A wide economic moat, four consecutive earnings beats, and 27% upside to analyst targets make this exchange operator a high-quality candidate for patient capital, but a hard death-cross technical block and confirmed downtrend mean the setup requires the price trend to reverse before the fundamental quality can translate into realized returns.
Thesis pillars
- Wide Moat Compounder Quality→Stable
- Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Strong Revenue Growth Industry Leader→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
Wait for pullback to $153.81. At $158.41 the A.R:R is 0.9:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $153.81 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Exchanges segment (55.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.2%.
Intercontinental Exchange operates 13 regulated exchanges and 6 clearing houses globally, spanning energy, agricultural, financial derivatives, equities, and mortgage technology across the U.S., UK, EU, Canada, and Asia Pacific. The three operating segments — Exchanges (55%),... Read more
Wait for pullback to $153.81. At $158.41 the A.R:R is 0.9:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $153.81 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Exchanges segment (55.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.2%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Intercontinental Exchange Inc.
About Intercontinental Exchange Inc.
Intercontinental Exchange generated approximately $9.9 billion in consolidated revenues, less transaction-based expenses in 2025, divided across three segments: Exchanges contributed $5.4 billion (55%), Fixed Income and Data Services contributed $2.4 billion (24%), and Mortgage Technology contributed $2.1 billion (21%). ICE operates 13 regulated exchanges and 6 clearing houses in the U.S., UK, EU, Canada, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East, employing 12,844 people globally — including 3,512 in India and 799 in the UK — as of December 31, 2025.
The Exchanges segment earns transaction fees from derivatives trading across energy, agricultural, metals, and financial products, listing fees from the NYSE — where approximately 70% of S&P 500 companies were listed and ICE held roughly $10.1 trillion of ETF assets under management as of December 31, 2025 — and recurring data and connectivity fees. The Fixed Income and Data Services segment provides pricing and reference data for over 3 million fixed income securities across 150 countries and 80 currencies, with revenues that are largely recurring in nature. Mortgage Technology earns a mix of SaaS subscription fees and transaction-based fees from lenders, servicers, and title agents across the U.S. residential mortgage lifecycle. ICE's cost structure is described in the 10-K as largely fixed, meaning that revenue declines — such as the sustained mortgage-volume reduction triggered by Federal Reserve rate increases beginning in 2022 — have a disproportionate impact on net income.
Show full overview
ICE's Mortgage Technology revenues are directly tied to residential mortgage origination volumes, which have remained depressed since the Federal Reserve began raising rates in 2022. The 10-K describes mortgage lending volume as having 'decreased substantially' from that point, with the trend only 'stalled or partially reversed at times in 2023, 2024 and 2025.' Transaction-based mortgage fees, which fluctuate with loan closings, represent the most cyclically exposed component of ICE's revenue base; if interest rates remain elevated in 2026, this segment's transactional revenues could weigh on overall group performance even if Exchanges and Fixed Income recurring fee streams remain stable.
See also: Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
From Intercontinental Exchange Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-16Recent Developments — Intercontinental Exchange Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Reports Q2: Everything You Need To Know Ahead Of Earnings - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Fund Update: 346,099 INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE (ICE) shares added to MEITAV INVESTMENT HOUSE LTD portfolio - Quiver Quan — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Q1 Earnings: What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Extends Partnership with CNBC - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS MultiLynq Becomes First Provider to Offer Connectivity to ICE Bonds' RMA Protocol - Business Wire — Business Wire positive
Generated 2026-10-16T11:37:14Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductExchanges segment55%10-K Item 1: 'Our Exchanges segment generated revenues, less transaction-based expenses of $5.4 billion and accounted for 55% of our consolidated revenues'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $153.81. At $158.41 the A.R:R is 0.9:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $153.81 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Exchanges segment (55.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.2%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $168.30 (+6.2%), stop $147.89 (−7.1%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $168.30 (+6.2% upside). Target $168.30 (+6.2%), stop $147.89 (−7.1%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Stop-loss: $147.89.
Concentration risk — Product: Exchanges segment (55.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.2%.
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.1 (forward 17.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
20 analysts cover ICE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $187.
What does Intercontinental Exchange Inc. do?Intercontinental Exchange operates 13 regulated exchanges and 6 clearing houses globally, spanning energy,...
Intercontinental Exchange operates 13 regulated exchanges and 6 clearing houses globally, spanning energy, agricultural, financial derivatives, equities, and mortgage technology across the U.S., UK, EU, Canada, and Asia Pacific. The three operating segments — Exchanges (55%), Fixed Income and Data Services (24%), and Mortgage Technology (21%) — generated a combined ~$9.9 billion in consolidated revenues less transaction-based expenses in 2025.