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CVS Health Corporation (CVS) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Healthcare Plans

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $83.28: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.08; Below-average business quality.

CVS Health operates four segments—Health Care Benefits (Aetna, 37M+ members), Health Services (PBM, ~87M plan members), Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness (~9,000 retail locations), and Corporate—making it a major integrated U.S. health company. Revenue comes from insurance premiums,... Read more

$83.28+4.4% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#2 of 11 Healthcare Plans
Stop $79.12Target $86.92(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$96.58+16.0%26 analysts
$86.92our TP
$83.28price
$96.58mean
$140

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $83.28: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.08; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)60.4
P/E (Fwd)10.3
Mkt Cap$107.5B
EV/EBITDA12.1
Profit Mgn0.4%
ROE2.3%
Rev Growth8.4%
Beta0.51
Dividend3.17%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.08bearish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$45-46.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. federal government
    10-K Item 1A: 'Programs funded in whole or in part by the U.S. federal government account for a significant portion of our revenues, and any disruption to funding from the U.S. federal government could adversely impact our revenues and operating results'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-19Item 5.02LOW
    CVS Health board elected John E. Gallina, former Elevance Health CFO (retired May 2024), as director effective March 19, 2026. Routine non-executive board appointment; no reason cited beyond qualifications.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
3.2
Quality Rank
4.1
Growth Rank
4.5

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.2
Operating Margin
0.6
Roe
0.8
Roa
1.6
Current Ratio
3.4
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 336% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.5
52w Position
9.8
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $71.47Resistance $83.93

Price Targets

$79
$87
A.Upside+4.4%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CVS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $83.28: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.08; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $79.12. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CVS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $86.92 (+4.4% upside). Prior stop was $79.12. Stop-loss: $79.12.

What are the risks of investing in CVS?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government; Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is CVS overvalued or undervalued?

CVS Health Corporation trades at a P/E of 60.4 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CVS?

33 analysts cover CVS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $97.

What does CVS Health Corporation do?CVS Health operates four segments—Health Care Benefits (Aetna, 37M+ members), Health Services (PBM, ~87M plan members),...

CVS Health operates four segments—Health Care Benefits (Aetna, 37M+ members), Health Services (PBM, ~87M plan members), Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness (~9,000 retail locations), and Corporate—making it a major integrated U.S. health company. Revenue comes from insurance premiums, PBM fees, retail pharmacy dispensing, and specialty pharmacy services.

Related stocks: ELV (Elevance Health, Inc.) · CNC (Centene Corporation) · HUM (Humana Inc.) · CI (The Cigna Group) · UNH (UnitedHealth Group Incorporated)