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NVONovo Nordisk A/SHold5.6·$40.19
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Novo Nordisk is a large-cap pharmaceutical company with exceptional 71% return on equity, 37% net margins, and 24% revenue growth, but a confirmed long-term downtrend, elevated put/call ratio of 4.95, and consecutive earnings misses create near-term caution.

Thesis pillars

  • Elite Margins And Returns→Stable
  • Earnings Miss Streak Deceleration→Stable
  • Confirmed Long Term Downtrend↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Hold(was: Buy (Wait for Entry))ValueQualityModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General

Earnings today — results expected after close (2026-11-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.

Novo Nordisk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and distribution of pharmaceutical products. It operates through two segments, Obesity and Diabetes Care, and Rare Disease. The Obesity and Diabetes care segment provides... Read more

$40.19-2.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#9 of 16 Drug Manufacturers - General
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield21.25%
IncomeYield4.47%(5y avg 1.51%)Payout45.09%sustainable
Entry $39.42(1 ATR pullback)Stop $37.88Analyst target $39.38(reached)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst consensus$45.26+12.6%12 analysts with price targets
$40.19price
$45.26mean
$62

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $40.19 vs the analyst target $39.38: -2.0% upside; No upside left. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.90, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Nov 3, 2026

Recent Developments — Novo Nordisk A/S

Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:49:37Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 2026Earnings today — results expected after close· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak growth
Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.9
P/E (Fwd)11.7
Mkt Cap$177.3B
EV/EBITDA1.6
Profit Mgn35.3%
ROE59.8%
Rev Growth2.1%
Beta0.37
Dividend4.47%
Analysts with ratings36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.08bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$30-25.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.0

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.5
Support Resistance
1.8
52w Position
3.0
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.90SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
64 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $37.51Resistance $40.78

Price Targets

A.Upside-2.0%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings today - binary event risk
! Target reached (-2.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (Earnings today — results expected after close)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $40.19 vs the analyst target $39.38: -2.0% upside; No upside left. Analyst target $39.38 reached (−2.0%), stop $37.88 (−6.1%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NVO stock price target?

Analyst target $39.38 reached (−2.0% from $40.19); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $39.38 reached (−2.0%), stop $37.88 (−6.1%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $37.88.

What are the risks of investing in NVO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is NVO overvalued or undervalued?

Novo Nordisk A/S trades at a P/E of 9.9 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NVO?

36 analysts rate NVO, with a consensus score of 3.2/5. 12 analysts publish price targets averaging $45.

What does Novo Nordisk A/S do?Novo Nordisk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and...

Novo Nordisk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and distribution of pharmaceutical products. It operates through two segments, Obesity and Diabetes Care, and Rare Disease. The Obesity and Diabetes care segment provides products for diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular, and other emerging therapy areas. The Rare Disease segment offers products in the areas of rare blood disorders, rare endocrine disorders, and hormone replacement therapy. The company also provides NovoPen 6 and NovoPen Echo Plus, smart insulin pens; Dose Check, an insulin dose guidance application; growth hormone pens and injection needles; and Wegovy pill an oral glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist therapy for weight management. The company has a collaboration with Anthropic accelerate the development of new medicines and advance AI-driven software development. It operates in Europe, Canada, the United States, Japan, Korea, Oceania, Southeast Asia, Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. It has a strategic collaboration with Orbis Medicines to discover and develop oral macrocycle therapeutics for cardiometabolic diseases. The company was formerly known as Novo Industri A/S and changed its name to Novo Nordisk A/S in April 1989. The company was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.

Related stocks: SNY (Sanofi) · LLY (Eli Lilly and Company) · AMGN (Amgen Inc.) · AZN (AstraZeneca PLC) · BIIB (Biogen Inc.)
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