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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Stock Analysis

HoldAI GATE: FLAGGED — 1 risk, 1 concernModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $228.92, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.

Johnson & Johnson develops, manufactures and sells healthcare products through two segments: Innovative Medicine (prescription therapies across oncology, immunology, neuroscience, pulmonary hypertension, infectious diseases and cardiovascular/metabolism) and MedTech... Read more

$228.92-0.6% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#13 of 16 Drug Manufacturers - General
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.27%
IncomeYield2.34%(5y avg 2.77%)Payout60.25%
Stop $221.18Target $227.49(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$252.96+10.5%24 analysts
$227.49our TP
$228.92price
$252.96mean
$155
$285

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $228.92, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and news legal. Suitability: moderate.

About Johnson & Johnson

Johnson & Johnson generated approximately $88.8 billion of fiscal 2025 sales across two segments, Innovative Medicine and MedTech, with 43% of revenue sourced outside the United States (23% Europe, 15% Asia-Pacific and Africa, 5% Western Hemisphere ex-US). The DARZALEX franchise alone accounted for 15.0% of total revenues, STELARA contributed 6.5% and TREMFYA delivered 5.5%, anchoring an oncology, immunology and neuroscience-led therapeutic mix supported by 138,200 full-time-equivalent positions worldwide.

The Innovative Medicine segment distributes prescription medicines directly to retailers, wholesalers, distributors, hospitals and healthcare professionals, with concentrated revenue in CAR-T therapy CARVYKTI, daratumumab franchises DARZALEX and DARZALEX FASPRO, prostate-cancer agent ERLEADA, bispecifics TALVEY and TECVAYLI, IL-23 inhibitor TREMFYA, and oral anticoagulant XARELTO co-marketed with Bayer. The MedTech segment sells through hospitals, surgical centers and eye-care professionals, spanning electrophysiology, the Abiomed mechanical circulatory support portfolio, the Shockwave intravascular lithotripsy business, orthopaedics, surgery (including Mentor breast aesthetics) and the ACUVUE contact-lens and TECNIS intraocular-lens vision portfolios. Manufacturing runs through 63 facilities sourcing from thousands of suppliers, with third-party manufacturers producing certain raw materials, component parts and finished products. New products launched within the past five years contributed 25% of 2025 sales, and in October 2025 the company announced its intention to separate the Orthopaedics business, targeting completion within 18 to 24 months after the initial announcement.

Show full overview

The patent-cliff and IRA-pricing lens dominates the forward setup. STELARA, the second-largest product at 6.5% of revenue, faces ongoing global biosimilar launches the filing expects will continue to weigh on STELARA sales, while DARZALEX compound patents expire in the United States in 2029 with royalties to Genmab A/S of $2.4 billion paid in fiscal 2025. XARELTO and STELARA appear on the first CMS Selected Drug list with Medicare Part D pricing beginning in 2026, and in January 2026 CMS added ERLEADA to the 2028 list, pending Janssen's December 2025 U.S. Supreme Court petition challenging the IRA program. Talc litigation involving JOHNSON'S Baby Powder remains an additional overhang where the company self-insures via a captive.

See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General

From Johnson & Johnson's most recent 10-K filing, extracted May 16, 2026.

Recent Developments — Johnson & Johnson

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.1 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.5
P/E (Fwd)18.0
Mkt Cap$551.1B
EV/EBITDA17.0
Profit Mgn21.8%
ROE26.4%
Rev Growth9.9%
Beta0.26
Dividend2.34%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.49bullish
IV37%normal
Max Pain$270+17.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
5.0
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVENEWS LEGALMomentum 7.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $220.37Resistance $232.13

Price Targets

$221
$227
A.Upside-0.6%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! NEWS:LEGAL

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-15 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JNJ stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $228.92, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $227.49 (-0.6%), stop $221.18 (−3.5%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the JNJ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $227.49 (-0.6% upside). Target $227.49 (-0.6%), stop $221.18 (−3.5%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $221.18.

What are the risks of investing in JNJ?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.

Is JNJ overvalued or undervalued?

Johnson & Johnson trades at a P/E of 26.5 (forward 18.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about JNJ?

32 analysts cover JNJ with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $253.

What does Johnson & Johnson do?Johnson & Johnson develops, manufactures and sells healthcare products through two segments: Innovative Medicine...

Johnson & Johnson develops, manufactures and sells healthcare products through two segments: Innovative Medicine (prescription therapies across oncology, immunology, neuroscience, pulmonary hypertension, infectious diseases and cardiovascular/metabolism) and MedTech (cardiovascular, orthopaedics, surgery and vision products). The company sells medicines to retailers, wholesalers, distributors, hospitals and healthcare professionals, and distributes MedTech products to hospitals, surgical centers and eye care professionals worldwide. In fiscal 2025, 43% of sales occurred outside the United Stat

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