Value
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.8 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.69
HAS · Why this verdict
Why Hasbro (HAS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hasbro has beaten earnings estimates in each of the four most recent quarters at an average positive surprise of roughly 40%, holds 19.7% upside to the analyst consensus target with a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 4.5-to-1, and generates positive free cash flow despite a GAAP net loss — though high leverage of 5.7 times equity and a dividend that may not be supported by current cash flows represent the key structural risks to the thesis.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the four most recent quarters with an average positive surprise of roughly 40% — ranging from about 3% to nearly 69% above consensus — a streak that suggests a consistent pattern of under-promising and over-delivering across multiple reporting periods. Earnings | Average EPS surprise remains above 10% over the next 4 reported quarters, sustaining the beat pattern. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAverage positive surprises of 40% are unusually large and may reflect a period of artificially depressed consensus expectations rather than structural outperformance; as estimates reset higher, the magnitude will likely compress, and a first miss could be disproportionately punished given current price levels. | ||
Despite reporting a GAAP net loss, the business generates an 11% free cash flow margin and a 4.6% FCF yield — indicating that the cash economics of the business are meaningfully better than the headline income statement suggests. Quality breakdown | FCF margin remains above 8% and FCF yield stays above 3% over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFCF generation relies on non-cash adjustments offsetting the underlying GAAP loss; if working capital dynamics, amortization schedules, or restructuring timing normalize, the gap between the reported loss and positive FCF could compress, narrowing the margin of safety. | ||
With the stock currently about 19.7% below the analyst consensus price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 4.5-to-1, the setup offers substantial upside room relative to the risk being taken at the current entry. Price targets | Price approaches the analyst consensus target of approximately $102 within 12 months as the roughly 20% gap closes. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock screens poorly relative to peers on both value and quality metrics, and analyst targets on consumer brands carrying high leverage can be revised down quickly on any sign of earnings deceleration — the analyst upside of 33% may prove optimistic if leverage costs increase or the beat streak breaks. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 5.7 and a dividend characterized as potentially unsupported by free cash flow represent the most significant structural vulnerabilities; should the earnings momentum reverse, the combination of leverage and dividend pressure could weigh on the stock disproportionately. Bear case | Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 4x over the next 12 months as free cash flow is directed toward deleveraging. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe same leverage that amplifies downside also amplifies equity returns if the beat streak continues; a business generating a 4.6% FCF yield while reducing debt can normalize its balance sheet faster than consensus estimates may expect. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the four most recent quarters with an average positive surprise of roughly 40% — ranging from about 3% to nearly 69% above consensus — a streak that suggests a consistent pattern of under-promising and over-delivering across multiple reporting periods.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Average EPS surprise remains above 10% over the next 4 reported quarters, sustaining the beat pattern.
CounterAverage positive surprises of 40% are unusually large and may reflect a period of artificially depressed consensus expectations rather than structural outperformance; as estimates reset higher, the magnitude will likely compress, and a first miss could be disproportionately punished given current price levels.
Despite reporting a GAAP net loss, the business generates an 11% free cash flow margin and a 4.6% FCF yield — indicating that the cash economics of the business are meaningfully better than the headline income statement suggests.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin remains above 8% and FCF yield stays above 3% over the next 12 months.
CounterFCF generation relies on non-cash adjustments offsetting the underlying GAAP loss; if working capital dynamics, amortization schedules, or restructuring timing normalize, the gap between the reported loss and positive FCF could compress, narrowing the margin of safety.
With the stock currently about 19.7% below the analyst consensus price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 4.5-to-1, the setup offers substantial upside room relative to the risk being taken at the current entry.
Tripped↓DeterioratingPrice targets
- Expectation
- Price approaches the analyst consensus target of approximately $102 within 12 months as the roughly 20% gap closes.
CounterThe stock screens poorly relative to peers on both value and quality metrics, and analyst targets on consumer brands carrying high leverage can be revised down quickly on any sign of earnings deceleration — the analyst upside of 33% may prove optimistic if leverage costs increase or the beat streak breaks.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 5.7 and a dividend characterized as potentially unsupported by free cash flow represent the most significant structural vulnerabilities; should the earnings momentum reverse, the combination of leverage and dividend pressure could weigh on the stock disproportionately.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 4x over the next 12 months as free cash flow is directed toward deleveraging.
CounterThe same leverage that amplifies downside also amplifies equity returns if the beat streak continues; a business generating a 4.6% FCF yield while reducing debt can normalize its balance sheet faster than consensus estimates may expect.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 8.7 |
| Gross margin | 8.8 |
| Op margin | 8.9 |
| Net margin | 8.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 6.5 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 160%
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
6.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.6 |
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 8.5 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.61 (n=10)
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 8.7 |
| growth rank | 7.9 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.8 |
| support resistance | 2.4 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 4.7 |
| implied vol | 6.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 0.2 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $60
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 3.2%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.40
Upside
+6.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.40 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.1, Sentiment at 8.1, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.4, and Peer rank at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.40 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Material Upside To Analyst TargetTripped
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is revised below $89, bringing upside to within 5% of the current price and eliminating the material gap.
- P3Fcf Positive Despite Gaap Loss
Trip ifFCF margin falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Leverage And Dividend Sustainability
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 3x for 2 consecutive quarters, substantially reducing the leverage risk.