Elevance Health has delivered three consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of roughly 11%, but the business scores below the minimum quality threshold with no identified competitive moat and a 0.72-to-1 unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio, making the current setup unattractive for new capital with only 4.1% headroom remaining to the price target.
Thesis pillars
- Recent Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Quality Below Investment Floor→Stable
- Momentum Weakness Volume Distribution→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $417.89: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Elevance Health is one of the largest U.S. health insurers by medical membership, serving approximately 45.2 million medical members through affiliated health plans as of December 31, 2025, as a Blue Cross Blue Shield licensee in 14 states plus non-BCBS brands. The company... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $417.89: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Elevance Health, Inc.
About Elevance Health, Inc.
Elevance Health served approximately 45.2 million medical members through affiliated health plans as of December 31, 2025, ranking among the largest U.S. health insurers by medical membership. Approximately 32% of total consolidated revenues came from U.S. government agencies in 2025, up from 29% in 2023. The company's Blue Cross and Blue Shield licenses span 14 states including California, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, and New York, and in 2025 Elevance Health expanded into select service areas in Florida, Maryland, and Texas through its Simply Healthcare and Wellpoint brands.
Elevance Health earns revenue through four reportable segments: Health Benefits (risk-based and fee-based plans across commercial, Medicare, and Medicaid markets), CarelonRx (pharmacy services), Carelon Services (integrated physical, behavioral, and social care), and Corporate & Other. Commercial premiums are generally fixed for 12-month periods; Medicare Advantage revenues are based on CMS bids submitted six months before the contract year, with explicit gain and loss margin requirements. CarelonRx delegates certain core pharmacy services — including home delivery, specialty pharmacies, and claims adjudication — to CaremarkPCS Health, L.L.C. (a CVS Health Corporation subsidiary) under an agreement extending through December 31, 2027. The Medicaid business spans 24 states and Washington D.C., covering managed care for low-income populations, dual-eligible members, and specialty programs such as LTSS, CHIP, and behavioral health. Fee-based administrative services — claims processing, provider network access, and medical management — serve employer groups that self-fund benefit plans.
Show full overview
The CMS Star Rating program creates a binary revenue threshold for Elevance Health's Medicare Advantage business: plans rated at 4.0 stars or higher earn quality-based bonus payments, and plans paying minimum MLR rebates for five consecutive years face CMS contract termination. The company's 2026 Star Ratings (released October 2025, effective for 2027 bonus payments) showed approximately 59% of Medicare Advantage members enrolled in plans rated at least 4.0 stars, up from 40% under 2025 Star Ratings. Plans that lose 4.0-star status lose year-round marketing rights, which may impact membership growth depending on future CMS rating changes.
See also: Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
From Elevance Health, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Elevance Health, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS UNH, Humana, CVS Soar, and Wall Street Analysts Take Note — benzinga Jul 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS CNSide Diagnostics Strikes Deal With Elevance Health To Offer CNSide Cerebrospinal Fluid Tumor Cell Enumeration Assay, E — benzinga Jun 25, 2026 positive
- NEWS Elevance Health Invests $640M In Affordable Housing Over The Past Five Years, Building On More Than $1B Invested Over Ne — benzinga Jun 17, 2026 positive
- NEWS Elevance Health expects FY2026 GAAP EPS of at least $19.85 per share; Reaffirms Adj EPS of at least $26.75 per share. — benzinga Jun 10, 2026 positive
- NEWS Mizuho Maintains Outperform on Elevance Health, Raises Price Target to $465 — benzinga Jun 8, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-06T06:00:34Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerU.S. government32%10-K Item 1: 'we generated approximately 32% ... of our total consolidated revenues from agencies of the U.S. government for the years ended December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyCVS (CaremarkPCS Health)10-K Item 1: 'CarelonRx delegates certain core pharmacy services to CaremarkPCS Health, L.L.C., which is a subsidiary of CVS Health Corporation ... extending through December 31, 2027.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $417.89: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $396.15. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $418.65 (+0.2% upside). Prior stop was $396.15. Stop-loss: $396.15.
Target reached (-9.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).
Elevance Health, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.7 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
29 analysts cover ELV with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $419.
What does Elevance Health, Inc. do?Elevance Health is one of the largest U.S. health insurers by medical membership, serving approximately 45.2 million...
Elevance Health is one of the largest U.S. health insurers by medical membership, serving approximately 45.2 million medical members through affiliated health plans as of December 31, 2025, as a Blue Cross Blue Shield licensee in 14 states plus non-BCBS brands. The company generates revenue through risk-based premiums across Individual, Employer Group, Medicare, and Medicaid markets, fee-based administrative services, and pharmacy/health services through its Carelon segment; roughly 32% of 2025 total consolidated revenues came from U.S. government agencies.