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MSMorgan StanleySell6.7·$216.27-0.97%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Morgan Stanley has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats averaging 16.7% positive surprise and earns strong margins of 25%, but trades above analyst targets with a negative asymmetry ratio and an earnings report due in 29 days that could serve as a catalyst in either direction.

Thesis pillars

  • Leverage Near 52 Week HighImproving
  • Earnings Beat Streak CatalystStable
  • High Quality MarginsStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Morgan Stanley (MS) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $216.27 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5.

Morgan Stanley is a global financial services firm serving corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals through three segments: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management. The firm operates globally from New York headquarters and... Read more

$216.27-2.0% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#9 of 50 Capital Markets
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.12%(5y avg 2.98%)Payout32.31%sustainable
Stop $206.70Target $249.96(default +15%)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$236.62+9.4%21 analysts
$249.96our TP
$216.27price
$236.62mean
$184
$262

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $216.27 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 59d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-16
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 14, 202659d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.5
P/E (Fwd)15.9
Mkt Cap$341.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn25.9%
ROE18.0%
Rev Growth28.0%
Beta1.21
Dividend2.12%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.40bullish
IV41%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 59d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $201.83Resistance $222.00

Price Targets

$207
$250
A.Upside-2.0%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-14 (59d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $216.27 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $206.70. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $249.96 (-2.0% upside). Prior stop was $206.70. Stop-loss: $206.70.

What are the risks of investing in MS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5.

Is MS overvalued or undervalued?

Morgan Stanley trades at a P/E of 17.5 (forward 15.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MS?

33 analysts cover MS with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $237.

What does Morgan Stanley do?Morgan Stanley is a global financial services firm serving corporations, governments, financial institutions, and...

Morgan Stanley is a global financial services firm serving corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals through three segments: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management. The firm operates globally from New York headquarters and offices in London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, and Hong Kong, regulated by the Federal Reserve as a financial holding company.

Related stocks: HOOD (Robinhood Markets, Inc.) · SCHW (Charles Schwab Corporation (The) · GS (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)) · IBKR (Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.)
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