JNJ shows quality-resilience (V7 bonus +0.2, Q=7.1) with wide moat and BREAKOUT setup (golden cross, RSI 68), but V9 ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE and V8 'Target reached (-2.3% upside)' plus weak growth (2.5) trigger NO_EDGE and AVOID — maintain only.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Engine signal |
|---|---|---|
Quality subscore of 7.1 with ROE 26%, margins 22%, wide economic moat (moat=7.6), and 'Compounder quality' note earns the V7 quality-resilience bonus of +0.2 in RISK_OFF regimes. Bull case (item 1) | Quality subscore stays >= 7.0 and moat component holds above 7.0 across 4 quarters. | →stable |
| CounterQuality.notes flags 'Rule of 40: 23 (fail)' and 'Earnings quality warning: 59% FCF/NI' — quality may be cosmetic above the surface. | ||
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5 (bull_case[1]) provides a structural defensive premium during RISK_OFF regimes. Bull case (item 2) | Healthcare sector modifier stays positive (>= +0.3) across the next 4 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterSector tailwinds are regime-dependent; a shift to RISK_ON could flip the modifier negative as capital rotates to growth. | ||
V9 setup_type=BREAKOUT with rationale 'Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish' plus momentum subscore 7.1 and rising OBV (volume accumulation) confirm institutional buying. Setup type | Momentum subscore stays >= 6.5 with OBV component holding at 10/10 for 2 quarters. | →stable |
| CounterRSI 68 is approaching overbought; bollinger component at 0.0 suggests price is stretched and a mean-reversion pullback is likely. | ||
Quality subscore of 7.1 with ROE 26%, margins 22%, wide economic moat (moat=7.6), and 'Compounder quality' note earns the V7 quality-resilience bonus of +0.2 in RISK_OFF regimes.
→stable- Expectation
- Quality subscore stays >= 7.0 and moat component holds above 7.0 across 4 quarters.
CounterQuality.notes flags 'Rule of 40: 23 (fail)' and 'Earnings quality warning: 59% FCF/NI' — quality may be cosmetic above the surface.
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5 (bull_case[1]) provides a structural defensive premium during RISK_OFF regimes.
→stable- Expectation
- Healthcare sector modifier stays positive (>= +0.3) across the next 4 refreshes.
CounterSector tailwinds are regime-dependent; a shift to RISK_ON could flip the modifier negative as capital rotates to growth.
V9 setup_type=BREAKOUT with rationale 'Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish' plus momentum subscore 7.1 and rising OBV (volume accumulation) confirm institutional buying.
→stable- Expectation
- Momentum subscore stays >= 6.5 with OBV component holding at 10/10 for 2 quarters.
CounterRSI 68 is approaching overbought; bollinger component at 0.0 suggests price is stretched and a mean-reversion pullback is likely.
▸ Show 2 more pillars (SSR-indexed, visually truncated)▾ Show fewer
Bear_case flags 'Weak growth' with growth subscore 2.5, earnings_growth component 0.0/10, and PEG 3.05 — the engine cannot find a growth path.
→stable- Expectation
- Growth subscore must climb above 4.5 with earnings_growth component above 4.0 over 4 quarters to remove this headwind.
CounterDefensive compounders rarely score well on growth; the score may permanently underweight JNJ's stable revenue base.
V9 ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE with current_price $233 above take_profit $229.47, V8 explicitly flags 'Target reached (-2.3% upside)' — no reward setup remains at spot.
→stable- Expectation
- Analyst take_profit advances above $255 (~10% above spot) to restore asymmetry_ratio above 1.0.
CounterAnalyst targets often re-rate upward after sustained breakouts; technicals are bullish and TP may catch up.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $225.33 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth.
Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field worldwide. It operates in two segments, Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The Innovative Medicine segment offers... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $225.33 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 47d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Johnson & Johnson
About Johnson & Johnson
Johnson & Johnson generated approximately $88.8 billion of fiscal 2025 sales across two segments, Innovative Medicine and MedTech, with 43% of revenue sourced outside the United States (23% Europe, 15% Asia-Pacific and Africa, 5% Western Hemisphere ex-US). The DARZALEX franchise alone accounted for 15.0% of total revenues, STELARA contributed 6.5% and TREMFYA delivered 5.5%, anchoring an oncology, immunology and neuroscience-led therapeutic mix supported by 138,200 full-time-equivalent positions worldwide.
The Innovative Medicine segment distributes prescription medicines directly to retailers, wholesalers, distributors, hospitals and healthcare professionals, with concentrated revenue in CAR-T therapy CARVYKTI, daratumumab franchises DARZALEX and DARZALEX FASPRO, prostate-cancer agent ERLEADA, bispecifics TALVEY and TECVAYLI, IL-23 inhibitor TREMFYA, and oral anticoagulant XARELTO co-marketed with Bayer. The MedTech segment sells through hospitals, surgical centers and eye-care professionals, spanning electrophysiology, the Abiomed mechanical circulatory support portfolio, the Shockwave intravascular lithotripsy business, orthopaedics, surgery (including Mentor breast aesthetics) and the ACUVUE contact-lens and TECNIS intraocular-lens vision portfolios. Manufacturing runs through 63 facilities sourcing from thousands of suppliers, with third-party manufacturers producing certain raw materials, component parts and finished products. New products launched within the past five years contributed 25% of 2025 sales, and in October 2025 the company announced its intention to separate the Orthopaedics business, targeting completion within 18 to 24 months after the initial announcement.
Show full overview
The patent-cliff and IRA-pricing lens dominates the forward setup. STELARA, the second-largest product at 6.5% of revenue, faces ongoing global biosimilar launches the filing expects will continue to weigh on STELARA sales, while DARZALEX compound patents expire in the United States in 2029 with royalties to Genmab A/S of $2.4 billion paid in fiscal 2025. XARELTO and STELARA appear on the first CMS Selected Drug list with Medicare Part D pricing beginning in 2026, and in January 2026 CMS added ERLEADA to the 2028 list, pending Janssen's December 2025 U.S. Supreme Court petition challenging the IRA program. Talc litigation involving JOHNSON'S Baby Powder remains an additional overhang where the company self-insures via a captive.
See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
From Johnson & Johnson's most recent 10-K filing, extracted May 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-05-30Recent Developments — Johnson & Johnson
Latest news
- Johnson & Johnson Announces Updated Results From Phase 1/1b CHRYSALIS-2 Study Evaluating Intravenous RYBREVANT In Combin — benzinga May 29, 2026 positive
- Johnson & Johnson Announces New Data From Its Phase 3 MajesTEC-9 Study That Show Clinically Meaningful And Statistically — benzinga May 29, 2026 positive
- Johnson & Johnson Wins FDA Nod for New TREMFYA Benefit in Psoriatic Arthritis Treatment — benzinga May 29, 2026 positive
- Laser Photonics Subsidiary, CMS Laser, Receives $250K Order From Johnson & Johnson For Custom On-The-Fly Laser Drilling — benzinga May 28, 2026 positive
- WHO Chief Tedros Says There Are Currently Almost 750 Suspected Ebola Cases And 177 Suspected Ebola Deaths — benzinga May 22, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-05-30T00:22:22Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $225.33 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $216.97. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $227.66 (+1.0% upside). Prior stop was $216.97. Stop-loss: $216.97.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.
Johnson & Johnson trades at a P/E of 26.7 (forward 18.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
32 analysts cover JNJ with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $253.
What does Johnson & Johnson do?Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of a...
Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field worldwide. It operates in two segments, Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The Innovative Medicine segment offers products for various therapeutic areas, such as oncology, immunology, neuroscience, pulmonary hypertension, infectious diseases, and cardiovascular and metabolism distributed through retailers, wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, and healthcare professionals for prescription use. The MedTech segment provides a portfolio of products used in the surgery, orthopedic, cardiovascular, and vision fields distributed through wholesalers, hospitals and retailers, and used in the professional fields by physicians, nurses, hospitals, eye care professionals and clinics. This segment also offers products and enabling technologies that support joint reconstruction, trauma, spine, sports related injuries, and others, as well as open, laparoscopic, and robotic surgical procedures; instrumentation, energy devices, stapling systems, wound closure, biosurgery products, and digital and robotic technologies; breast aesthetics and reconstruction; contact lenses under the ACUVUE brand; intraocular lenses for cataract surgery, and other products used in cataract and refractive procedures under the TECNIS brand. The company was founded in 1886 and is based in New Brunswick, New Jersey.