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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitAI GATE: FLAGGED — 1 riskModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General

Wait for pullback to $976.96. At $1026.46 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $976.96 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Eli Lilly discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceuticals globally in a single business segment, selling in ~90 countries through wholesalers and healthcare providers. Key products span cardiometabolic (Mounjaro, Zepbound, Jardiance), oncology (Verzenio,... Read more

$1026.46+10.8% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 16 Drug Manufacturers - General
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.01%
IncomeYield0.68%(5y avg 0.91%)Payout22.13%sustainable
Entry $976.96(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $919.63Target $1089.00(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1Setup A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$1210.00+17.9%29 analysts
$1089.00our TP
$1026.46price
$1210.00mean
$850
$1500

Wait for pullback to $976.96. At $1026.46 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $976.96 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.28, quality 8.2/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and news legal. Suitability: conservative.

Val4.2Qual8.2Grw10.0Mom4.9Sent6.5Ins5.0Peer5.9Tech3.3Risk6.86.5OVERALL

Recent Developments — Eli Lilly and Company

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.2 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.2%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)36.2
P/E (Fwd)23.0
Mkt Cap$910.8B
EV/EBITDA26.2
Profit Mgn35.0%
ROE107.5%
Rev Growth55.5%
Beta0.48
Dividend0.68%
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.61bullish
IV45%normal
Max Pain$560-45.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.2
Bollinger
1.5
52w Position
8.3
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotNEWS LEGALMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Conservative
RSI
72 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $849.05Resistance $1037.88

Price Targets

$920
$977
$1089
A.Upside+6.1%
A.R:R0.3:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.3%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! NEWS:LEGAL
! News gate: flagged (1 risks, 0 concerns)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LLY stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $976.96. At $1026.46 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $976.96 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.28, quality 8.2/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $1089.00 (+6.1%), stop $919.63 (−11.6%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LLY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1089.00 (+10.8% upside). Target $1089.00 (+6.1%), stop $919.63 (−11.6%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $919.63.

What are the risks of investing in LLY?

Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Is LLY overvalued or undervalued?

Eli Lilly and Company trades at a P/E of 36.2 (forward 23.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about LLY?

39 analysts cover LLY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $1210.

What does Eli Lilly and Company do?Eli Lilly discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceuticals globally in a single business segment, selling...

Eli Lilly discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceuticals globally in a single business segment, selling in ~90 countries through wholesalers and healthcare providers. Key products span cardiometabolic (Mounjaro, Zepbound, Jardiance), oncology (Verzenio, Kyprolis), immunology (Taltz, Olumiant), and neuroscience; six products collectively accounted for 82% of total revenues in 2025.

Related stocks: GILD (Gilead Sciences, Inc.) · NVO (Novo Nordisk A/S) · GSK (GSK plc) · BMY (Bristol-Myers Squibb Company) · AZN (AstraZeneca PLC)