Elevance Health has delivered three consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of roughly 11%, but the business scores below the minimum quality threshold with no identified competitive moat and a 0.72-to-1 unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio, making the current setup unattractive for new capital with only 4.1% headroom remaining to the price target.
Thesis pillars
- Recent Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Quality Below Investment Floor→Stable
- Momentum Weakness Volume Distribution↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $377.68: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Elevance Health is one of the largest U.S. health insurers by medical membership, serving approximately 45.2 million medical members through affiliated health plans as of December 31, 2025, as a Blue Cross Blue Shield licensee in 14 states plus non-BCBS brands. The company... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $377.68: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 87d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Elevance Health, Inc.
About Elevance Health, Inc.
Elevance Health served approximately 45.2 million medical members through affiliated health plans as of December 31, 2025, ranking among the largest U.S. health insurers by medical membership. Approximately 32% of total consolidated revenues came from U.S. government agencies in 2025, up from 29% in 2023. The company's Blue Cross and Blue Shield licenses span 14 states including California, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, and New York, and in 2025 Elevance Health expanded into select service areas in Florida, Maryland, and Texas through its Simply Healthcare and Wellpoint brands.
Elevance Health earns revenue through four reportable segments: Health Benefits (risk-based and fee-based plans across commercial, Medicare, and Medicaid markets), CarelonRx (pharmacy services), Carelon Services (integrated physical, behavioral, and social care), and Corporate & Other. Commercial premiums are generally fixed for 12-month periods; Medicare Advantage revenues are based on CMS bids submitted six months before the contract year, with explicit gain and loss margin requirements. CarelonRx delegates certain core pharmacy services — including home delivery, specialty pharmacies, and claims adjudication — to CaremarkPCS Health, L.L.C. (a CVS Health Corporation subsidiary) under an agreement extending through December 31, 2027. The Medicaid business spans 24 states and Washington D.C., covering managed care for low-income populations, dual-eligible members, and specialty programs such as LTSS, CHIP, and behavioral health. Fee-based administrative services — claims processing, provider network access, and medical management — serve employer groups that self-fund benefit plans.
Show full overview
The CMS Star Rating program creates a binary revenue threshold for Elevance Health's Medicare Advantage business: plans rated at 4.0 stars or higher earn quality-based bonus payments, and plans paying minimum MLR rebates for five consecutive years face CMS contract termination. The company's 2026 Star Ratings (released October 2025, effective for 2027 bonus payments) showed approximately 59% of Medicare Advantage members enrolled in plans rated at least 4.0 stars, up from 40% under 2025 Star Ratings. Plans that lose 4.0-star status lose year-round marketing rights, which may impact membership growth depending on future CMS rating changes.
See also: Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
From Elevance Health, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-27Recent Developments — Elevance Health, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Leerink Partners Maintains Market Perform on Elevance Health, Raises Price Target to $395 — benzinga Jul 17, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UnitedHealth Rally Sparks Bullish Case for Healthcare ETFs Despite Medicare Advantage Losses — benzinga Jul 16, 2026 positive
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Sector Perform on Elevance Health, Lowers Price Target to $424 — benzinga Jul 16, 2026 negative
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Elevance Health, Lowers Price Target to $473 — benzinga Jul 16, 2026 positive
- NEWS Medicaid's New Twice-A-Year Eligibility Check Starts In December: How To Keep Your Coverage And Which Stocks Feel It — benzinga Jul 16, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-27T08:02:20Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerU.S. government32%10-K Item 1: 'we generated approximately 32% ... of our total consolidated revenues from agencies of the U.S. government for the years ended December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyCVS (CaremarkPCS Health)10-K Item 1: 'CarelonRx delegates certain core pharmacy services to CaremarkPCS Health, L.L.C., which is a subsidiary of CVS Health Corporation ... extending through December 31, 2027.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $377.68: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $354.42. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $404.19 (+7.0% upside). Prior stop was $354.42. Stop-loss: $354.42.
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).
Elevance Health, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.7 (forward 12.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
29 analysts cover ELV with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $449.
What does Elevance Health, Inc. do?Elevance Health is one of the largest U.S. health insurers by medical membership, serving approximately 45.2 million...
Elevance Health is one of the largest U.S. health insurers by medical membership, serving approximately 45.2 million medical members through affiliated health plans as of December 31, 2025, as a Blue Cross Blue Shield licensee in 14 states plus non-BCBS brands. The company generates revenue through risk-based premiums across Individual, Employer Group, Medicare, and Medicaid markets, fee-based administrative services, and pharmacy/health services through its Carelon segment; roughly 32% of 2025 total consolidated revenues came from U.S. government agencies.