Hasbro has beaten earnings estimates in each of the four most recent quarters at an average positive surprise of roughly 40%, holds 19.7% upside to the analyst consensus target with a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 4.5-to-1, and generates positive free cash flow despite a GAAP net loss — though high leverage of 5.7 times equity and a dividend that may not be supported by current cash flows represent the key structural risks to the thesis.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Fcf Positive Despite Gaap Loss↑Improving
- Material Upside To Analyst Target↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Hasbro, Inc. (HAS) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
Sell if holding. At $88.55, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.8): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 6.7%.
Hasbro makes and licenses games, toys, and IP including Magic: The Gathering, Monopoly, Dungeons & Dragons, Nerf, and Peppa Pig, sold globally through retail and ecommerce channels. Revenue comes from product sales, digital gaming, and consumer licensing; in 2025 the top five... Read more
Sell if holding. At $88.55, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.8): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 6.7%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 87d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-27Recent Developments — Hasbro, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Amazon Stock Has Stumbled in 2026. Prime Day Could Change the Story. - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Hasbro Is So Much More Than Just A Toy Company (NASDAQ:HAS) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Has the Stock Market Gotten Any Less Concentrated? - Morningstar — Morningstar neutral
- NEWS Hasbro Gears Up for Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Hasbro Gears Up for Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock? - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-07-27T12:57:47Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop five customers35%10-K Item 1: 'net revenues from our top five customers accounted for approximately 35% of our consolidated global net revenues'
- LOWCustomerAmazon.com11%10-K Item 1: 'Amazon.com, Inc. and Wal-Mart, Inc. together represented 20% of consolidated global net revenues, with each accounting for 11% and 9%, respectively'
- LOWCustomerWal-Mart9.0%10-K Item 1: 'Amazon.com, Inc. and Wal-Mart, Inc. together represented 20% of consolidated global net revenues, with each accounting for 11% and 9%, respectively'
- MEDIUMGeographicChina manufacturers10-K Item 1A: 'a substantial but decreasing number of which are in China'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $88.55, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.8): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 6.7%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $83.27. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $94.76 (+6.7% upside). Prior stop was $83.27. Stop-loss: $83.27.
Thin upside margin: 6.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.8): -1.5; Euphoria warning: extreme positivity (+1.00) + overbought RSI 75.
Hasbro, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.8 (forward 13.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover HAS with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $109.
What does Hasbro, Inc. do?Hasbro makes and licenses games, toys, and IP including Magic: The Gathering, Monopoly, Dungeons & Dragons, Nerf, and...
Hasbro makes and licenses games, toys, and IP including Magic: The Gathering, Monopoly, Dungeons & Dragons, Nerf, and Peppa Pig, sold globally through retail and ecommerce channels. Revenue comes from product sales, digital gaming, and consumer licensing; in 2025 the top five customers accounted for approximately 35% of consolidated global net revenues.