Value
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.5 |
| P/S | 4.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.92
ICE · Why this verdict
Why Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A wide economic moat, four consecutive earnings beats, and 27% upside to analyst targets make this exchange operator a high-quality candidate for patient capital, but a hard death-cross technical block and confirmed downtrend mean the setup requires the price trend to reverse before the fundamental quality can translate into realized returns.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A wide economic moat alongside a Rule of 40 score of 56, strong margins of approximately 38%, and a Piotroski financial-health score of 8 out of 9 establish this as a franchise with durable competitive advantages and the financial profile of a business that compounds returns over time. Quality breakdown | Operating margins remain above 35% in each of the next two annual filings, confirming that the moat is translating into durable profitability. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOver half of revenue derives from the Exchanges segment, a concentration that introduces regulatory and competitive risk; if that segment faces pricing pressure or structural market changes, the wide-moat narrative would be tested at its most load-bearing point. | ||
Four consecutive quarters of positive earnings surprises, with an average beat of roughly 3.7% per quarter, demonstrate consistent execution discipline and the ability to deliver ahead of analyst expectations through varying conditions. Catalyst breakdown | The next quarterly report extends the streak to five consecutive positive surprises, with EPS surprise remaining above 0%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAverage quarterly surprises of roughly 3.7% are narrow, suggesting that the beats reflect modest conservative guidance rather than dramatic operational outperformance; any softness in underlying exchange volumes or fee revenues could quickly break the streak. | ||
Revenue grew approximately 20% year-over-year, ranking this company as a growth leader within its financial data and exchange industry peer group, suggesting the business is gaining structural volume and fee momentum. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year revenue growth remains above 12% in each of the next two reported quarters, sustaining the above-peer trajectory. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh segment concentration means revenue growth is heavily correlated to market trading volumes, which are cyclical — a reduction in volatility or trading activity could compress top-line growth toward single digits rapidly. | ||
At approximately 27% below the consensus analyst take-profit target of $177.90, the stock offers a risk/reward ratio of approximately 4.7-to-1 that compensates patient holders for the near-term technical headwinds. Price targets | Price advances more than 15% from current levels toward the $177.90 target within 12 months as the technical overhang resolves. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets are anchored to prior, higher-price conditions; if the business enters a volume slowdown cycle, consensus may revise targets downward, reducing or eliminating the stated upside gap. | ||
A death cross formation with price below all major moving averages, an RSI reading of 30, and a bearish MACD signal constitute a confirmed downtrend that represents the primary near-term risk to realizing the fundamental upside case. Momentum breakdown | Price recaptures the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns flat or positive within 60 days, signaling that the technical headwind is resolving. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn RSI reading of 30 is an oversold level that historically marks the lower bound of pullbacks for quality franchises; this level may be closer to an attractive accumulation point than a signal of further deterioration. | ||
A wide economic moat alongside a Rule of 40 score of 56, strong margins of approximately 38%, and a Piotroski financial-health score of 8 out of 9 establish this as a franchise with durable competitive advantages and the financial profile of a business that compounds returns over time.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain above 35% in each of the next two annual filings, confirming that the moat is translating into durable profitability.
CounterOver half of revenue derives from the Exchanges segment, a concentration that introduces regulatory and competitive risk; if that segment faces pricing pressure or structural market changes, the wide-moat narrative would be tested at its most load-bearing point.
Four consecutive quarters of positive earnings surprises, with an average beat of roughly 3.7% per quarter, demonstrate consistent execution discipline and the ability to deliver ahead of analyst expectations through varying conditions.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The next quarterly report extends the streak to five consecutive positive surprises, with EPS surprise remaining above 0%.
CounterAverage quarterly surprises of roughly 3.7% are narrow, suggesting that the beats reflect modest conservative guidance rather than dramatic operational outperformance; any softness in underlying exchange volumes or fee revenues could quickly break the streak.
Revenue grew approximately 20% year-over-year, ranking this company as a growth leader within its financial data and exchange industry peer group, suggesting the business is gaining structural volume and fee momentum.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue growth remains above 12% in each of the next two reported quarters, sustaining the above-peer trajectory.
CounterHigh segment concentration means revenue growth is heavily correlated to market trading volumes, which are cyclical — a reduction in volatility or trading activity could compress top-line growth toward single digits rapidly.
At approximately 27% below the consensus analyst take-profit target of $177.90, the stock offers a risk/reward ratio of approximately 4.7-to-1 that compensates patient holders for the near-term technical headwinds.
↓DeterioratingPrice targets
- Expectation
- Price advances more than 15% from current levels toward the $177.90 target within 12 months as the technical overhang resolves.
CounterAnalyst targets are anchored to prior, higher-price conditions; if the business enters a volume slowdown cycle, consensus may revise targets downward, reducing or eliminating the stated upside gap.
A death cross formation with price below all major moving averages, an RSI reading of 30, and a bearish MACD signal constitute a confirmed downtrend that represents the primary near-term risk to realizing the fundamental upside case.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price recaptures the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns flat or positive within 60 days, signaling that the technical headwind is resolving.
CounterAn RSI reading of 30 is an oversold level that historically marks the lower bound of pullbacks for quality franchises; this level may be closer to an attractive accumulation point than a signal of further deterioration.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.8 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.6 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 38%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 7% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 17 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.2 |
| EPS growth | 5.5 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
Insider
5.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $5,787,801 (0.006% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 10.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 6.1 |
| put call | 8.5 |
| implied vol | 7.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 6.2 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $130
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:92d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.06
Upside
-0.8%
Downside
12.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9; weakest: Technical at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9, Sentiment at 6.8, and Momentum at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Value at 4.6, and Peer rank at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Wide Moat Compounder Quality
Trip ifOperating margin compresses below 30% from the current approximately 38% level.
- P3Strong Revenue Growth Industry Leader
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth falls below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Material Upside To Analyst Targets
Trip ifPrice rises above $177.90 (the analyst take-profit target), exhausting the defined 27% upside.
- P5Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice crosses above the 200-day moving average and sustains above it for 20 consecutive trading days, resolving the downtrend.