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AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General

Sell if holding. At $209.51, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Concentration risk — Customer: McKesson, Cardinal Health, Cencora.

AbbVie is a diversified biopharmaceutical company with marketed products spanning immunology (Skyrizi, Rinvoq, Humira), neuroscience (Vraylar, Botox Therapeutic), oncology, and aesthetics sold globally. Skyrizi and Rinvoq together represented approximately 42% of total net... Read more

$209.51+8.7% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#14 of 16 Drug Manufacturers - General
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.60%
IncomeYield3.29%(5y avg 3.62%)Payout325.98%at-risk
Stop $197.84Target $227.61(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$252.90+20.7%29 analysts
$227.61our TP
$209.51price
$252.90mean
$184
$328

Sell if holding. At $209.51, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Concentration risk — Customer: McKesson, Cardinal Health, Cencora. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — AbbVie Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.1 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: McKesson, Cardinal Health, Cencora
Thin upside margin: 8.7%
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)103.1
P/E (Fwd)13.0
Mkt Cap$371.7B
EV/EBITDA14.6
Profit Mgn5.8%
ROE
Rev Growth12.4%
Beta0.30
Dividend3.29%
Rating analysts40

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.66bearish
IV37%normal
Max Pain$125-40.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerMcKesson, Cardinal Health, Cencora
    10-K Item 1: 'three wholesale distributors (McKesson Corporation, Cardinal Health, Inc. and Cencora, Inc.) accounted for substantially all of AbbVie's pharmaceutical product sales in the United States'
  • MEDIUMProductSkyrizi and Rinvoq42%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Skyrizi and Rinvoq each represented greater than 10% of AbbVie's total net revenues and, in aggregate, these products accounted for approximately 42% of total net revenues in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
5.6

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.3
Quality Rank
1.3
Growth Rank
7.5

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $190.75Resistance $214.92

Price Targets

$198
$228
A.Upside+8.6%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Reward/Risk 1.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ABBV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $209.51, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Concentration risk — Customer: McKesson, Cardinal Health, Cencora. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $197.84. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ABBV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $227.61 (+8.7% upside). Prior stop was $197.84. Stop-loss: $197.84.

What are the risks of investing in ABBV?

Concentration risk — Customer: McKesson, Cardinal Health, Cencora; Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is ABBV overvalued or undervalued?

AbbVie Inc. trades at a P/E of 103.1 (forward 13.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ABBV?

40 analysts cover ABBV with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $253.

What does AbbVie Inc. do?AbbVie is a diversified biopharmaceutical company with marketed products spanning immunology (Skyrizi, Rinvoq, Humira),...

AbbVie is a diversified biopharmaceutical company with marketed products spanning immunology (Skyrizi, Rinvoq, Humira), neuroscience (Vraylar, Botox Therapeutic), oncology, and aesthetics sold globally. Skyrizi and Rinvoq together represented approximately 42% of total net revenues in 2025, with three wholesale distributors accounting for substantially all U.S. pharmaceutical product sales.

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