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UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Healthcare Plans

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $370.81 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: premium revenues from risk-based products.

UnitedHealth Group operates two complementary businesses: Optum (health services via Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum Rx) and UnitedHealthcare (health benefits for employers, Medicare/Medicaid). Premium revenues from risk-based products constitute nearly 80% of total... Read more

$370.81-1.8% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#10 of 11 Healthcare Plans
Stop $351.00Target $364.51(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$387.27+4.4%26 analysts
$364.51our TP
$370.81price
$387.27mean
$287
$444

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $370.81 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: premium revenues from risk-based products. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 98. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: premium revenues from risk-based products
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak overall score: 4.6/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.0
P/E (Fwd)17.9
Mkt Cap$336.7B
EV/EBITDA18.0
Profit Mgn2.7%
ROE12.2%
Rev Growth2.0%
Beta0.41
Dividend2.38%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.98neutral
IV40%normal
Max Pain$200-46.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductpremium revenues from risk-based products
    10-K Item 1A: 'Premium revenues from risk-based products constitute nearly 80% of our total consolidated revenues.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02LOW
    Dennis Stankiewicz appointed Chief Accounting Officer effective March 2, 2026, while continuing as Corporate Controller. Joined company in 2016; prior Deloitte partner. Routine officer appointment.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-25Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee amended stock option granted to Executive Chairman Stephen Hemsley on May 14, 2025, adding a two-year share holding requirement post-vesting through May 14, 2030. Routine compensatory arrangement change.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.1
Bollinger
1.3
52w Position
2.6

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.1
Revenue Growth
3.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.9
Value Rank
3.1
Quality Rank
7.7
Best-in-class margins
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
98 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $271.53Resistance $371.95

Price Targets

$351
$365
A.Upside-1.7%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UNH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $370.81 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: premium revenues from risk-based products. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 98. Prior stop was $351.00. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UNH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $364.51 (-1.8% upside). Prior stop was $351.00. Stop-loss: $351.00.

What are the risks of investing in UNH?

Concentration risk — Product: premium revenues from risk-based products; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.6/10.

Is UNH overvalued or undervalued?

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated trades at a P/E of 28.0 (forward 17.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UNH?

34 analysts cover UNH with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $387.

What does UnitedHealth Group Incorporated do?UnitedHealth Group operates two complementary businesses: Optum (health services via Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum...

UnitedHealth Group operates two complementary businesses: Optum (health services via Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum Rx) and UnitedHealthcare (health benefits for employers, Medicare/Medicaid). Premium revenues from risk-based products constitute nearly 80% of total consolidated revenues.

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