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Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Healthcare Plans

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.46: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Oscar Health is a technology-enabled health insurer offering ACA marketplace plans in 18-20 US states to approximately 2.0 million effectuated members as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is substantially from health insurance premiums; 93% is collected from CMS via APTC and 7% from... Read more

$24.46+2.2% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#2 of 11 Healthcare Plans
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield22.02%
Stop $22.80Target $25.07(resistance)A.R:R -1.9:1
Analyst target$20.30-17.0%10 analysts
$25.07our TP
$24.46price
$20.30mean
$11
$30

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.46: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and healthcare gov payer hard block. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Oscar Health, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Healthcare gov-payer cliff: 93% of revenue from CMS (APTC premiums) (≥70% threshold). CMS rate-change exposure dominates.
Concentration risk — Customer: CMS (APTC premiums) (93.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)17.8
Mkt Cap$7.4B
EV/EBITDA26.9
Profit Mgn-0.3%
ROE-2.6%
Rev Growth52.6%
Beta2.34
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV84%elevated
Max Pain$5-79.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerCMS (APTC premiums)93%
    10-K Item 1: 'For the year ended December 31, 2025, 93% of premiums were earned directly from CMS and 7% were from our members.'
  • HIGHGeographicFlorida
    10-K Item 1: 'Florida| 1,179,934 ... Total| 2,042,449'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.1
Current Ratio
4.3
Moat
5.8
Operating Margin
6.1
Piotroski F
6.7
Quality concerns
GatesA.R:R -1.9=NEGATIVEHEALTHCARE GOV PAYER HARD BLOCKMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
81 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $15.94Resistance $25.58

Price Targets

$23
$25
A.Upside+2.5%
A.R:R-1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-28.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (3/5): High leverage (D/E 2.2), Material insider selling (53 sells, 0.71% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OSCR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.46: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81. Prior stop was $22.80. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OSCR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.07 (+2.2% upside). Prior stop was $22.80. Stop-loss: $22.80.

What are the risks of investing in OSCR?

Healthcare gov-payer cliff: 93% of revenue from CMS (APTC premiums) (≥70% threshold). CMS rate-change exposure dominates.; Concentration risk — Customer: CMS (APTC premiums) (93.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida.

Is OSCR overvalued or undervalued?

Oscar Health, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 17.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OSCR?

18 analysts cover OSCR with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Oscar Health, Inc. do?Oscar Health is a technology-enabled health insurer offering ACA marketplace plans in 18-20 US states to approximately...

Oscar Health is a technology-enabled health insurer offering ACA marketplace plans in 18-20 US states to approximately 2.0 million effectuated members as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is substantially from health insurance premiums; 93% is collected from CMS via APTC and 7% from members directly.

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