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Humana Inc. (HUM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Healthcare Plans

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $238.65: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Humana is a major managed care company primarily serving Medicare Advantage and Medicaid members through its Insurance segment, plus CenterWell pharmacy, primary care, and home health services. As of Dec 31, 2025, it had ~15 million medical benefit plan members; 93% of premiums... Read more

$238.65+1.1% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#6 of 11 Healthcare Plans
Stop $222.60Target $241.88(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$211.46-11.4%24 analysts
$241.88our TP
$238.65price
$211.46mean
$146
$333

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $238.65: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 87. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Recent Analyst Cluster(4) detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: government health care coverage programs (93.0%)
Target reached (-20.5% upside)
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.0
P/E (Fwd)15.9
Mkt Cap$29.2B
EV/EBITDA5.9
Profit Mgn0.9%
ROE7.0%
Rev Growth11.3%
Beta0.45
Dividend1.54%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.21bearish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$100-58.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomergovernment health care coverage programs93%
    10-K Item 1A: 'federal and state government health care coverage programs, including the Medicare, military services, and Medicaid programs. These programs accounted for approximately 93% of our total premiums and services revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMGeographicFlorida14%
    10-K Item 1A: 'These contracts accounted for approximately 14% of our total premiums and services revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025... individual Medicare Advantage members in Florida'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-10Item 5.02LOW
    Robert S. Field elected to Board effective immediately following the April 16, 2026 Annual Meeting. Board expanded from 10 to 11 directors. Field qualifies as independent under NYSE standards.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.5
Support Resistance
1.0
52w Position
5.4

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.5
Roe
2.3
Roa
2.9
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
7.0
Fcf Quality
7.6
No competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(4)EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
87 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $174.84Resistance $246.82

Price Targets

$223
$242
A.Upside+1.4%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-20.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -169.0%), Material insider selling (4 sells, 0.04% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HUM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $238.65: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 87. Prior stop was $222.60. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HUM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $241.88 (+1.1% upside). Prior stop was $222.60. Stop-loss: $222.60.

What are the risks of investing in HUM?

Concentration risk — Customer: government health care coverage programs (93.0%); Target reached (-20.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).

Is HUM overvalued or undervalued?

Humana Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.0 (forward 15.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HUM?

33 analysts cover HUM with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $211.

What does Humana Inc. do?Humana is a major managed care company primarily serving Medicare Advantage and Medicaid members through its Insurance...

Humana is a major managed care company primarily serving Medicare Advantage and Medicaid members through its Insurance segment, plus CenterWell pharmacy, primary care, and home health services. As of Dec 31, 2025, it had ~15 million medical benefit plan members; 93% of premiums and services revenue came from government health programs.

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