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Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Healthcare Plans

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.91: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality.

Oscar Health offers ACA individual and family health plans in 20 states, serving approximately 2.0 million effectuated members as of December 31, 2025, through a cloud-native technology platform. Revenue is derived primarily from health insurance premiums, with 93% of premiums... Read more

$17.91-0.7% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#6 of 11 Healthcare Plans
Stop $16.65Target $17.78(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$16.10-10.1%10 analysts
$17.78our TP
$17.91price
$16.10mean
$11
$23

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.91: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 87. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d and healthcare gov payer hard block. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Healthcare gov-payer cliff: 93% of revenue from CMS (≥70% threshold). CMS rate-change exposure dominates.
Concentration risk — Customer: CMS (93.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA-5.0
Profit Mgn-3.8%
ROE-44.4%
Rev Growth17.3%
Beta1.93
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.76neutral
IV94%elevated
Max Pain$5-72.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerCMS93%
    10-K Item 1A: '93% of premiums were earned directly from CMS and 7% were from our members'
  • HIGHGeographicFlorida
    10-K Item 1A: 'Florida| 1,179,934| | 871,881'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -3.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Current Ratio
3.8
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
5.6
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.4
Bollinger
1.7
52w Position
5.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.5
Value Rank
3.6
Growth Rank
7.3

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MEarnings in 6 days
GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dHEALTHCARE GOV PAYER HARD BLOCKDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
87 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.29Resistance $18.14

Price Targets

$17
$18
A.Upside-0.7%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-21.7% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OSCR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.91: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 87. Prior stop was $16.65. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OSCR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.78 (-0.7% upside). Prior stop was $16.65. Stop-loss: $16.65.

What are the risks of investing in OSCR?

Healthcare gov-payer cliff: 93% of revenue from CMS (≥70% threshold). CMS rate-change exposure dominates.; Concentration risk — Customer: CMS (93.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida.

Is OSCR overvalued or undervalued?

Oscar Health, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OSCR?

17 analysts cover OSCR with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Oscar Health, Inc. do?Oscar Health offers ACA individual and family health plans in 20 states, serving approximately 2.0 million effectuated...

Oscar Health offers ACA individual and family health plans in 20 states, serving approximately 2.0 million effectuated members as of December 31, 2025, through a cloud-native technology platform. Revenue is derived primarily from health insurance premiums, with 93% of premiums earned directly from CMS and 7% from members.

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