A wide economic moat, four consecutive earnings beats, and 27% upside to analyst targets make this exchange operator a high-quality candidate for patient capital, but a hard death-cross technical block and confirmed downtrend mean the setup requires the price trend to reverse before the fundamental quality can translate into realized returns.
Thesis pillars
- Wide Moat Compounder Quality→Stable
- Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak↑Improving
- Strong Revenue Growth Industry Leader→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $145.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Exchanges segment (55.0%); Earnings in 5 days (event risk).
Intercontinental Exchange operates 13 regulated exchanges and 6 clearing houses globally, spanning energy, agricultural, financial derivatives, equities, and mortgage technology across the U.S., UK, EU, Canada, and Asia Pacific. The three operating segments — Exchanges (55%),... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $145.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Exchanges segment (55.0%); Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Intercontinental Exchange Inc.
About Intercontinental Exchange Inc.
Intercontinental Exchange generated approximately $9.9 billion in consolidated revenues, less transaction-based expenses in 2025, divided across three segments: Exchanges contributed $5.4 billion (55%), Fixed Income and Data Services contributed $2.4 billion (24%), and Mortgage Technology contributed $2.1 billion (21%). ICE operates 13 regulated exchanges and 6 clearing houses in the U.S., UK, EU, Canada, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East, employing 12,844 people globally — including 3,512 in India and 799 in the UK — as of December 31, 2025.
The Exchanges segment earns transaction fees from derivatives trading across energy, agricultural, metals, and financial products, listing fees from the NYSE — where approximately 70% of S&P 500 companies were listed and ICE held roughly $10.1 trillion of ETF assets under management as of December 31, 2025 — and recurring data and connectivity fees. The Fixed Income and Data Services segment provides pricing and reference data for over 3 million fixed income securities across 150 countries and 80 currencies, with revenues that are largely recurring in nature. Mortgage Technology earns a mix of SaaS subscription fees and transaction-based fees from lenders, servicers, and title agents across the U.S. residential mortgage lifecycle. ICE's cost structure is described in the 10-K as largely fixed, meaning that revenue declines — such as the sustained mortgage-volume reduction triggered by Federal Reserve rate increases beginning in 2022 — have a disproportionate impact on net income.
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ICE's Mortgage Technology revenues are directly tied to residential mortgage origination volumes, which have remained depressed since the Federal Reserve began raising rates in 2022. The 10-K describes mortgage lending volume as having 'decreased substantially' from that point, with the trend only 'stalled or partially reversed at times in 2023, 2024 and 2025.' Transaction-based mortgage fees, which fluctuate with loan closings, represent the most cyclically exposed component of ICE's revenue base; if interest rates remain elevated in 2026, this segment's transactional revenues could weigh on overall group performance even if Exchanges and Fixed Income recurring fee streams remain stable.
See also: Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
From Intercontinental Exchange Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Intercontinental Exchange Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Fund Update: 346,099 INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE (ICE) shares added to MEITAV INVESTMENT HOUSE LTD portfolio - Quiver Quan — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Q1 Earnings: What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Extends Partnership with CNBC - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS MultiLynq Becomes First Provider to Offer Connectivity to ICE Bonds' RMA Protocol - Business Wire — Business Wire positive
- NEWS ICE Coffee Warehouse Stocks Down 13,660 Bags at 1,864,372 Bags… - stonex.com — stonex.com neutral
Generated 2026-07-26T05:12:16Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductExchanges segment55%10-K Item 1: 'Our Exchanges segment generated revenues, less transaction-based expenses of $5.4 billion and accounted for 55% of our consolidated revenues'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $145.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Exchanges segment (55.0%); Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $163.74 (+12.3%), stop $138.37 (−5.4%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $163.74 (+12.3% upside). Target $163.74 (+12.3%), stop $138.37 (−5.4%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $138.37.
Concentration risk — Product: Exchanges segment (55.0%); Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.8 (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Hold.
21 analysts cover ICE with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $182.
What does Intercontinental Exchange Inc. do?Intercontinental Exchange operates 13 regulated exchanges and 6 clearing houses globally, spanning energy,...
Intercontinental Exchange operates 13 regulated exchanges and 6 clearing houses globally, spanning energy, agricultural, financial derivatives, equities, and mortgage technology across the U.S., UK, EU, Canada, and Asia Pacific. The three operating segments — Exchanges (55%), Fixed Income and Data Services (24%), and Mortgage Technology (21%) — generated a combined ~$9.9 billion in consolidated revenues less transaction-based expenses in 2025.