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Moody's Corporation (MCO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)VALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges

Sell if holding. At $460.67, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 4.5%.

In a world shaped by increasingly interconnected risks, Moody's data, insights, and innovative technologies help customers develop a holistic view of their world and unlock opportunities. Moody's offerings are distinguished by our vast proprietary and curated data and validated... Read more

$460.67+4.5% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#8 of 11 Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
Stop $437.15Target $481.50(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$535.00+16.1%20 analysts
$481.50our TP
$460.67price
$535.00mean
$610

Sell if holding. At $460.67, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 4.5%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.5%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.0
P/E (Fwd)24.8
Mkt Cap$80.4B
EV/EBITDA22.7
Profit Mgn31.7%
ROE71.4%
Rev Growth8.1%
Beta1.45
Dividend0.90%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.79neutral
IV42%normal
Max Pain$380-17.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
3.3
Pe
3.9
Peg Ratio
4.4
Analyst Target
5.0
Forward Pe
5.1
Forward P/E: 24.8xPEG: 2.09
GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $424.40Resistance $482.54

Price Targets

$437
$482
A.Upside+4.5%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $460.67, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 4.5%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Prior stop was $437.15. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the MCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $481.50 (+4.5% upside). Prior stop was $437.15. Stop-loss: $437.15.

What are the risks of investing in MCO?

Thin upside margin: 4.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Expensive valuation.

Is MCO overvalued or undervalued?

Moody's Corporation trades at a P/E of 33.0 (forward 24.8). TrendMatrix value score: 3.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MCO?

30 analysts cover MCO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $535.

What does Moody's Corporation do?In a world shaped by increasingly interconnected risks, Moody's data, insights, and innovative technologies help...

In a world shaped by increasingly interconnected risks, Moody's data, insights, and innovative technologies help customers develop a holistic view of their world and unlock opportunities. Moody's offerings are distinguished by our vast proprietary and curated data and validated analytical models, which provide the trusted foundation that enable our customers to navigate an increasingly complex risk landscape.

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