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Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $74.29, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Virtu; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Robinhood Markets operates commission-free brokerage and crypto trading platforms in the U.S., U.K., and EU, generating revenue primarily from payment for order flow, transaction rebates, net interest, and subscription fees. The company serves retail investors and had first... Read more

$74.29+19.5% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#32 of 40 Capital Markets
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
Stop $68.97Target $88.59(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$98.44+32.5%24 analysts
$88.59our TP
$74.29price
$98.44mean
$52
$155

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $74.29, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Virtu; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Robinhood Markets, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • May 8, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Jeffrey Pinner, Chief Technology Officer, separating effective May 7, 2026. No reason cited; no successor named. Will receive severance benefits under company's Change in Control and Severance Plan.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.5 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Virtu
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)37.5
P/E (Fwd)28.5
Mkt Cap$69.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn41.1%
ROE21.5%
Rev Growth15.1%
Beta2.29
DividendNone
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.14bearish
IV68%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyVirtu
    10-K Item 1A: 'brokerage trades executed overnight primarily are routed through one Liquidity Provider - Virtu. If Virtu becomes unwilling or unable to do business with us in the future, we may be unable to find additional Liquidity Providers to support Robinhood 24 Hour Market'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Jeffrey Pinner, Chief Technology Officer, separating effective May 7, 2026. No reason cited; no successor named. Will receive severance benefits under company's Change in Control and Severance Plan.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Board appointed Shiv Verma as Chief Financial Officer effective close of business February 6, 2026, succeeding the prior CFO. Clean handoff with named successor.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.3
Growth Rank
3.5
Quality Rank
7.9
Best-in-class margins

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.8
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $69.93Resistance $90.14

Price Targets

$69
$89
A.Upside+19.2%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HOOD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $74.29, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Virtu; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $88.59 (+19.2%), stop $68.97 (−7.7%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HOOD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $88.59 (+19.5% upside). Target $88.59 (+19.2%), stop $68.97 (−7.7%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Stop-loss: $68.97.

What are the risks of investing in HOOD?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Virtu; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Negative momentum.

Is HOOD overvalued or undervalued?

Robinhood Markets, Inc. trades at a P/E of 37.5 (forward 28.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HOOD?

34 analysts cover HOOD with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $98.

What does Robinhood Markets, Inc. do?Robinhood Markets operates commission-free brokerage and crypto trading platforms in the U.S., U.K., and EU, generating...

Robinhood Markets operates commission-free brokerage and crypto trading platforms in the U.S., U.K., and EU, generating revenue primarily from payment for order flow, transaction rebates, net interest, and subscription fees. The company serves retail investors and had first full-year GAAP net income in 2024. Overnight brokerage trades through Robinhood 24 Hour Market are primarily routed through a single liquidity provider, Virtu.

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