Value
9.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
- ▸Attractively valued
DAN · Why this verdict
Why Dana (DAN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 8.7 times, a PEG ratio near zero, and analyst consensus implying 21% upside to the $35.79 target create a compelling valuation case — the market is pricing in little optimism relative to current earnings levels. Value | Forward earnings estimates are revised upward over the next two quarters and the stock closes at least half the gap to the $35.79 analyst consensus target. | →Stable |
| CounterThe same cheap multiple persisted through three consecutive earnings misses; the low forward P/E may reflect accurate expectations for ongoing earnings weakness rather than a genuine market dislocation. | ||
The top ten customers account for 76% of revenue and the company relies on single-source suppliers — two concentration risks rated high severity in the company's own risk disclosures — meaning the loss of any key relationship would have an outsized impact on results. Bear case | If this pillar is wrong, customer revenue concentration falls below 65% over the next four quarters as new customer relationships are established. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh customer concentration is common in auto-parts supply; long-term supply agreements with major vehicle manufacturers can provide revenue visibility even at elevated concentration levels. | ||
The company has no identifiable competitive moat, and quality scores 3.5 out of 10 — below the minimum acceptable threshold — with free cash flow at only 50% of net income flagging a meaningful gap between reported earnings and cash generation. Quality | If this pillar is wrong, FCF conversion rises above 70% of net income and quality score improves above 4.5 for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating an emerging competitive advantage. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and peer-group-leading gross margins suggest the financial foundation is not as weak as the headline quality score implies. | ||
The most recent quarter (May 2026) produced a 14% earnings beat — the first positive surprise after three straight misses, including a 69% shortfall in February 2026 and a 46% miss in October 2025 — suggesting the earnings trough may be forming. Earnings | EPS beats two consecutive quarters following the most recent print, with surprise magnitude above 10% each time. | →Stable |
| CounterA single beat after three misses is inconclusive; the prior misses were severe, and the average surprise across the four quarters remains deeply negative at roughly minus 28%, so the burden of proof for a durable recovery remains high. | ||
Volume is in a distribution phase with a falling OBV, momentum scores 4.0 out of 10 — just below the minimum passing threshold — and no clear chart pattern has emerged, indicating institutional sellers remain active despite an oversold RSI of 32. Momentum | OBV reverses to a rising trend and momentum score improves above 5.0, confirming that buying interest has returned. | →Stable |
| CounterAn RSI of 32 is historically associated with near-term mean reversion; the oversold reading in the context of an uptrend pullback may itself be a setup for a relief rally even without a fundamental catalyst. | ||
A forward P/E of 8.7 times, a PEG ratio near zero, and analyst consensus implying 21% upside to the $35.79 target create a compelling valuation case — the market is pricing in little optimism relative to current earnings levels.
→StableValue
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates are revised upward over the next two quarters and the stock closes at least half the gap to the $35.79 analyst consensus target.
CounterThe same cheap multiple persisted through three consecutive earnings misses; the low forward P/E may reflect accurate expectations for ongoing earnings weakness rather than a genuine market dislocation.
The top ten customers account for 76% of revenue and the company relies on single-source suppliers — two concentration risks rated high severity in the company's own risk disclosures — meaning the loss of any key relationship would have an outsized impact on results.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- If this pillar is wrong, customer revenue concentration falls below 65% over the next four quarters as new customer relationships are established.
CounterHigh customer concentration is common in auto-parts supply; long-term supply agreements with major vehicle manufacturers can provide revenue visibility even at elevated concentration levels.
The company has no identifiable competitive moat, and quality scores 3.5 out of 10 — below the minimum acceptable threshold — with free cash flow at only 50% of net income flagging a meaningful gap between reported earnings and cash generation.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- If this pillar is wrong, FCF conversion rises above 70% of net income and quality score improves above 4.5 for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating an emerging competitive advantage.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and peer-group-leading gross margins suggest the financial foundation is not as weak as the headline quality score implies.
The most recent quarter (May 2026) produced a 14% earnings beat — the first positive surprise after three straight misses, including a 69% shortfall in February 2026 and a 46% miss in October 2025 — suggesting the earnings trough may be forming.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats two consecutive quarters following the most recent print, with surprise magnitude above 10% each time.
CounterA single beat after three misses is inconclusive; the prior misses were severe, and the average surprise across the four quarters remains deeply negative at roughly minus 28%, so the burden of proof for a durable recovery remains high.
Volume is in a distribution phase with a falling OBV, momentum scores 4.0 out of 10 — just below the minimum passing threshold — and no clear chart pattern has emerged, indicating institutional sellers remain active despite an oversold RSI of 32.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- OBV reverses to a rising trend and momentum score improves above 5.0, confirming that buying interest has returned.
CounterAn RSI of 32 is historically associated with near-term mean reversion; the oversold reading in the context of an uptrend pullback may itself be a setup for a relief rally even without a fundamental catalyst.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The stock screens exceptionally cheap at a forward multiple of 8.7 times with 21% upside to analyst consensus, but three consecutive earnings misses before a single recent beat, no competitive moat, severe customer concentration, and deteriorating price momentum make this a value trap until the fundamental recovery is confirmed by at least two successive positive earnings surprises.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.4 |
| Net margin | 7.6 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 4.0 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 50% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.7 |
Momentum
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+7.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.8 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 56%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.9 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 3.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 9.2 |
| 52w position | 3.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.1 |
| implied vol | 0.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.4 |
| debt equity | 6.4 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 76%
- ▸Above max pain $22
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.50
Upside
+36.0%
Downside
10.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.97>1.3, MCap $2.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.4 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.4, Sentiment at 6.7, and Technical at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 1.2, Quality at 3.5, and Catalyst at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.50 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Analyst Upside
Trip ifForward EPS estimate is cut by more than 15% in a single revision cycle.
- P2Nascent Earnings Recovery
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in either of the next 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Severe Customer Supplier Concentration
Trip ifTop-10 customer revenue concentration falls below 65% of total revenue over any trailing 12-month period.
- P4No Competitive Moat Below Floor Quality
Trip ifFCF conversion rises above 70% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Price Momentum Breakdown
Trip ifOBV reverses to a rising trend and momentum score climbs above 5.0 within 3 months.