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GMEGameStop CorporationBuy Wait6.1·$21.20-0.70%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with an average upside surprise of 123% demonstrates disciplined execution against expectations, but negative free cash flow, elevated short interest, a put/call ratio above 1.3, and zero upside to the technical target create a setup where fundamental progress and tactical conditions are pointing in opposite directions.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Negative Free Cash Flow Quality RiskStable
  • Momentum And Technical DeteriorationDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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GameStop Corporation (GME) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Wait for pullback to $20.70. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $21.20. Engine's entry $20.70 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: Nintendo, Sony, and Pokemon; Negative momentum.

GameStop retails games, collectibles, and entertainment products through 2,206 stores (1,598 in the U.S., 308 in Europe, 300 in Australia) and ecommerce platforms, generating roughly 30% of annual sales in Q4 fiscal 2025. Revenue comes from hardware, software, and collectibles... Read more

$21.20+9.5% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#5 of 23 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-13.28%
Entry $20.70(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $19.73Target $22.65(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Wait for pullback to $20.70. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $21.20. Engine's entry $20.70 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: Nintendo, Sony, and Pokemon; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About GameStop Corporation

About GameStop Corporation

GameStop operated 2,206 stores at January 31, 2026 — 1,598 in the United States, 308 in Europe (France), and 300 in Australia — after closing 727 domestic stores in fiscal 2025 and exiting Canada, Ireland, Switzerland, Austria, Germany, New Zealand, and Italy in recent years. The three largest vendors, Nintendo, Sony, and Pokémon, collectively supplied a majority of new product purchases in fiscal 2025. Fourth-quarter sales represented approximately 30% of annual revenue in fiscal 2025, down from 34% in fiscal 2024.

GameStop earns revenue across three product categories — hardware and accessories (consoles, controllers, headsets), software (new and pre-owned games, digital downloads), and collectibles (trading cards, apparel, toys, gadgets) — through retail stores and ecommerce platforms operating under the GameStop, EB Games, and Micromania brand names. The trade-in program purchases pre-owned gaming hardware and collectibles from customers in exchange for cash or store credit, then refurbishes and resells the inventory through centers in the United States, Australia, and Europe. Beyond traditional retail, GameStop has adopted a capital allocation strategy — the Board's Investment Committee is authorized to deploy cash into equity securities, fixed income, derivatives, and certain cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin. The company is also evaluating a potential sale of its France operations to a strategic buyer. GameStop competes against Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Amazon.com, Sony's PlayStation Network, Microsoft's Xbox Live, and Nintendo's digital storefront in the U.S.

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Vendor concentration and the platform shift to digital distribution are the most material structural risks. Nintendo, Sony, and Pokémon collectively supply a majority of new product purchases, and the 10-K separately calls out Pokémon trading cards: a significant portion of collectibles revenue and profit depends on that single franchise's popularity. Concurrently, Sony and Microsoft now offer consoles that operate exclusively with digital games, eliminating the physical software purchase for a growing share of the installed base — a structural channel shift that may reduce demand for physical software independent of broader gaming industry trends.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

From GameStop Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Sep 8, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Nintendo, Sony, and Pokemon
Negative momentum
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.9
P/E (Fwd)15.5
Mkt Cap$9.5B
EV/EBITDA13.3
Profit Mgn20.4%
ROE14.1%
Rev Growth14.1%
Beta1.76
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.68bearish
IV53%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierNintendo, Sony, and Pokemon
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest vendors are Nintendo, Sony, and Pokemon, which collectively accounted for a majority of our new product purchases in fiscal 2025'
  • MEDIUMProductPokemon trading cards
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of revenue and profit in our collectibles product category is generated from the sale of trading cards, including Pokemon trading cards'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.5
Macd
2.4
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $20.94Resistance $23.11

Price Targets

$20
$21
$23
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! momentum at 1.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-08 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GME stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $20.70. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $21.20. Engine's entry $20.70 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: Nintendo, Sony, and Pokemon; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $22.65 (+6.8%), stop $19.73 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GME stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.65 (+9.5% upside). Target $22.65 (+6.8%), stop $19.73 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $19.73.

What are the risks of investing in GME?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Nintendo, Sony, and Pokemon; Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

Is GME overvalued or undervalued?

GameStop Corporation trades at a P/E of 15.9 (forward 15.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about GME?

8 analysts cover GME with a consensus score of 2.0/5.

What does GameStop Corporation do?GameStop retails games, collectibles, and entertainment products through 2,206 stores (1,598 in the U.S., 308 in...

GameStop retails games, collectibles, and entertainment products through 2,206 stores (1,598 in the U.S., 308 in Europe, 300 in Australia) and ecommerce platforms, generating roughly 30% of annual sales in Q4 fiscal 2025. Revenue comes from hardware, software, and collectibles sales plus a trade-in program; Nintendo, Sony, and Pokémon collectively supplied a majority of new product purchases. The company is pivoting toward capital allocation — evaluating acquisitions and deploying cash into securities including Bitcoin.

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