Eli Lilly is a high-quality healthcare franchise with 56% revenue growth, a wide economic moat, and four consecutive double-digit earnings beats, but the stock has effectively reached the analyst consensus price target with only 0.9% headroom remaining — the setup favors accumulation on weakness rather than initiating at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Wide Moat Margin Quality→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Outperformance→Stable
- Exceptional Revenue Growth Trajectory→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Wait for pullback to $1150.23. Price sits above the model's entry target of $1150.23; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.0% away).
Eli Lilly discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceutical products in a single business segment, with cardiometabolic health products (including Mounjaro, Zepbound, and Jardiance) and oncology (Verzenio) anchoring a portfolio sold in approximately 90 countries. Six... Read more
Wait for pullback to $1150.23. Price sits above the model's entry target of $1150.23; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.0% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Eli Lilly and Company
About Eli Lilly and Company
Mounjaro and Zepbound, Eli Lilly's GLP-1/GIP-based incretin medicines for type 2 diabetes and obesity, together generated 56% of total revenues in 2025 — each individually exceeding $3 billion. Combined with Verzenio (breast cancer), Trulicity, Taltz, and Jardiance, the six highest-revenue products represented 82% of 2025 total revenues. Mounjaro and Zepbound carry U.S. compound patent protection through 2036, and products are sold in approximately 90 countries.
Eli Lilly sells prescription medicines through U.S. wholesale distributors — McKesson Corporation, Cencora, Inc., and Cardinal Health, Inc. — each of which accounts for a significant percentage of consolidated revenue; no other single customer exceeds 10%. Net revenue reflects rebates and discounts negotiated with pharmacy benefit managers and health plans; access to anti-obesity medicines faces particular friction because self-insured U.S. employers must generally opt in for obesity coverage, and payers in many international markets do not cover weight-loss indications. A growing share of U.S. sales flows through LillyDirect, the company's direct-to-patient platform launched to reduce formulary dependency. Jardiance and Basaglar are co-developed with Boehringer Ingelheim, while Tyvyt is commercialized in China with Innovent Biologics.
Show full overview
The Inflation Reduction Act's negotiation mechanism targets Lilly's portfolio directly: HHS selected Jardiance as one of the first ten medicines subject to government-set Medicare prices effective 2026, then in January 2026 selected Trulicity and Verzenio with government pricing effective 2028. Trulicity also faces U.S. compound patent expiry and biologics data protection loss in 2027, concentrating erosion risk within a two-year window. The 10-K notes the company expects additional products selected in future years, which would accelerate revenue erosion further.
See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
From Eli Lilly and Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-28Recent Developments — Eli Lilly and Company
Latest news
- NEWS Eli Lilly (LLY) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key Insights - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com negative
- NEWS Eli Lilly (LLY) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key Insights - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS LLY Stock Price and Chart — NYSE:LLY - tradingview.com — tradingview.com neutral
- NEWS Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Presents at 2026 EASD Annual Meeting - Slideshow (NYSE:LLY) 2026-09-30 - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
- NEWS Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Presents at 2026 EASD Annual Meeting - Slideshow (NYSE:LLY) 2026-09-30 - seekingalpha.com — seekingalpha.com positive
Generated 2026-10-28T11:33:56Z.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $1150.23. Price sits above the model's entry target of $1150.23; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.0% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Analyst target $1227.02 reached (−4.3%), stop $1097.27 (−16.8%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $1227.02 reached (−4.3% from $1281.91); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $1227.02 reached (−4.3%), stop $1097.27 (−16.8%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Stop-loss: $1097.27.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.0% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.
Eli Lilly and Company trades at a P/E of 43.0 (forward 27.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
36 analysts cover LLY with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $1334.
What does Eli Lilly and Company do?Eli Lilly discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceutical products in a single business segment, with...
Eli Lilly discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceutical products in a single business segment, with cardiometabolic health products (including Mounjaro, Zepbound, and Jardiance) and oncology (Verzenio) anchoring a portfolio sold in approximately 90 countries. Six products each generated more than $3 billion in revenue in 2025, collectively representing 82% of total revenues, with GLP-1/GIP medicines Mounjaro and Zepbound alone at 56%.