Moody's is a genuinely high-quality franchise — operating margins of 32%, ROE of 71%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 — and has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging about 5% above consensus; the stock nonetheless sits in a confirmed downtrend with the moving average declining 1.9% per month, leverage at a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.4 introduces meaningful balance-sheet risk, and the risk/reward of 1.24-to-1 does not yet reach the asymmetry threshold despite 6.2% upside to the analyst consensus target.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Franchise Margins→Stable
- Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Confirmed Downtrend Technical Pressure↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026· older than 90 days
Moody's Corporation (MCO) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $503.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.
In a world shaped by increasingly interconnected risks, Moody's data, insights, and innovative technologies help customers develop a holistic view of their world and unlock opportunities. Moody's offerings are distinguished by our vast proprietary and curated data and validated... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $503.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 105d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Moody's Corporation
About Moody's Corporation
Moody's Corporation generated revenue across two segments in fiscal 2025 — Moody's Investors Service (MIS) and Moody's Analytics (MA) — employing approximately 16,000 people across more than 40 countries and maintaining a presence in major global debt and risk-intelligence markets. MIS has operated as a credit rating agency for over 115 years, while MA offers curated data, research, and cloud-based workflow tools to banks, insurers, corporations, and governments navigating regulatory compliance and risk management demands.
MIS earns revenue primarily through rating fees paid by debt issuers, making a substantial portion of MIS revenue dependent on the volume and number of ratable debt securities issued in global capital markets. Annual fee arrangements with frequent issuers, debt monitoring fees, and commercial paper program ratings partially offset this dependence on new-issuance volumes. MA generates subscription-based revenue through three product lines: Research and Insights (fixed income and economic research), Data and Information (the world's largest commercial-entity database by Moody's description), and Decision Solutions (cloud-based applications for banking, insurance, and KYC workflows). MA's customer base includes banks and financial services providers who are subject to regulatory oversight and contractually pass through regulatory requirements to key data and analytics suppliers such as MA, creating sticky demand. MIS competes with S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings, while MA competes with diversified providers of financial data, economic research, and enterprise risk software.
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Moody's regulatory posture is a material operational dimension: MIS is registered with the SEC as a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization and is subject to SEC oversight and examination authority; MIS EU subsidiaries are registered with and supervised by ESMA under the pan-EU CRA regulatory framework; and MIS U.K. is regulated by the FCA. The EU Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA), effective for EU financial institutions, imposes third-party ICT risk management requirements on MA as a data provider, and the EU AI Act — published July 2024 with phased implementation — could increase compliance costs depending on how the European Commission's proposed burden-reduction measures are finalized. The EU Regulation on ESG Rating Activities becomes applicable in July 2026, and certain MIS products may fall within its scope, adding a dated regulatory milestone that could require procedural and substantive changes to affected product lines.
See also: Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
From Moody's Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 24, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 21, 2026Recent Developments — Moody's Corporation
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Oct 15, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: ](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1059556/000105955626000041/mco-20260811.htm#ic3e222882adf47b7a49a545beeed2f53_3613) | [DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS](https://www.sec.gov/A...
Latest news
- NEWS Moody's: Even Its Exceptional Quality Doesn't Justify 30× P/E (NYSE:MCO) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Oct 21, 2026 negative
- NEWS What Moody's (MCO) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS MCO Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates as Costs Rise & MIS Revenues Fall - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail Oct 21, 2026 negative
- NEWS Moody's (MCO) Shares Dip After Q3 Miss, Despite Maintaining 2026 EPS Guidance - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 21, 2026 negative
- NEWS Moody's (NYSE:MCO) misses Q3 2026 revenue estimates - StockStory — StockStory Oct 21, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 21, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:59:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-10-15Item 5.02MEDIUM](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1059556/000105955626000041/mco-20260811.htm#ic3e222882adf47b7a49a545beeed2f53_3613) | [DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS](https://www.sec.gov/A...SEC filing →
- 2026-08-12Item 5.02MEDIUM](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1059556/000105955626000038/mco-20260811.htm#id4a3645af59f4249ba975b58ad0e1b8d_14044) | [DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS](https://www.sec.gov/...SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $503.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $474.65. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $497.23 reached (−1.3% from $503.69); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $474.65. Stop-loss: $474.65.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Expensive valuation.
Moody's Corporation trades at a P/E of 30.9 (forward 27.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
30 analysts rate MCO, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 21 analysts publish price targets averaging $552.
What does Moody's Corporation do?In a world shaped by increasingly interconnected risks, Moody's data, insights, and innovative technologies help...
In a world shaped by increasingly interconnected risks, Moody's data, insights, and innovative technologies help customers develop a holistic view of their world and unlock opportunities. Moody's offerings are distinguished by our vast proprietary and curated data and validated analytical models, which provide the trusted foundation that enable our customers to navigate an increasingly complex risk landscape.