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Humana Inc. (HUM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Healthcare Plans

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $305.36: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Humana provides Medicare Advantage and Medicaid insurance through its Insurance segment, plus pharmacy, primary care, and home health services through CenterWell. Revenue is 83% from federal government contracts—primarily Medicare—serving approximately 15 million medical plan... Read more

$305.36+0.2% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#7 of 11 Healthcare Plans
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.90%
IncomeYield1.16%(5y avg 0.96%)Payout37.78%sustainable
Stop $282.94Target $304.72(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$249.67-18.2%24 analysts
$304.72our TP
$305.36price
$249.67mean
$180
$333

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $305.36: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and news legal. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Humana Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-26.1% upside)
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -157.9%), Material insider selling (4 sells, 0.04% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.7
P/E (Fwd)19.9
Mkt Cap$36.7B
EV/EBITDA8.7
Profit Mgn0.8%
ROE6.3%
Rev Growth23.5%
Beta0.68
Dividend1.16%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.15bearish
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$185-39.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.7
Bollinger
1.6
52w Position
9.5
GatesA.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVENEWS LEGALMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
83 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $211.68Resistance $310.94

Price Targets

$283
$305
A.Upside-0.2%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-26.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -157.9%), Material insider selling (4 sells, 0.04% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HUM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $305.36: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83. Prior stop was $282.94. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HUM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $304.72 (+0.2% upside). Prior stop was $282.94. Stop-loss: $282.94.

What are the risks of investing in HUM?

Target reached (-26.1% upside); Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -157.9%), Material insider selling (4 sells, 0.04% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is HUM overvalued or undervalued?

Humana Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.7 (forward 19.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HUM?

33 analysts cover HUM with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $250.

What does Humana Inc. do?Humana provides Medicare Advantage and Medicaid insurance through its Insurance segment, plus pharmacy, primary care,...

Humana provides Medicare Advantage and Medicaid insurance through its Insurance segment, plus pharmacy, primary care, and home health services through CenterWell. Revenue is 83% from federal government contracts—primarily Medicare—serving approximately 15 million medical plan members. Florida is the largest single state with 14% of consolidated premiums revenue.

Related stocks: OSCR (Oscar Health, Inc.) · CI (The Cigna Group) · CVS (CVS Health Corporation) · CNC (Centene Corporation) · ELV (Elevance Health, Inc.)