Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.2 |
| PEG | 5.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.52
ELV · Why this verdict
Why Elevance Health (ELV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Three of the four most recent quarters produced earnings beats, with an average surprise of approximately 11% and the most recent quarter delivering a 16.4% positive surprise — the strongest in the trailing year — suggesting consistent above-consensus delivery has been the recent pattern. Earnings | Continued above-consensus earnings delivery for two more consecutive quarters, with average quarterly EPS surprise remaining above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe oldest of the four reported quarters was a miss, indicating the beat pattern is not unbroken; a return to under-delivery is plausible if cost pressures or membership trends deteriorate. | ||
The business scores below the minimum quality threshold required for investment consideration, with notes explicitly flagging no competitive moat and below-average return metrics, leaving the franchise without structural insulation against competitive pressure. Quality breakdown | Quality score rising above 4.0 and sustained for at least two consecutive quarters, signaling the quality gap has materially narrowed. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality metrics can recover if margins improve, but absent a verifiable moat, any improvement may be cyclical rather than structural and could reverse quickly under cost or regulatory pressure. | ||
Price momentum is weak, with falling on-balance volume indicating net selling pressure outweighing accumulation — the momentum dimension sits well below its minimum gate despite the stock trading above the 200-day moving average, signaling that buyers have not stepped in at current levels. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume turning positive and momentum recovering above the 4.5 gate for at least two consecutive months, confirming genuine accumulation. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock remains above the 200-day moving average, which historically attracts trend-following buyers; a broader market rally could neutralize the distribution pattern without any company-specific fundamental catalyst. | ||
The reward-to-risk ratio stands at 0.72-to-1 in an unfavorable direction, meaning potential downside materially outweighs the 4.1% remaining headroom to the price target, and the setup fails to meet the minimum asymmetry threshold needed to justify a new position. Engine gate (failed) | Reward-to-risk ratio improving above 1.5-to-1, driven by a pullback in price that widens the gap to the target. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the price declines to create better entry geometry, the quality and momentum deficits flagged elsewhere would still need to resolve for the setup to be genuinely investable on fundamentals. | ||
Three of the four most recent quarters produced earnings beats, with an average surprise of approximately 11% and the most recent quarter delivering a 16.4% positive surprise — the strongest in the trailing year — suggesting consistent above-consensus delivery has been the recent pattern.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Continued above-consensus earnings delivery for two more consecutive quarters, with average quarterly EPS surprise remaining above 5%.
CounterThe oldest of the four reported quarters was a miss, indicating the beat pattern is not unbroken; a return to under-delivery is plausible if cost pressures or membership trends deteriorate.
The business scores below the minimum quality threshold required for investment consideration, with notes explicitly flagging no competitive moat and below-average return metrics, leaving the franchise without structural insulation against competitive pressure.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score rising above 4.0 and sustained for at least two consecutive quarters, signaling the quality gap has materially narrowed.
CounterQuality metrics can recover if margins improve, but absent a verifiable moat, any improvement may be cyclical rather than structural and could reverse quickly under cost or regulatory pressure.
Price momentum is weak, with falling on-balance volume indicating net selling pressure outweighing accumulation — the momentum dimension sits well below its minimum gate despite the stock trading above the 200-day moving average, signaling that buyers have not stepped in at current levels.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume turning positive and momentum recovering above the 4.5 gate for at least two consecutive months, confirming genuine accumulation.
CounterThe stock remains above the 200-day moving average, which historically attracts trend-following buyers; a broader market rally could neutralize the distribution pattern without any company-specific fundamental catalyst.
The reward-to-risk ratio stands at 0.72-to-1 in an unfavorable direction, meaning potential downside materially outweighs the 4.1% remaining headroom to the price target, and the setup fails to meet the minimum asymmetry threshold needed to justify a new position.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Reward-to-risk ratio improving above 1.5-to-1, driven by a pullback in price that widens the gap to the target.
CounterIf the price declines to create better entry geometry, the quality and momentum deficits flagged elsewhere would still need to resolve for the setup to be genuinely investable on fundamentals.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Elevance Health has delivered three consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of roughly 11%, but the business scores below the minimum quality threshold with no identified competitive moat and a 0.72-to-1 unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio, making the current setup unattractive for new capital with only 4.1% headroom remaining to the price target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 1.2 |
| Op margin | 2.1 |
| Net margin | 1.3 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $826,625 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 6.4 |
| growth rank | 2.7 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 5.8 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| beta | 8.9 |
| debt equity | 6.7 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.1 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
- ▸Dividend: 165.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.12
Upside
-9.8%
Downside
8.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 13d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Momentum at 7.3 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8, and Catalyst at 6.6; the weakest are Growth at 1.6, Quality at 3.8, and Technical at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Recent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Quality Below Investment Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 and is sustained for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Momentum Weakness Volume Distribution
Trip ifOn-balance volume turns positive and momentum score rises above 4.5 for 2 consecutive months.
- P4Unfavorable Risk Reward Geometry
Trip ifReward-to-risk ratio improves above 1.5-to-1 at prevailing market price.