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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $905.54. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $907.27. Engine's entry $905.54 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Mounjaro and Zepbound (56.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0.

Eli Lilly discovers and markets human pharmaceutical products in a single segment globally. Key products include Mounjaro/Zepbound (GLP-1 class, 56% of 2025 revenues), Verzenio, Trulicity, Taltz, and Jardiance, which collectively accounted for 82% of 2025 revenues.

$907.27+31.1% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 16 Drug Manufacturers - General
Entry $905.54(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $853.62Target $1082.11(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.5:1
Analyst target$1202.34+32.5%29 analysts
$1082.11our TP
$907.27price
$1202.34mean
$1500

Wait for pullback to $905.54. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $907.27. Engine's entry $905.54 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Mounjaro and Zepbound (56.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 24, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: conservative.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Mounjaro and Zepbound (56.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)37.0
P/E (Fwd)20.2
Mkt Cap$760.4B
EV/EBITDA25.1
Profit Mgn31.7%
ROE101.2%
Rev Growth42.6%
Beta0.50
Dividend0.73%
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.28bearish
IV97%elevated
Max Pain$560-38.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductMounjaro and Zepbound56%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Mounjaro and Zepbound accounted for 56 percent of our total revenues in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
5.5
Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dA.R:R 4.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Conservative
RSI
24 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $850.51Resistance $976.68

Price Targets

$854
$906
$1082
A.Upside+19.3%
A.R:R4.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)4.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 2.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LLY stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $905.54. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $907.27. Engine's entry $905.54 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Mounjaro and Zepbound (56.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 24, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $1082.11 (+19.3%), stop $853.62 (−6.3%), Setup A.R:R 4.9:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LLY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1082.11 (+31.1% upside). Target $1082.11 (+19.3%), stop $853.62 (−6.3%), Setup A.R:R 4.9:1. Stop-loss: $853.62.

What are the risks of investing in LLY?

Concentration risk — Product: Mounjaro and Zepbound (56.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0.

Is LLY overvalued or undervalued?

Eli Lilly and Company trades at a P/E of 37.0 (forward 20.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about LLY?

39 analysts cover LLY with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $1202.

What does Eli Lilly and Company do?Eli Lilly discovers and markets human pharmaceutical products in a single segment globally. Key products include...

Eli Lilly discovers and markets human pharmaceutical products in a single segment globally. Key products include Mounjaro/Zepbound (GLP-1 class, 56% of 2025 revenues), Verzenio, Trulicity, Taltz, and Jardiance, which collectively accounted for 82% of 2025 revenues.

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