Skip to main content

Moody's Corporation (MCO) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $428.90 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Negative momentum.

In a world shaped by increasingly interconnected risks, Moody's data, insights, and innovative technologies help customers develop a holistic view of their world and unlock opportunities. Moody's offerings are distinguished by our vast proprietary and curated data and validated... Read more

$428.90+12.6% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#9 of 11 Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.02%
IncomeYield0.96%(5y avg 0.80%)Payout27.62%sustainable
Stop $413.42Target $482.85(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$536.50+25.1%20 analysts
$482.85our TP
$428.90price
$536.50mean
$610

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $428.90 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 66d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Moody's Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.1 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.8
P/E (Fwd)23.1
Mkt Cap$74.9B
EV/EBITDA21.2
Profit Mgn31.7%
ROE71.4%
Rev Growth8.1%
Beta1.37
Dividend0.96%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Volume
4.3
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 66d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $426.21Resistance $481.39

Price Targets

$413
$483
A.Upside+12.6%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (66d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $428.90 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $413.42. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $482.85 (+12.6% upside). Prior stop was $413.42. Stop-loss: $413.42.

What are the risks of investing in MCO?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is MCO overvalued or undervalued?

Moody's Corporation trades at a P/E of 30.8 (forward 23.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MCO?

30 analysts cover MCO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $537.

What does Moody's Corporation do?In a world shaped by increasingly interconnected risks, Moody's data, insights, and innovative technologies help...

In a world shaped by increasingly interconnected risks, Moody's data, insights, and innovative technologies help customers develop a holistic view of their world and unlock opportunities. Moody's offerings are distinguished by our vast proprietary and curated data and validated analytical models, which provide the trusted foundation that enable our customers to navigate an increasingly complex risk landscape.

Related stocks: MSCI (MSCI Inc.) · ICE (Intercontinental Exchange Inc.) · TRU (TransUnion) · NDAQ (Nasdaq, Inc.) · SPGI (S&P Global Inc.)