Skip to main content
ADAMAdamas Trust, Inc.Hold6.8·$7.67
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Adamas Trust combines a breakout setup with a favorable reward-to-risk ratio and an earnings catalyst backed by a strong beat streak, but soft momentum, a flagged yield-trap distribution, and proximity to the 52-week high temper the case for adding more.

Thesis pillars

  • Favorable Asymmetry With Margin Of Safety→Stable
  • Breakout Catalyst Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
  • Yield Trap Warning On Distribution→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) Stock Analysis

Sector Rotation edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $7.67, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Negative momentum.

Adamas Trust, Inc. (formerly New York Mortgage Trust) is an internally-managed mortgage REIT investing across an investment portfolio of Agency RMBS, non-Agency RMBS, single-family and business-purpose residential loans, and multi-family mezzanine investments, plus Constructive,... Read more

$7.67+36.6% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#2 of 23 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield15.69%(5y avg 12.91%)Payout57.14%
Stop $7.19Target $10.48(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.8:1
Analyst target$12.04+57.0%6 analysts
$10.48our TP
$7.67price
$12.04mean
$24

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $7.67, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 16d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202616d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)4.6
P/E (Fwd)6.2
Mkt Cap$688M
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn53.0%
ROE16.4%
Rev Growth129.8%
Beta1.30
Dividend15.69%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C10.00bearish
IV55%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R 5.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 16d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
14 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $7.39Resistance $8.89

Price Targets

$7
$10
A.Upside+36.6%
A.R:R5.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (16d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADAM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $7.67, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $10.48 (+36.6%), stop $7.19 (−6.7%), A.R:R 5.8:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADAM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.48 (+36.6% upside). Target $10.48 (+36.6%), stop $7.19 (−6.7%), A.R:R 5.8:1. Stop-loss: $7.19.

What are the risks of investing in ADAM?

Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Negative momentum.

Is ADAM overvalued or undervalued?

Adamas Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 4.6 (forward 6.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ADAM?

12 analysts cover ADAM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Adamas Trust, Inc. do?Adamas Trust, Inc. (formerly New York Mortgage Trust) is an internally-managed mortgage REIT investing across an...

Adamas Trust, Inc. (formerly New York Mortgage Trust) is an internally-managed mortgage REIT investing across an investment portfolio of Agency RMBS, non-Agency RMBS, single-family and business-purpose residential loans, and multi-family mezzanine investments, plus Constructive, a wholly-owned business-purpose loan originator operating in 48 states. The company funds its leveraged portfolio primarily through repurchase agreements, reporting a recourse leverage ratio of approximately 5.0-to-1 as of December 31, 2025.

Related stocks: MFA (MFA Financial, Inc.) · EFC (Ellington Financial Inc.) · RITM (Rithm Capital Corp.) · FBRT (Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.) · STWD (STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S)
Home › Stocks › ADAM

Latest news

Latest News

Yahoo Finance13d ago
Seeking Alpha13d ago
MarketBeat13d ago
MarketBeat13d ago
MarketBeat13d ago
Investing.com13d ago
Yahoo Finance76d ago
TipRanks76d agoEarnings
KING5.com76d agoEarnings
WKYC76d agoEarnings
Wkyc.com76d agoEarnings
Fool.com48d ago
Fox.com20d ago
Investing.com Nigeria83d ago
MarketBeat83d ago
Vinanet.vn55d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com55d agoAnalyst
Fool.com62d ago
Seeking Alpha62d ago
Investing.com62d ago
Loading more...