Kimbell Royalty Partners operates a high-quality royalty business with exceptional free cash flow conversion and strong margins, but revenue has declined 7% year-over-year, price momentum has failed to clear the required threshold, and a 62% concentration in oil sales leaves the partnership directly exposed to commodity-cycle swings — a combination that warrants caution despite the improving near-term earnings estimate trend.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Decline Growth Absent↑Improving
- Oil Commodity Concentration↑Improving
- Rising Earnings Estimates↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Wait for pullback to $14.88. BUY gates pass at $15.15, but concentration risk — Commodity: oil sales (62.0%) and near 52-week high (4.4% away) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $14.88 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.
Kimbell Royalty Partners owns mineral and royalty interests in roughly 12.3 million gross acres and overriding royalty interests in 4.7 million gross acres across 28 U.S. states and all major onshore basins. Revenue comes from royalty payments on oil, gas, and NGL production,... Read more
Wait for pullback to $14.88. BUY gates pass at $15.15, but concentration risk — Commodity: oil sales (62.0%) and near 52-week high (4.4% away) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $14.88 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About Kimbell Royalty Partners
About Kimbell Royalty Partners
Kimbell Royalty Partners held proved reserves of 72,944 MBoe as of December 31, 2025—entirely classified as proved developed reserves with 51.2% liquids content and an average initial five-year decline rate of 13.5%. The partnership owned mineral and royalty interests across roughly 12.3 million gross acres in 28 states, with 54% of aggregate acreage in the Permian Basin and Mid-Continent. At year-end, 85 rigs representing 16.1% of all U.S. continental drilling were active on company acreage.
Kimbell Royalty earns revenue exclusively from royalty payments on oil, natural gas, and NGL production, bearing no obligation for drilling, completion, or operating costs. The 2025 revenue mix was 62% oil, 25% natural gas, and 13% NGLs, with approximately 1,300 operators actively producing on the acreage at year-end. The ten largest operators—including ConocoPhillips, Vital Energy, EOG Resources, Occidental Petroleum, and Diamondback E&P LLC—collectively accounted for 47.1% of revenues, while the single largest purchaser represented just 7.7%. The company's $625.0 million secured revolving credit facility supports potential acquisitions, and the board may allocate a portion of available cash to debt repayment rather than distributions in any given quarter. Royalties received depend on prices operators realize from selling oil, natural gas, and NGL production, exposing the royalty stream to commodity-price movements outside Kimbell's control.
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The absence of a hedging program described in the 10-K means Kimbell Royalty's distributions vary with spot commodity prices: the filing discloses that revenues 'may vary significantly from period to period as a result of changes in volumes of production sold or changes in commodity prices,' and the partnership agreement requires distribution of all available cash each quarter rather than retention for hedging or reserve-replacement capital. With proved developed reserves of 72,944 MBoe declining at 13.5% annually in the initial five-year window, production growth depends on the pace of third-party operator drilling—a variable the partnership cannot control.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
From Kimbell Royalty Partners's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Kimbell Royalty Partners
Latest news
- NEWS KRP Q1 2026 Earnings: Disappointing EPS Miss of 80.5% vs Estimates - Slow Growth Warning - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et negative
- NEWS KRP Q1 2026 Earnings: Disappointing EPS Miss of 80.5% vs Estimates - EPS Guidance Update - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et negative
- NEWS Kimbell Royalty Partners Shows Improved Relative Price Performance; Still Shy Of Benchmark - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily neutral
- NEWS KRP DEVELOPMENT (02421) has dropped 6.557%. The last price is HK$0.57AA Market Move - Price Dropped - AASTOCKS.com — AASTOCKS.com negative
- NEWS KRP (Kimbell) delivers strong Q4 2025 results with 70.2 percent EPS upside and 3.6 percent year over year revenue growth — Cổng thông tin điện tử tỉnh Lào Cai positive
Generated 2026-08-15T11:22:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop ten operators47%10-K Item 1: 'our top ten operators...together accounting for approximately 47.1% of our revenues'
- HIGHCommodityoil sales62%10-K Item 1: 'oil, natural gas and NGL revenues were generated 62% from oil sales, 25% from natural gas sales and 13% from NGL sales'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $14.88. BUY gates pass at $15.15, but concentration risk — Commodity: oil sales (62.0%) and near 52-week high (4.4% away) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $14.88 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $16.70 (+10.2%), stop $14.22 (−6.5%), A.R:R 2.1:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $16.70 (+10.6% upside). Target $16.70 (+10.2%), stop $14.22 (−6.5%), A.R:R 2.1:1. Stop-loss: $14.22.
Concentration risk — Commodity: oil sales (62.0%); Near 52-week high (4.4% away).
Kimbell Royalty Partners trades at a P/E of 18.0 (forward 17.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
11 analysts cover KRP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $19.
What does Kimbell Royalty Partners do?Kimbell Royalty Partners owns mineral and royalty interests in roughly 12.3 million gross acres and overriding royalty...
Kimbell Royalty Partners owns mineral and royalty interests in roughly 12.3 million gross acres and overriding royalty interests in 4.7 million gross acres across 28 U.S. states and all major onshore basins. Revenue comes from royalty payments on oil, gas, and NGL production, with the 2025 mix at 62% oil, 25% natural gas, and 13% NGLs; the non-cost-bearing structure requires no drilling or operating investment.