Value
5.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.9 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.58
GS · Why this verdict
Why Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) (GS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The firm has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 13%, establishing a consistent track record of outperformance that anchors near-term sentiment. Earnings | The beat streak extends to at least 5 consecutive quarters with EPS surprise staying above 5% in each. | →Stable |
| CounterBeat streaks in capital markets businesses are often a function of elevated trading activity or favorable deal flow that is inherently cyclical; a shift in market conditions or rising credit losses could rapidly end the cadence. | ||
Net margins of 29% are meaningfully above typical peers in the financial services sector, reflecting a high-revenue-quality mix that sustains earnings power across a range of market environments. Quality breakdown | Net margin remains above 20% and the overall quality score stays above 6 out of 10 for the next two reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski financial health score sits well below the level associated with high-quality franchises, signaling balance sheet and cash flow dynamics that do not align with the margin surface and suggest hidden quality risk beneath the headline profitability figures. | ||
With four straight beats intact and earnings reporting in 28 days, the setup carries a near-term event catalyst that could extend the positive surprise cadence and re-rate the stock if execution continues. Edge rationale | The next earnings event produces a positive EPS surprise greater than 5%, extending the beat streak to five consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAfter four consecutive beats, analyst estimates have likely been revised upward to reflect the firm's outperformance pattern, raising the bar for a fifth beat and increasing the risk that an in-line result disappoints relative to elevated buy-side expectations. | ||
The stock has reached its price target, leaving essentially no upside to the resistance level and producing a risk/reward at the floor — a condition where accepting new risk is unlikely to generate commensurate reward. Price targets | This concern resolves if the price target is raised such that upside exceeds 10% from the prevailing price. | →Stable |
| CounterA business approaching its near-term target with an active beat streak and an earnings catalyst 28 days out can quickly re-price if results drive a positive revision cycle, making the exhausted asymmetry a temporary rather than structural constraint. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 6.8 imposes a leverage penalty that constrains financial flexibility and amplifies losses if revenues soften, making the investment profile less suitable for risk-averse allocators. Bear case | This concern resolves if net debt-to-equity falls below 5.0 over 2 consecutive annual reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh leverage is a structural feature of large capital markets businesses and is not inherently a credit concern when asset quality and revenue generation are strong; the business model is designed to operate at this leverage level and is managed with robust internal risk frameworks. | ||
The firm has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 13%, establishing a consistent track record of outperformance that anchors near-term sentiment.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to at least 5 consecutive quarters with EPS surprise staying above 5% in each.
CounterBeat streaks in capital markets businesses are often a function of elevated trading activity or favorable deal flow that is inherently cyclical; a shift in market conditions or rising credit losses could rapidly end the cadence.
Net margins of 29% are meaningfully above typical peers in the financial services sector, reflecting a high-revenue-quality mix that sustains earnings power across a range of market environments.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin remains above 20% and the overall quality score stays above 6 out of 10 for the next two reporting periods.
CounterThe Piotroski financial health score sits well below the level associated with high-quality franchises, signaling balance sheet and cash flow dynamics that do not align with the margin surface and suggest hidden quality risk beneath the headline profitability figures.
With four straight beats intact and earnings reporting in 28 days, the setup carries a near-term event catalyst that could extend the positive surprise cadence and re-rate the stock if execution continues.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- The next earnings event produces a positive EPS surprise greater than 5%, extending the beat streak to five consecutive quarters.
CounterAfter four consecutive beats, analyst estimates have likely been revised upward to reflect the firm's outperformance pattern, raising the bar for a fifth beat and increasing the risk that an in-line result disappoints relative to elevated buy-side expectations.
The stock has reached its price target, leaving essentially no upside to the resistance level and producing a risk/reward at the floor — a condition where accepting new risk is unlikely to generate commensurate reward.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- This concern resolves if the price target is raised such that upside exceeds 10% from the prevailing price.
CounterA business approaching its near-term target with an active beat streak and an earnings catalyst 28 days out can quickly re-price if results drive a positive revision cycle, making the exhausted asymmetry a temporary rather than structural constraint.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 6.8 imposes a leverage penalty that constrains financial flexibility and amplifies losses if revenues soften, making the investment profile less suitable for risk-averse allocators.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- This concern resolves if net debt-to-equity falls below 5.0 over 2 consecutive annual reporting periods.
CounterHigh leverage is a structural feature of large capital markets businesses and is not inherently a credit concern when asset quality and revenue generation are strong; the business model is designed to operate at this leverage level and is managed with robust internal risk frameworks.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Goldman Sachs has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 13% above consensus — providing a near-term event catalyst with earnings 28 days away — but the stock has reached its price target, the risk/reward is exhausted, and structural leverage makes the setup unattractive for new capital at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.8 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
Growth
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
| EPS growth | 6.8 |
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.3 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.4 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $22,181,114 (0.007% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.0 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 8.3 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 4.9 |
| put call | 6.9 |
| implied vol | 5.2 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
- ▸Dividend: 176.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.26
Upside
-13.8%
Downside
6.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 11d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-2.3=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -2.26 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.2, Catalyst at 7.0, and Quality at 6.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.4, Momentum at 4.5, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Margin Profile
Trip ifNet margin compresses below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Near Term Earnings Catalyst
Trip ifNext earnings result produces an EPS surprise below 0%.
- P4Price At Target No Asymmetry
Trip ifUpside to price target recovers above 10% from the prevailing market price.
- P5Elevated Leverage Structural Constraint
Trip ifNet debt-to-equity falls below 5.0 for 2 consecutive annual reporting periods.