Best-in-peer revenue growth of 32% year over year and strengthening technical momentum are undermined by negative free cash flow, quality metrics well below acceptable thresholds, three consecutive earnings misses in the quarters prior to the most recent beat, and a risk/reward of 0.3 with just 2.1% upside against 11.5% potential downside — making this a position to avoid.
Thesis pillars
- Industry Leading Revenue Growth→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Flow Flag→Stable
- Subfloor Quality Thin Reward→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) Stock Analysis
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.62: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.
Centuri Holdings provides maintenance, replacement, and installation services to electric and gas utility infrastructure in 46 U.S. states and six Canadian provinces through 9,687 employees at 97 locations. Approximately 78% of fiscal 2025 revenue came from long-term master... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.62: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
About Centuri Holdings, Inc.
About Centuri Holdings, Inc.
Centuri Holdings served over 400 customers during fiscal 2025 through four segments—U.S. Gas Utility Services, Canadian Operations, Union Electric Utility Services, and Non-Union Electric Utility Services—spanning 97 locations in 46 U.S. states and six Canadian provinces with 9,687 employees. The top 20 customers, almost exclusively investment-grade utilities including American Electric Power, Enbridge, and National Grid, represented 65% of fiscal 2025 revenues, and long-term master service agreements comprised approximately 78% of total revenue.
Centuri earns revenue through variable-priced contracts: 56% from unit-priced work and 23% from time-and-materials arrangements, with fixed-price contracts at 21% of fiscal 2025 revenues. The U.S. Gas segment maintains and replaces natural gas distribution infrastructure in both union and non-union markets across the United States. Canadian Operations covers gas and electric utilities in six provinces. Union Electric and Non-Union Electric address urban transmission and local distribution under separate labor models, with Union Electric also providing heavy industrial civil, mechanical, and fabrication services. Named competitors include Quanta Services, MYR Group, Mastec, Primoris Services Corporation, and Everus Construction Group.
Show full overview
With 48% of fiscal 2025 revenues from the top 10 customers and 65% from the top 20, Centuri's revenue is concentrated in a small group of investment-grade utilities. The 10-K notes that MSAs do not require customers to commit to minimum service volumes and may be cancelled on 30 days' notice for convenience, with specific purchase orders withdrawable on 48 hours' notice. If one or more significant customers redirected work to in-house service organizations—an option the 10-K explicitly flags as a risk—revenues could weigh on profitability. Backlog under MSAs is not a contractual commitment and may differ materially from actual revenue realized.
See also: Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
From Centuri Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Centuri Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Centuri Holdings Appoints Kelly Youngblood As EVP And CFO, Succeeding Gregory Izenstark, Effective Immediately — benzinga Aug 12, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Centuri Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $29 — benzinga Aug 5, 2026 positive
- NEWS Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Overweight on Centuri Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $35 — benzinga Aug 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS 12 Industrials Stocks Moving In Tuesday's Intraday Session — benzinga Aug 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Centuri Holdings Raises FY2026 Sales Guidance from $3.150B-$3.450B to $3.590B-$3.790B vs $3.481B Est — benzinga Aug 4, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-08-15T09:37:16Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers48%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 48% of our revenues were generated collectively from our top ten customers'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-20Item 5.02LOWBoard expanded from 8 to 9 members; Steven E. Nielsen elected to fill new vacancy, effective March 20, 2026. Nielsen is former CEO of Dycom Industries (1999-2024). Routine board addition, no departure, no reason cited beyond filling the new seat.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.62: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $21.97. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $27.48 (+16.3% upside). Prior stop was $21.97. Stop-loss: $21.97.
Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).
Centuri Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 70.0 (forward 24.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover CTRI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $32.
What does Centuri Holdings, Inc. do?Centuri Holdings provides maintenance, replacement, and installation services to electric and gas utility...
Centuri Holdings provides maintenance, replacement, and installation services to electric and gas utility infrastructure in 46 U.S. states and six Canadian provinces through 9,687 employees at 97 locations. Approximately 78% of fiscal 2025 revenue came from long-term master service agreements; the top 20 customers—almost exclusively investment-grade utilities—represented 65% of fiscal 2025 revenues.