-backed securities securitizations; and invests in note purchase financings, subordinated debt, mezzanine debt, and other structured finance products related to commercial real estate. Its Securities segment invests in CMBS, U.S. Agency securities, corporate bonds, equity securities, and U.S. Treasury securities that are not classified as cash and cash equivalents. The Real Estate segment engages in net leased properties, other diversified real estate, and investments in unconsolidated ventures. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Ladder Capital Corp was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

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