A high-quality healthcare franchise with strong margins, a wide economic moat, and strong price momentum has already surpassed its near-term resistance target, leaving the risk/reward unfavorable for new exposure; the setup favors holding an existing position while monitoring the dividend sustainability concern and the most recent earnings miss.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Margins Moat→Stable
- Strong Technical Breakout Setup→Stable
- Dividend Yield Safety Concern→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $261.44 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.4% away).
Johnson & Johnson develops and markets pharmaceutical and medical technology products globally across Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments, employing approximately 138,200 full-time equivalents. Revenue comes from prescription medicines, devices, and contact lenses sold... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $261.44 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.4% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Johnson & Johnson
About Johnson & Johnson
Johnson & Johnson generated fiscal 2025 revenue across two segments: Innovative Medicine, covering oncology, immunology, neuroscience, pulmonary hypertension, infectious diseases, and cardiovascular therapies, and MedTech, covering cardiovascular devices, orthopaedics, surgery, and vision care. DARZALEX accounted for approximately 15.0% of fiscal 2025 revenues, STELARA for about 6.5%, and TREMFYA for 5.5%. About 43% of fiscal 2025 sales occurred outside the U.S., with roughly 23% in Europe and 15% in Asia-Pacific and Africa, across operations employing 138,200 full-time equivalents worldwide.
The Innovative Medicine segment sells prescription medicines — including CAR-T therapies, bispecific antibodies, and anticoagulants — through wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, and direct to healthcare professionals. The MedTech segment distributes cardiovascular devices, orthopaedic implants, surgical instruments, and ACUVUE contact lenses to hospitals and eye care professionals worldwide. Revenue is affected by government and private payer reimbursement decisions; the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 subjected XARELTO, STELARA, and IMBRUVICA to government-established Medicare pricing beginning in 2026. ERLEADA was added to the 2028 Selected Drug list in January 2026. Janssen Pharmaceuticals challenged the IRA's constitutionality; in December 2025, it sought Supreme Court review of the Third Circuit's ruling. In October 2025, the company announced plans to separate its Orthopaedics business within 18 to 24 months.
Show full overview
DARZALEX faces a patent expiration in the United States in 2029; Janssen Biotech licenses the compound patents from Genmab A/S at royalty rates ranging from 12% to 20% of total DARZALEX net sales, with royalties of about $2.4 billion paid in fiscal 2025 alone. STELARA, contributing 6.5% of total revenues, faces active biosimilar competition globally as multiple biologics license applications have been filed with the U.S. FDA and the European Medicines Agency. Combined, these two products represent roughly 21.5% of fiscal 2025 revenues and both are subject to near-term exclusivity pressure.
See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
From Johnson & Johnson's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — Johnson & Johnson
Latest news
- NEWS Johnson & Johnson to Host Investor Conference Call on Second-Quarter Results - Business Wire — Business Wire neutral
- NEWS Why We Increased The Position In Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Is Johnson & Johnson Stock Outperforming the Dow? - Barchart.com — Barchart.com positive
- NEWS Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Shares Fall 2.4% -- What GF Score of 87 Tells Investors - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Stock Analysis: Exploring a 12.22% Potential Upside Amidst Strong Dividend Yield - DirectorsTalk — DirectorsTalk Interviews positive
Generated 2026-07-07T10:21:37Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWProductDARZALEX15%10-K Item 1: 'Sales of the Company's largest product, collectively DARZALEX (daratumumab) and DARZALEX FASPRO ... accounted for approximately 15.0% of the Company's total revenues for fiscal 2025'
- LOWGeographicEurope23%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 43% of the Company's sales occurred outside of the U.S., with approximately 23% in Europe'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $261.44 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.4% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $246.35. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $257.84 (-0.6% upside). Prior stop was $246.35. Stop-loss: $246.35.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.4% away); Expensive valuation.
Johnson & Johnson trades at a P/E of 30.5 (forward 20.7). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
31 analysts cover JNJ with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $258.
What does Johnson & Johnson do?Johnson & Johnson develops and markets pharmaceutical and medical technology products globally across Innovative...
Johnson & Johnson develops and markets pharmaceutical and medical technology products globally across Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments, employing approximately 138,200 full-time equivalents. Revenue comes from prescription medicines, devices, and contact lenses sold through wholesalers, hospitals, and healthcare professionals. DARZALEX, its largest product, accounted for approximately 15% of fiscal 2025 revenues.