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GSGoldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)Sell5.6·$1021.00+0.14%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Goldman Sachs has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 13% above consensus — providing a near-term event catalyst with earnings 28 days away — but the stock has reached its price target, the risk/reward is exhausted, and structural leverage makes the setup unattractive for new capital at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Strong Margin ProfileStable
  • Near Term Earnings CatalystStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) (GS) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1021.00 — A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.8): -1.5.

Goldman Sachs operates three segments — Global Banking & Markets (investment banking, FICC, equities), Asset & Wealth Management, and Platform Solutions — serving corporations, financial institutions, governments, and individuals worldwide. Revenue comes from advisory and... Read more

$1021.00+8.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#29 of 50 Capital Markets
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.76%(5y avg 2.20%)Payout28.31%sustainable
Stop $970.04Target $1102.50(resistance)A.R:R -2.3:1
Analyst target$978.35-4.2%20 analysts
$1102.50our TP
$1021.00price
$978.35mean
$730
$1195

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1021.00 — A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.8): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)

About Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)

Goldman Sachs operates through three segments — Global Banking & Markets, Asset & Wealth Management, and Platform Solutions — serving corporations, financial institutions, governments, and individuals globally. GS Bank USA, a New York State-chartered bank, holds U.S. deposit-taking functions, and the Federal Reserve System regulates the holding company as both a bank holding company and a financial holding company. In December 2025, the firm entered an agreement to transfer its Apple Card program to another issuer, expected to complete in roughly 24 months.

Global Banking & Markets generates revenue from investment banking advisory and underwriting, FICC intermediation across interest rate products, credit products, mortgages, currencies, and commodities, FICC financing through structured lending and repo, and equities intermediation and prime financing for institutional clients. Asset & Wealth Management earns predominantly asset-based management fees from institutional and high-net-worth clients — including ultra-high-net-worth families through the private bank — plus incentive fees, private banking net interest income, and returns on principal investments in corporate equity, credit, real estate, and infrastructure. Platform Solutions generated revenue almost entirely from the Apple Card credit card and deposit-raising activities; the company sold its General Motors credit card program to another issuer in 2025, and the Apple Card transition agreement signed in December 2025 subjects remaining Platform Solutions revenue to an ongoing wind-down over approximately 24 months.

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Goldman Sachs operates under simultaneous oversight from the FRB (holding company capital and Business Continuity & Technology Resilience Program), the OCC and New York State banking authorities (GS Bank USA), and FINRA (broker-dealer subsidiaries). The 10-K explicitly flags that Group Inc.'s proposed resolution strategy could result in greater losses for security holders than a simple liquidation scenario. Additionally, the filing notes that escalating U.S.-China tensions and broad tariffs — such as those announced in April 2025 — could adversely affect market activity levels, particularly in cross-border underwriting and intermediation.

See also: Financial Services · Capital Markets

From Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 14, 202611d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 6.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.7
P/E (Fwd)15.4
Mkt Cap$301.2B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn29.4%
ROE14.5%
Rev Growth14.5%
Beta1.29
Dividend1.76%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.96neutral
IV49%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-13Item 5.02LOW
    Lakshmi Mittal, a member of the Board of Directors, departed from the Goldman Sachs Board effective March 9, 2026. No successor named in the filing. No reason cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.3
Value Rank
4.0
Quality Rank
6.2
Best-in-class margins
GatesMomentum 4.5<4.5A.R:R -2.3=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $1000.04Resistance $1125.00

Price Targets

$970
$1103
A.Upside+8.0%
A.R:R-2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.8% upside)
! momentum at 4.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-14 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1021.00 — A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.8): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $970.04. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1102.50 (+8.0% upside). Prior stop was $970.04. Stop-loss: $970.04.

What are the risks of investing in GS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 6.8): -1.5.

Is GS overvalued or undervalued?

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) trades at a P/E of 18.7 (forward 15.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GS?

32 analysts cover GS with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $978.

What does Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) do?Goldman Sachs operates three segments — Global Banking & Markets (investment banking, FICC, equities), Asset & Wealth...

Goldman Sachs operates three segments — Global Banking & Markets (investment banking, FICC, equities), Asset & Wealth Management, and Platform Solutions — serving corporations, financial institutions, governments, and individuals worldwide. Revenue comes from advisory and underwriting fees, market-making spreads, asset management fees, and net interest income; Platform Solutions, which generates revenue almost entirely from Apple Card activities, is being transitioned to another issuer over approximately 24 months.

Related stocks: SCHW (Charles Schwab Corporation (The) · MS (Morgan Stanley) · IBKR (Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.) · HOOD (Robinhood Markets, Inc.)
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