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Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Healthcare Plans

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $373.25: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Elevance Health is one of the largest U.S. health insurers, serving approximately 45.2 million medical members as of December 31, 2025, as a BCBS licensee in 14+ states and under Wellpoint and Carelon brands. Revenue comes from risk-based premiums (Individual, Employer,... Read more

$373.25-0.8% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#9 of 11 Healthcare Plans
Stop $349.93Target $369.31(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$388.95+4.2%21 analysts
$369.31our TP
$373.25price
$388.95mean
$331
$474

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $373.25: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 84. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Recent Analyst Cluster(4) detected in news
Risks
Target reached (-6.0% upside)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.0
P/E (Fwd)12.9
Mkt Cap$81.8B
EV/EBITDA9.0
Profit Mgn2.6%
ROE12.1%
Rev Growth2.6%
Beta0.50
Dividend1.83%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.81neutral
IV43%normal
Max Pain$270-27.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, New York, Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, Georgia, Florida and Texas
    10-K Item 1A: 'The states in which we operate with the largest concentrations of revenues include California, New York, Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, Georgia, Florida and Texas'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-26Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Peter Haytaian will transition from EVP and President of Carelon effective May 4, 2026 to devote more time to family commitments. He will serve as Special Advisor through December 31, 2026 for leadership transition support. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.1

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.2
Support Resistance
0.5
52w Position
6.6

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.8
Value Rank
5.8
Quality Rank
6.8

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
1.2
Net Margin
1.3
Operating Margin
2.1
Roa
2.7
Roe
4.0
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.4
Fcf Quality
6.1
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(4)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
84 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $294.89Resistance $376.85

Price Targets

$350
$369
A.Upside-1.1%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ELV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $373.25: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 84. Prior stop was $349.93. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ELV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $369.31 (-0.8% upside). Prior stop was $349.93. Stop-loss: $349.93.

What are the risks of investing in ELV?

Target reached (-6.0% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is ELV overvalued or undervalued?

Elevance Health, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.0 (forward 12.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ELV?

28 analysts cover ELV with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $389.

What does Elevance Health, Inc. do?Elevance Health is one of the largest U.S. health insurers, serving approximately 45.2 million medical members as of...

Elevance Health is one of the largest U.S. health insurers, serving approximately 45.2 million medical members as of December 31, 2025, as a BCBS licensee in 14+ states and under Wellpoint and Carelon brands. Revenue comes from risk-based premiums (Individual, Employer, Medicaid, Medicare) and administrative fees.

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