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UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Healthcare Plans

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $389.57 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.8% away).

UnitedHealth Group operates two segments: UnitedHealthcare (health benefits for ~47M members across employer, Medicare, and Medicaid programs) and Optum (care delivery for 95M consumers, $31.1B Optum Insight backlog, Optum Rx managing $188B pharmaceutical spend). Revenue is ~80%... Read more

$389.57+1.8% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#10 of 11 Healthcare Plans
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.98%
IncomeYield2.26%(5y avg 1.63%)Payout66.57%
Stop $371.70Target $396.07(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$389.19-0.1%26 analysts
$396.07our TP
$389.57price
$389.19mean
$287
$444

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $389.57 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.8% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.8% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.4
P/E (Fwd)18.8
Mkt Cap$355.2B
EV/EBITDA19.1
Profit Mgn2.7%
ROE12.2%
Rev Growth2.0%
Beta0.65
Dividend2.26%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.41bearish
IV39%normal
Max Pain$145-62.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerCMS44%
    10-K Item 1: 'Premium revenues from CMS represented 44% of UnitedHealth Group’s total consolidated revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02LOW
    On Feb 24, 2026, Dennis Stankiewicz was appointed Chief Accounting Officer of UnitedHealth Group, effective March 2, 2026. He continues as Corporate Controller, a role held since April 2023. Base salary set at $550,000.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-25Item 5.02LOW
    On Feb 23, 2026, the Compensation Committee amended Stephen Hemsley's stock option (granted May 14, 2025) to add a two-year holding requirement for net shares acquired upon exercise. All other terms unchanged.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.1
Revenue Growth
3.0

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
2.8
Support Resistance
2.8
52w Position
3.4
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $348.95Resistance $404.15

Price Targets

$372
$396
A.Upside+1.7%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.9% upside)
! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UNH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $389.57 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.8% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $371.70. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UNH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $396.07 (+1.8% upside). Prior stop was $371.70. Stop-loss: $371.70.

What are the risks of investing in UNH?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.8% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1).

Is UNH overvalued or undervalued?

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated trades at a P/E of 29.4 (forward 18.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UNH?

34 analysts cover UNH with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $389.

What does UnitedHealth Group Incorporated do?UnitedHealth Group operates two segments: UnitedHealthcare (health benefits for ~47M members across employer, Medicare,...

UnitedHealth Group operates two segments: UnitedHealthcare (health benefits for ~47M members across employer, Medicare, and Medicaid programs) and Optum (care delivery for 95M consumers, $31.1B Optum Insight backlog, Optum Rx managing $188B pharmaceutical spend). Revenue is ~80% risk-based premiums; CMS premiums represented 44% of consolidated revenues in 2025.

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