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DANDana IncorporatedSell5.0·$25.00-4.65%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The stock screens exceptionally cheap at a forward multiple of 8.7 times with 21% upside to analyst consensus, but three consecutive earnings misses before a single recent beat, no competitive moat, severe customer concentration, and deteriorating price momentum make this a value trap until the fundamental recovery is confirmed by at least two successive positive earnings surprises.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value Analyst UpsideStable
  • Severe Customer Supplier ConcentrationStable
  • No Competitive Moat Below Floor QualityStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Dana Incorporated (DAN) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Dana Incorporated supplies power-conveyance and energy-management solutions to light and commercial vehicle OEMs worldwide, with $7.5 billion in 2025 sales split 70%/30% between its two segments across 24 countries. Ford Motor Company represented approximately 32% of 2025 sales,... Read more

$25.00+43.7% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#26 of 37 Auto Parts
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield21.57%
IncomeYield1.93%(5y avg 2.46%)Payout90.91%at-risk
Stop $23.86Target $35.79(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.8:1
Analyst target$41.14+64.6%7 analysts
$35.79our TP
$25.00price
$41.14mean
$46

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — Dana Incorporated

Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:26Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (76.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: single sources of supply
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)7.4
Mkt Cap$2.7B
EV/EBITDA6.2
Profit Mgn15.1%
ROE-2.8%
Rev Growth4.9%
Beta1.97
Dividend1.93%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.28bearish
IV79%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerFord Motor Company32%
    10-K Item 1: 'Ford Motor Company ... our sales to Ford were approximately 32% in 2025'
  • LOWCustomerStellantis N.V.13%
    10-K Item 1: 'Stellantis N.V. ... Our sales to Stellantis (via a directed supply relationship) were approximately 13% in 2025'
  • HIGHCustomertop 10 customers76%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our 10 largest customers collectively accounted for approximately 76% of our sales in 2025'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle sources of supply
    10-K Item 1A: 'we are dependent on single sources of supply for some components of our products'
  • MEDIUMGeographicnon-U.S. operations43%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 43% of our sales in 2025 were from operations located in countries other than the U.S.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.3
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+7.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
1.4
Roa
1.5
Moat
3.9
Fcf Quality
4.0
Current Ratio
5.7
Net Margin
7.6
Piotroski F
7.8
Strong margins: 15%Earnings quality warning: 50% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.7
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5A.R:R 3.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $24.60Resistance $37.49

Price Targets

$24
$36
A.Upside+43.2%
A.R:R3.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! momentum at 1.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DAN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $23.86. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DAN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $35.79 (+43.7% upside). Prior stop was $23.86. Stop-loss: $23.86.

What are the risks of investing in DAN?

Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (76.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single sources of supply; Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).

Is DAN overvalued or undervalued?

Dana Incorporated trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 7.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DAN?

14 analysts cover DAN with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $41.

What does Dana Incorporated do?Dana Incorporated supplies power-conveyance and energy-management solutions to light and commercial vehicle OEMs...

Dana Incorporated supplies power-conveyance and energy-management solutions to light and commercial vehicle OEMs worldwide, with $7.5 billion in 2025 sales split 70%/30% between its two segments across 24 countries. Ford Motor Company represented approximately 32% of 2025 sales, the top 10 customers collectively 76%, and the Off-Highway business was divested to Allison Transmission in January 2026.

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