Value
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.2 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.6 |
| PEG | 7.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 27.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.01
CTRI · Why this verdict
Why Centuri Holdings (CTRI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing at 32% year over year, placing this company at the top of its industry peer group on the growth dimension — a rate that, if sustained, could eventually justify the elevated forward earnings multiple of 31.3x. Growth | Revenue growth sustains above 20% year over year for the next 2 quarters, validating the growth premium embedded in the valuation. | →Stable |
| CounterThree consecutive earnings misses in the quarters prior to the most recent result suggest that strong top-line growth is not reliably translating into bottom-line delivery, and a business without a competitive moat may struggle to monetize that growth effectively. | ||
Free cash flow is negative — the FCF-to-net-income ratio is flagged as a red flag at -99% — meaning the business is consuming cash rather than generating it, despite reporting positive net income. Quality | Free cash flow turns positive over the next 4 quarters as capital expenditures stabilize relative to operating cash generation. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh-growth businesses often run negative free cash flow during expansion phases; if 32% revenue growth is compounding the asset base, eventual cash conversion may validate the investment once growth matures. | ||
Quality at 2.4 sits well below the 4.0 minimum threshold, the price has approached the analyst-derived target leaving just 2.1% upside against 11.5% downside, and the asymmetry of 0.2 fails the threshold required for any size position. Warnings | The setup remains uninvestable until quality improves materially or price corrects to restore a meaningful risk/reward. | →Stable |
| CounterThe convergence toward the analyst target simply means fair value may be close at hand; if the growth story is intact, a new, higher target could emerge and reopen a favorable entry. | ||
The put/call ratio of 8.88 is extremely elevated alongside implied volatility at 126%, indicating that options market participants are positioned heavily for downside — a level of bearish conviction well above normal hedging. Risk | If the bearish positioning unwinds without a corresponding price decline, a short squeeze or volatility compression could drive a sharp move higher. | →Stable |
| CounterAn extreme put/call ratio of 8.88 frequently reflects genuine institutional hedging against specific known risks; at 126% implied volatility, the market is pricing material downside scenarios that may reflect information not yet fully visible to the broader market. | ||
Revenue is growing at 32% year over year, placing this company at the top of its industry peer group on the growth dimension — a rate that, if sustained, could eventually justify the elevated forward earnings multiple of 31.3x.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 20% year over year for the next 2 quarters, validating the growth premium embedded in the valuation.
CounterThree consecutive earnings misses in the quarters prior to the most recent result suggest that strong top-line growth is not reliably translating into bottom-line delivery, and a business without a competitive moat may struggle to monetize that growth effectively.
Free cash flow is negative — the FCF-to-net-income ratio is flagged as a red flag at -99% — meaning the business is consuming cash rather than generating it, despite reporting positive net income.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive over the next 4 quarters as capital expenditures stabilize relative to operating cash generation.
CounterHigh-growth businesses often run negative free cash flow during expansion phases; if 32% revenue growth is compounding the asset base, eventual cash conversion may validate the investment once growth matures.
Quality at 2.4 sits well below the 4.0 minimum threshold, the price has approached the analyst-derived target leaving just 2.1% upside against 11.5% downside, and the asymmetry of 0.2 fails the threshold required for any size position.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The setup remains uninvestable until quality improves materially or price corrects to restore a meaningful risk/reward.
CounterThe convergence toward the analyst target simply means fair value may be close at hand; if the growth story is intact, a new, higher target could emerge and reopen a favorable entry.
The put/call ratio of 8.88 is extremely elevated alongside implied volatility at 126%, indicating that options market participants are positioned heavily for downside — a level of bearish conviction well above normal hedging.
→StableRisk
- Expectation
- If the bearish positioning unwinds without a corresponding price decline, a short squeeze or volatility compression could drive a sharp move higher.
CounterAn extreme put/call ratio of 8.88 frequently reflects genuine institutional hedging against specific known risks; at 126% implied volatility, the market is pricing material downside scenarios that may reflect information not yet fully visible to the broader market.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Best-in-peer revenue growth of 32% year over year and strengthening technical momentum are undermined by negative free cash flow, quality metrics well below acceptable thresholds, three consecutive earnings misses in the quarters prior to the most recent beat, and a risk/reward of 0.3 with just 2.1% upside against 11.5% potential downside — making this a position to avoid.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.5 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -99% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 32% YoY
Momentum
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 35%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 9.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 2.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.5 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.00
- ▸High IV: 71%
Catalyst
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.6 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.61
Upside
+17.8%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Technical at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.9; the weakest are Momentum at 2.2, Quality at 2.4, and Catalyst at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Leading Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Negative Free Cash Flow Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow turns positive (FCF-to-net-income ratio rises above 0%) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Subfloor Quality Thin Reward
Trip ifUpside to the take-profit target expands above 12% as price corrects from current levels.
- P4Extreme Put Call Bearish Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 2.0 for 2 consecutive weekly expirations.