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Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $72.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Concentration risk — Supplier: Virtu.

Robinhood is a commission-free financial services platform offering equities, options, crypto, futures, and banking products to retail customers. It earns payment for order flow (PFOF) from market makers, transaction rebates on crypto trades, and net interest income. Revenue is... Read more

$72.19+23.3% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#34 of 40 Capital Markets
Stop $67.24Target $89.16(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$99.06+37.2%24 analysts
$89.16our TP
$72.19price
$99.06mean
$52
$155

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $72.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Concentration risk — Supplier: Virtu. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Analyst upside: 23%
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Virtu
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)34.6
P/E (Fwd)27.0
Mkt Cap$64.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn41.1%
ROE21.5%
Rev Growth15.1%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.33bearish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$25-65.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierVirtu
    10-K Item 1A: 'currently brokerage trades executed overnight primarily are routed through one Liquidity Provider - Virtu.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Board appointed Shiv Verma as CFO effective Feb 6, 2026. Named successor to prior Principal Financial Officer; no disagreement with Company cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-24Item 5.02LOW
    Amendment (8-K/A) disclosed compensation terms for CFO Shiv Verma: $600,000 base salary, 75% annual bonus target, and approximately $18M RSU promotion grant vesting over four years, effective Feb 6, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.3
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.3
Growth Rank
3.7
Quality Rank
8.2
Best-in-class margins
GatesMomentum 1.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $65.57Resistance $93.32

Price Targets

$67
$89
A.Upside+23.5%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HOOD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $72.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Concentration risk — Supplier: Virtu. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $67.24. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HOOD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $89.16 (+23.3% upside). Prior stop was $67.24. Stop-loss: $67.24.

What are the risks of investing in HOOD?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Virtu; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is HOOD overvalued or undervalued?

Robinhood Markets, Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.6 (forward 27.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HOOD?

33 analysts cover HOOD with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $99.

What does Robinhood Markets, Inc. do?Robinhood is a commission-free financial services platform offering equities, options, crypto, futures, and banking...

Robinhood is a commission-free financial services platform offering equities, options, crypto, futures, and banking products to retail customers. It earns payment for order flow (PFOF) from market makers, transaction rebates on crypto trades, and net interest income. Revenue is heavily dependent on trading volumes and interest rate levels.

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