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HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

AbbVie is a high-quality, low-beta pharmaceutical franchise with a 9/9 Piotroski score and strong momentum, but price is above the analyst target and customer and supplier concentration add risk.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Pharma Franchise↑Improving
  • Strong Uptrend Momentum↓Deteriorating
  • Price Above Analyst Target↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge

HoldGrowthModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $286.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: McKesson, Cardinal Health, Cencora; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers.

AbbVie develops and commercializes biopharmaceuticals across immunology (Skyrizi, Rinvoq, Humira), neuroscience (Vraylar, Botox Therapeutic), oncology (Imbruvica, Venclexta), and aesthetics (Botox Cosmetic, Juvederm). Skyrizi and Rinvoq together accounted for approximately 42%... Read more

$286.00-3.6% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#8 of 16 Drug Manufacturers - General
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield2.42%(5y avg 3.41%)Payout190.40%at-risk
Stop $272.82Analyst target $275.78(reached)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst consensus$306.42+7.1%26 analysts with price targets
$286.00price
$306.42mean
$237
$350

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $286.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: McKesson, Cardinal Health, Cencora; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 91d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About AbbVie Inc.

About AbbVie Inc.

Skyrizi and Rinvoq each exceeded 10% of AbbVie's total net revenues in 2025, together accounting for approximately 42% of consolidated net revenues. Three AbbVie products — Imbruvica, Vraylar, and Botox — have been selected for Medicare government-set pricing under the Inflation Reduction Act, with effective dates of January 2026, January 2027, and January 2028 respectively. AbbVie's portfolio spans immunology, neuroscience, oncology, aesthetics, and eye care, marketed through dedicated commercial organizations across major global markets.

AbbVie generates revenue through wholesale distributors; McKesson Corporation, Cardinal Health, and Cencora collectively handle substantially all U.S. pharmaceutical product sales, with no individual wholesaler exceeding 43% of 2025 gross U.S. revenues. Outside the U.S., the company sells primarily through wholesalers and distributors, working with centralized national payer systems on reimbursement terms. Immunology products including Skyrizi, Rinvoq, and Humira compete against IL-23 inhibitors, IL-17 inhibitors, JAK inhibitors, biosimilars, and other products. In January 2026, AbbVie entered a voluntary agreement with the U.S. government to provide pricing concessions and U.S.-based research and capital investments in exchange for exemptions from tariffs and future pricing mandates for a three-year period. Manufacturing of biologics is complex and may rely on single-source suppliers for certain raw materials, with finding alternative sources potentially requiring significant time and regulatory approvals.

Show full overview

Humira now faces direct biosimilar competition globally, and the 10-K acknowledges that patent expiration is typically followed promptly by substitutes that may significantly reduce sales in a short time. The IRA creates sequential pricing pressure beyond Humira: Imbruvica became subject to Medicare government-set prices in January 2026, Vraylar and Linzess face the same beginning January 2027, and Botox was added for January 2028. The filing warns that more products generating substantial revenues could be selected in future years, which could accelerate revenue erosion prior to expiration of intellectual property protections.

See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General

From AbbVie Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Oct 28, 2026

Recent Developments — AbbVie Inc.

Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:49:36Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Feb 3, 202791d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=9.0 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: McKesson, Cardinal Health, Cencora
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)49.7
P/E (Fwd)17.7
Mkt Cap$505.4B
EV/EBITDA18.0
Profit Mgn15.7%
ROE—
Rev Growth10.3%
Beta0.19
Dividend2.42%
Analysts with ratings38

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.34bearish
IV38%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductSkyrizi and Rinvoq42%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Skyrizi and Rinvoq each represented greater than 10% of AbbVie's total net revenues and, in aggregate, these products accounted for approximately 42% of total net revenues in 2025'
  • HIGHCustomerMcKesson, Cardinal Health, Cencora
    10-K Item 1: '(McKesson Corporation, Cardinal Health, Inc. and Cencora, Inc.) accounted for substantially all of AbbVie's pharmaceutical product sales in the United States'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle-source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'AbbVie uses raw materials and components in its pharmaceutical and biologic manufacturing processes that may be sourced from single suppliers'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.3
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 91d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Conservative
RSI
56 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $264.09Resistance $298.74

Price Targets

A.Upside-3.6%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.6% upside)
! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-03 (91d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ABBV stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $286.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: McKesson, Cardinal Health, Cencora; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $275.78 reached (−3.6%), stop $272.82 (−4.8%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ABBV stock price target?

Analyst target $275.78 reached (−3.6% from $286.00); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $275.78 reached (−3.6%), stop $272.82 (−4.8%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $272.82.

What are the risks of investing in ABBV?

Concentration risk — Customer: McKesson, Cardinal Health, Cencora; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is ABBV overvalued or undervalued?

AbbVie Inc. trades at a P/E of 49.7 (forward 17.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ABBV?

38 analysts rate ABBV, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 26 analysts publish price targets averaging $306.

What does AbbVie Inc. do?AbbVie develops and commercializes biopharmaceuticals across immunology (Skyrizi, Rinvoq, Humira), neuroscience...

AbbVie develops and commercializes biopharmaceuticals across immunology (Skyrizi, Rinvoq, Humira), neuroscience (Vraylar, Botox Therapeutic), oncology (Imbruvica, Venclexta), and aesthetics (Botox Cosmetic, Juvederm). Skyrizi and Rinvoq together accounted for approximately 42% of 2025 net revenues; McKesson, Cardinal Health, and Cencora collectively handle substantially all U.S. pharmaceutical product sales.

Related stocks: SNY (Sanofi) · LLY (Eli Lilly and Company) · AMGN (Amgen Inc.) · AZN (AstraZeneca PLC) · BMY (Bristol-Myers Squibb Company)
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